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The PGA Tour is stopping in Tulsa, Oklahoma, at the iconic Southern Hills Country Club for the PGA Championship. The last time the Tour was at Southern Hills was the 2007 PGA Championship, which Tiger Woods won. Since Wood’s victory, Southern Hills has undergone renovations. The 2019 renovations proved to have made this course longer and more challenging. One of the most significant changes they made was shaving down the rough around the greens. Pairing this change with the already small greens, golfers will be forced to rely heavily on their short game. Jordan Spieth went on to say [Southern Hills] reminds him of Colonial but in steroids.
After watching PGA Championship pretournament coverage and hearing from the golfers about how difficult the course is playing, I am excited to share how I am approaching Southern Hills this week.
Here’s a look at my favorite plays, fades, and sleepers via DraftKings DFS:
Favorites:
Patrick Cantlay ($9,100): Before I get into why I like Cantlay this week, I must let you know Hideki Matsuyama was my favorite golfer this week. Unfortunately, Wednesday afternoon, it was reported that he has been dealing with neck soreness; while the reports say that it’s a different injury than the one that kept him out of the Players Championship, I don’t think it’s wise to make him a guy who you must roster.
Cantlay is a golfer who has grown on me through the week. Like others, I often forget Cantlay is the No. 4 golfer in the world. He’s easily the best golfer to have never won a major. In terms of modeling, Cantlay projects well at this course. A lot can be said about his game that would make you gunshy. However, if you want to knock him for his iron play, he makes up for it with his stellar short game. Watching him at Zurich, he was dialed in on the greens and hitting the ball very well. Xander Schauffele likely wouldn’t have won without Cantlay.
At RBC Heritage, he was spectacular. He lost in a playoff to Jordan Spieth, but maybe on another day, it would’ve been him he was standing on the podium.
Let’s not forget, this is the same Cantlay that won the BMW, TOUR Championship and then continued his hot golf in 2022 with four straight top-10 performances. I have an outright future on him; I am going to back him heavily in the DFS market.
DraftKings Optimal Lineup (via NBC Sports EDGE+ DFS Tools):
Justin Thomas ($10,700)
Xander Schauffele ($9,300)
Alex Noren ($7,000)
Cameron Champ ($6,900)
Min Woo Lee ($6,700)
Jinichiro Kozuma ($6,100)
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Justin Thomas ($10,700): After looking at the ownership projections via Fantasy National, I will be the first to tell you that I am shocked to see Thomas as the eighth-highest owned golfer. At the beginning of the week, I expected his ownership to be somewhere near the top three or four golfers. If you want to give us mister consistency with a bit of leverage, I will gladly take it!
While Thomas hasn’t won since TPC last year, he’s done nothing but rack up top-10s. In 2022 alone, he already has six top-10 finishes. The breakthrough is coming, and I will be happy if this is the week it happens.
Playing Southern Hills will be very important to be a great iron player who gains a bunch of strokes on approach. You also would like someone who has a solid short game. Thomas is top-10 in SG: APP and is the top golfer in SG: Tot. I love that the public is all over Spieth and kind of ignoring Thomas.
Tread Lightly:
Brooks Koepka ($9,000): There was never a world where I thought I’d be fading Koepka in a major. It pains me to do so, but I am. He’s been battling injury and hasn’t had his best stuff recently. He missed the cut at the Masters, the Players, and Genesis. Three fields which were almost as stacked as this week.
Regardless of whether he’s been battling injury, I still can’t get over his poor form. Four missed cuts in eight events. Much of the reason he’s been missing cuts is that he’s losing strokes off the tee, resulting in losing strokes on approach. Suppose he does well; great for him. As it stands now, he’s a golfer who I don’t mind fading.
Sleepers:
Harold Varner III ($7,000): Varner, in my opinion, is a top-three golfer who has yet to win on the PGA Tour. I was rooting for him at RBC; he said RBC is his fifth major. He wasn’t able to hold onto the 54-hole lead. That was an event where he was uncharacteristically poor around the green, and he still almost won. That’s because he gained +7.6 strokes around the green.
He’s eighth in my model, and for a good reason. He’s a great golfer with an iron in his hands, and when he misses the greens, he often gets up and down and moves on to the next hole. His 23rd place finish at the Masters proved he could be competitive in high-pressure situations. His ownership should be relatively low—a great low-cost option to round out your lineups.
Tom Hoge ($7,100): Hello again, it’s me checking in from the #TeamHoge fan club. This dude, week in and week out, is grossly mispriced. He’s playing great golf and is an excellent course fit. Hoge has turned into one of the best ball strikers on tour. His lack of length off the tee would hurt him if he weren’t so phenomenal with his long irons. It evens out and makes him competitive regardless of the total course distance.
Robert MacIntyre ($6,900): Going shopping in the $6k range isn’t something I love doing in majors. However, Macintyre is a major beast. He’s eight for eight in major made cuts and has a game that fits this course. He’s a good ball striker who is used to playing in windy conditions. Scrambling and play around the greens will be very important; both are things Macintyre excels at. He’s not exactly a “sleeper,” but I wanted to give you a viable low-cost option to help you round out your roster.
