Quarterback
Start: Jayden Daniels, Commanders
Daniels just needs an opponent to push him. When that happens, he gives us magic. In games when the Commanders give up 24 or more points, his fantasy output ballons to 24.7 points on average.
Daniels has topped 28 points six times. All but one have come when Washington gave up at least 24 points. Each of his three 30-point games falls into the 24-points-allowed category. Because this game has a 50-point total, both Washington and the Bucs have an above-average team total on the week.
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Sit: Josh Allen, Bills
On a slate with mostly elite offenses, picking a “Sit” isn’t easy, especially when you throw out the obvious candidates—looking at you Russell Wilson and C.J. Stroud. Instead, I’m getting spicy. The Bills are massive favorites versus Denver. Vegas has them with an 8.5-point edge over the Broncos. I fully buy them beating Denver handily, but that’s not the situation you want to see as an Allen backer.
Over the past three years, Allen has averaged 2.3 fewer fantasy points when favored by more than a touchdown. This year the Bills have the eighth-lowest pass rate (43 percent) when up by seven points. I still have Allen as the QB1 on this slate, but if you’re playing DFS or any contest where ownership matters, multiple quarterbacks have paths to chase Allen down.
Running Back
Start: Bucky Irving, Bucs
With everything on the line last week, the Bucs threw their backfield committee in the garbage and made Irving a three-down player. He set a season-high in snap share (70 percent). Irving’s carry share (60 percent), route rate (56 percent), and target share (13 percent) were also among his three best weeks of the year. Irving didn’t disappoint with a 19/89/1 rushing line. Irving now gets a Washington defense that has faced the league’s lowest pass rate over expected this season.
Start: J.K. Dobbins, Chargers
A pair of blowout game scripts have obfuscated Dobbins’ takeover of the Chargers backfield. He has only seen 55 percent of the carries and 41 percent of the routes over the past two weeks. Those numbers jump to 65 and 52 percent if you remove the fourth quarter. Given that the Chargers won their previous two games by a collective 37 points and backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke even saw some action, doing so feels fair. The Texans should at least keep this game competitive, putting Dobbins in line to push for 20 touches.
Sit: Joe Mixon, Texans
Mixon ran for 100 yards five times in his first six contests, only missing the mark when he went down with a mid-game injury. He has done so twice over the past two months. All of his efficiency numbers have plummeted since Week 10.
Like Houston as a whole, Mixon has no juice left. The Texans are 2.5-point dogs to a Chargers run defense that gave up the third-fewest points to opposing backs in the regular season.
Sit: Josh Jacobs
The Packers have taken the air out of the ball in nearly every game this year. For a team with 11 wins, that was a reasonable approach to the regular season. They won’t have that opportunity this week. Green Bay is projected to lose by 4.5 points, per Vegas. The Packers have run the ball on 57 percent of their plays when they are up by four points this year. That number flips to 39 percent when down by four. The Eagles have also allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing backs and rank second in EPA per rush attempt allowed.
Wide Receiver
Start: Olamide Zaccheaus, Commanders
Since the Commanders lost Noah Brown, Zaccheaus has emphatically stepped up as their No. 2 receiver. Over the past three weeks, the veteran wideout has earned 22 percent of the team’s targets and a quarter of their air yards—shockingly close to Terry McLaurin’s numbers. Zaccheaus is also responsible for a third of the end zone targets and even a rush attempt. He’s the perfect stacking partner with Daniels.
Start: Cooper Kupp, Rams
Kupp has taken a backseat to Puka Nacua this year, but the Wild Card Round sets up well for him to re-establish himself as a top-notch fantasy option. The Vikings lead the NFL in Cover 2 rate, running it on just shy of a quarter of their plays. Kupp easily leads the NFL in targets per route (.34) against Cover 2 and is narrowly in second by yards per route (3.1). The Vikings have a great defense for real-life purposes but bleed counting stats to receivers. Minnesota has allowed the second-most yards and the most receptions to wide receivers this season. Coming off a quiet stretch of games, Kupp is an underrated bet in DFS and playoff best ball.
Sit: Marvin Mims, Broncos
Mims blew up again last week, scoring two touchdowns for the second game in a row. His target share, however, fell from 27 percent to 17 percent. He was held under a 50 percent route rate again and has yet to run half of the available routes in a week. The Bills are also well-suited to stop Mims from beating them for long gains. Buffalo ranks 10th in explosive passing rate allowed and has faced the second-fewest deep attempts this year.
Sit: George Pickens, Steelers
Pickens has run nearly all of the routes since returning to the lineup. He just isn’t earning the ball much anymore. Russell Wilson has targeted Pickens on 17 percent of his routes over the past two weeks, resulting in a 21 percent target share. Pickens had a .24 TPRR and a 27 percent target share pre-injury. Facing a Baltimore defense that has turned things around over the second half of the season, Pickens is in a bad spot to open the playoffs.
Tight End
Start: Zach Ertz, Commanders
Ertz’s 18 percent target and air yards shares rank 10th and 12th among tight ends this year. He’s fifth and sixth among playoff tight ends in those metrics. Most importantly, Ertz has become his quarterback’s best friend in the end zone over the past two months. From Week 11 onward, Ertz has seen 40 percent of the Commanders’ end zone looks through the air.
Sit: Dalton Kincaid, Bills
Kincaid got hurt in Week 10 and returned in Week 15. He didn’t play last week. He peaked at a 59 percent route rate in his three games back in the lineup. The second-year tight end still managed target shares of 23 and 26 percent in his first two games back, but that came crashing down to eight percent in Week 17. The upside is that Kincaid is a part-time player who maximizes his limited snaps and gets home on PPR value. The downside is that he runs half the routes, sees three targets, and the Bills—already up by three scores—call it a day in the fourth quarter.
