The Patriots and Steelers made fantasy football less fun this week when they named Jacoby Brissett and Russell Wilson, respectively, as their Week 1 starters.
Please ignore that I have massive, life-altering exposure to Justin Fields in best ball leagues. This is the most sober analysis I can offer right now.
Below is a look at what Wilson and Brissett under center means for pass catchers and running backs in the Steelers and Patriots offenses, and how you should value those players ahead of opening day.
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Steelers Name Wilson QB1
Russell Wilson’s short leash will certainly remain short when the regular season kicks off. Head coach Mike Tomlin desperately wanted Wilson, coming off two catastrophic years in Denver, to seize the starting job in training camp, but injuries and poor play gave Fields the chance to take the Week 1 gig. Fields, however, was only OK in three preseason games (70 percent completion rate, 7.4 yards per attempt, no touchdowns or interceptions on 38 drop backs, and 13 rushes for 48 yards).
Wilson under center likely means more pass attempts to go around for Pittsburgh pass catchers. Unlike Fields, Russ won’t (can’t) take off when things get hairy in the pocket and will instead log a pass attempt rather than a rush. That should be good for George Pickens, who has survived the Brandon Aiyuk Soap Opera and profiles as the clear No. 1 wideout for the Steelers.
I should note that Pickens, when Diontae Johnson missed a few early season games in 2023, saw 48 percent of the Steelers’ air yards and 30 percent of the team’s targets. Those are silly numbers. In a good way.
Short-area pass catchers should benefit from Wilson at quarterback. Last season, Wilson had the fourth lowest air yards per attempt. This preseason, Russ’ average depth of target was a meager 5.8. Wilson last year in Denver was solid as a short-area passer: He was 2.2 percent above his expected completion rate on throws between 1-9 yards and had a net adjusted yards per attempt in line with Brock Purdy.
With Pat Freiermuth rotating with Darnell Washington at tight end, neither guy will be reliable as an underneath PPR cheat code for Russ. I would guess Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren -- if he’s healthy to start the season — will be the primary beneficiaries of a mostly immobile Russ throwing it short. The last time Harris played with a statuesque pocket pass (Ben Roethlisberger) in 2021, he had 94 targets, the most among running backs. Of course, that was without Warren in the Pittsburgh backfield.
Russ getting the Week 1 starting job doesn’t mean Fields should go undrafted in deeper one-QB leagues and superflex formats. It’s only a matter of time before Tomlin and OC Arthur Smith tire of Wilson’s deteriorating play. There’s also the prospect of a red zone package for the hyper-mobile Fields looming over Russ.
“There’s no assurance he’ll even be the Steelers’ starter all season,” The Athletic’s Mike DeFabo wrote after Tomlin named Russ as the team’s starter. “Fields is waiting in the wings and worked extensively with the first-team offense while Wilson’s calf injury sidelined him in training camp and the preseason. The Steelers invested so little in Wilson that they would lose nothing by pivoting midseason.”
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Patriots Opt For Brissett Over Maye
Count me among the armies of NFL observers who remain (highly) skeptical of how long Brissett — possibly the most statuesque QB in the league — can hold up behind a shaky New England offensive line. We saw Brissett — who was good last time he had a starting gig — get blown up a handful of times in the preseason, sustaining a shoulder injury in the Patriots’ final preseason outing.
Apparently he’s OK and will start the year ahead of Drake Maye. It’s a decision so bad it could be described as Belichickian. Brissett in the preseason dropped back 15 times. He had five completions for 36 yards and an interception in the end zone.
Like we’ll see in Pittsburgh, the far less mobile quarterback getting the Week 1 nod in New England probably means more targets to go around for Pats pass catchers. K.J. Osborn, somehow, starts the season as the team’s unquestioned No. 1 receiver. He could be interesting from a volume standpoint in an offense that will surely be chasing points throughout the season. The same goes for Demario Douglas, the shifty slot man who in the preseason had an aDOT of 2.3 (his aDOT was 8 in 2023) and was targeted on a hefty 32 percent of his preseason pass routes. For now, Maye won’t be substituting pass attempts in the Pats offense for hair-on-fire rushes. That’s good for Douglas and Osborn.
Brissett is also a boon for Hunter Henry. Yes, Henry is still in the league, and he might be the team’s No. 2 target behind Osborn. Henry’s profile would fit well for a Brissett safety blanket. In 2023, Henry posted a career low 6.8 yards per target and a 9.4 aDOT, the second lowest mark of his NFL career. Henry will certainly run a lot of routes. You could do worse if you punted the tight end position in your drafts.