Week 8 Expected Points: It’s Cedric Tillman’s time in Cleveland

Week 8 Byes: NONE

Hello, and welcome to my Week 8 Expected Points article.

For those who may be new here and are curious about expected points, you should know that expected points come from the previous week’s games and are not projections. Expected points (EP) apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where a player is on the field when they receive said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected fantasy points based on what they did with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected (FPOE).

Expected points are a usage stat that can help us identify players to target in the coming weeks, which I attempt to do every week in this article.

In addition to the handful of players I write up, I provide the highest EP totals from the previous week for:

• 50 running backs
• 50 wide receivers
• 24 tight ends

With plenty of potential gems to target in Week 8, here are some guys who caught my eye.

Running Backs

Week 7 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
Tank Bigsby	JAC	24	-0.2	23.8
Kareem Hunt	KC	23.6	-1.3	22.3
Joe Mixon	HOU	20.7	5.7	26.4
Bijan Robinson	ATL	20	3.3	23.3
Breece Hall	NYJ	20	6.1	26.1
Saquon Barkley	PHI	17.5	9.2	26.7
Alexander Mattison	LV	17.3	-2	15.3
Rachaad White	TB	17.1	12	29.1
Najee Harris	PIT	16.5	-0.3	16.2
Tony Pollard	TEN	16.2	-7.7	8.5
Nick Chubb	CLE	15.7	-5.5	10.2
James Conner	ARI	15.6	1.6	17.2
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	14.9	17.1	32.0
Josh Jacobs	GB	14.2	6	20.2
Bucky Irving	TB	13.6	3.1	16.7
Javonte Williams	DEN	13.5	12.6	26.1
Jaylen Warren	PIT	13.4	-5.5	7.9
Kyren Williams	LAR	13.4	6.2	19.6
Alvin Kamara	NO	13.2	-4.8	8.4
Jordan Mason	SF	13	-4.1	8.9
D’Ernest Johnson	JAC	11.8	-1.8	10.0
De’Von Achane	MIA	11.7	-1.2	10.5
Kenneth Gainwell	PHI	11.4	-3.7	7.7
Aaron Jones	MIN	11.2	9.4	20.6
JK Dobbins	LAC	10.8	-1.2	9.6
David Montgomery	DET	10.2	-0.2	10.0
Kenneth Walker III	SEA	10.1	13.2	23.3
Chase Brown	CIN	9.7	-2.4	7.3
Derrick Henry	BAL	9.7	15.5	25.2
Chuba Hubbard	CAR	9.4	1.8	11.2
JaMycal Hasty	NE	8.5	7.2	15.7
Tyler Goodson	IND	8.3	2.8	11.1
Raheem Mostert	MIA	7.6	-2.6	5.0
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	7.5	-3	4.5
Kendre Miller	NO	6.9	-1.2	5.7
Justice Hill	BAL	6.8	7	13.8
Zack Moss	CIN	6.8	0.2	7.0
Tyrone Tracy Jr	NYG	6.7	-0.5	6.2
Austin Ekeler	WAS	6.5	-2.5	4.0
James Cook	BUF	6.3	2.9	9.2
Brian Robinson Jr	WAS	6	7.1	13.1
Miles Sanders	CAR	5.9	-2.1	3.8
Trey Sermon	IND	5.6	0.3	5.9
Pierre Strong Jr	CLE	5.3	-2.8	2.5
Kyle Juszczyk	SF	5.1	-3.7	1.4
Zach Charbonnet	SEA	5	-3.1	1.9
Julius Chestnut	TEN	4.6	-1.2	3.4
Sean Tucker	TB	4.6	0.2	4.8
Ray Davis	BUF	4.3	7.4	11.7
Devin Singletary	NYG	3.7	-0.6	3.1

Alexander Mattison (LV, 17.3 Expected Points)

Don’t look now, but Alexander Mattison is doing that thing that made him famous in Minnesota; which is going from a lightly-used backup to a near-every-down back that we can’t help but start despite his inefficiencies.

Over the last three weeks, Mattison has been the RB3 in total expected points (48.9). He’s also the RB109 in fantasy points over expected (-6.0) — how do you like that?

In total fantasy points over that span, only 11 running backs have scored more than Mattison, who has totaled 42.9 PPR points (14.3 points per game) over said three-week stretch. People who faded Mattison all offseason are in shambles, as the Raiders are presently treating him as the only running back on the roster who is capable of moving the ball in a forward direction.

Since Week 5, Mattison’s 10 receptions and 86 receiving yards are tied for fifth amongst all running backs. His 60 routes run, per PFF, are good for seventh-most, and his 35 percent opportunity share is tied with the likes of Kyren Williams and James Conner.

He’s averaging 3.6 YPC on the season and has averaged less than 3.0 YPC in four of his seven games played this season. Alas, it does not matter. Mattison is rostered in 69 percent of Sleeper leagues but is currently only being started in 25 percent of leagues. It’s no way to treat the RB28 in fantasy points per game, who should, for some reason, see plenty of volume against the Chiefs in Week 8.

Jaylen Warren (PIT, 13.4 Expected Points)

The first six weeks of the season were unkind to Jaylen Warren and his fantasy managers. Last season, Warren saw a 49 percent snap share to Najee Harris’ 53 percent and a 23 percent opportunity share to Harris’ 30 percent. In a lot of ways, he was the far more efficient back. Warren averaged 5.5 yards per touch — good for the fifth-highest marks amongst qualified backs in 2023 and led the Steelers’ backfield in all receiving categories.

In the four games he played in pre-Russell Wilson, things looked much different for Warren. He saw his snap share drop to 38 percent and his opportunity share plummet to 12 percent. He had, by all accounts, become a forgotten man in the Steelers’ backfield.

With Wilson under center in Week 7 against the Jets, Warren’s usage reverted back to what we had come to expect. In the win, Warren saw a season-high 15 opportunities, running 12 times for 44 yards while catching three passes for 15 more yards. It wasn’t an elite fantasy finish by any stretch, but his 13.4 expected points topped his previous season-high of 8.1 by a nice margin. It was also more in line with the 11.0 EP/gm he averaged last season.

Warren’s weekly fantasy usage has never been elite, but he was the RB29 in fantasy points per game (11.8) last season, and that was in an offense that was far worse than what the Steelers have been this season. Warren gets a plus matchup at home against the Giants in Week 8. If his usage is anything close to what we saw last week, he should have some high-end RB3/FLEX appeal for those in need of his services.

Wide Receivers

Week 7 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
Cedric Tillman	CLE	18.9	-0.8	18.1
George Pickens	PIT	18.4	3.7	22.1
DJ Turner	LV	17	-13.3	3.7
Jalen McMillan	TB	16.1	-10.5	5.6
Drake London	ATL	15.2	3.1	18.3
Romeo Doubs	GB	15.2	2.2	17.4
Garrett Wilson	NYJ	15.1	-2	13.1
Xavier Worthy	KC	14.4	-9	5.4
Justin Jefferson	MIN	14.2	7.2	21.4
Wan’Dale Robinson	NYG	14.2	-5.9	8.3
Chris Godwin	TB	14.1	-0.6	13.5
Mason Tipton	NO	14.1	-3.6	10.5
Davante Adams	NYJ	13.9	-7.9	6.0
Tre Tucker	LV	13.7	-6	7.7
Calvin Ridley	TEN	13.4	-6.2	7.2
Tutu Atwell	LAR	13.4	-2.3	11.1
Amon-Ra St Brown	DET	13	12.2	25.2
Malik Nabers	NYG	12.8	-4.7	8.1
Cedrick Wilson Jr	NO	12.4	5.3	17.7
Tee Higgins	CIN	12.4	5.8	18.2
Keon Coleman	BUF	12	4.5	16.5
Darnell Mooney	ATL	11.6	-2	9.6
Stefon Diggs	HOU	11.5	-4.2	7.3
Khalil Shakir	BUF	11.4	2.1	13.5
Ladd McConkey	LAC	11.4	-1.8	9.6
Brian Thomas Jr	JAC	11.1	11	22.1
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	10.8	-5.2	5.6
Olamide Zaccheaus	WAS	10.7	-4.2	6.5
Tyler Johnson	LAR	10.7	-1	9.7
Elijah Moore	CLE	10.6	-0.5	10.1
DK Metcalf	SEA	10.5	9.4	19.9
Ja’Marr Chase	CIN	10.5	7.1	17.6
Terry McLaurin	WAS	10.1	5.7	15.8
Troy Franklin	DEN	10.1	-0.1	10.0
Dontayvion Wicks	GB	9.4	4.4	13.8
Brandon Aiyuk	SF	9.3	-5	4.3
Marvin Harrison Jr	ARI	9.3	-4.2	5.1
Ricky Pearsall	SF	9.3	-4.2	5.1
Amari Cooper	BUF	8.9	7.7	16.6
AJ Brown	PHI	8.8	11.1	19.9
Simi Fehoko	LAC	8.6	-1.1	7.5
Jerry Jeudy	CLE	8.4	-5.6	2.8
Tyler Lockett	SEA	8.3	0.2	8.5
Tyler Boyd	TEN	8.2	1.1	9.3
Van Jefferson	PIT	8.1	1.4	9.5
Josh Palmer	LAC	7.8	2.5	10.3
Michael Pittman Jr	IND	7.7	1.6	9.3
Tank Dell	HOU	7.5	-7.5	0.0
Alec Pierce	IND	7	-3.5	3.5
Jalen Nailor	MIN	7	4.6	11.6

Cedric Tillman (CLE, 18.9 Expected Points)

All it took was one trade of Amari Cooper for Cedric Tillman to have his best game as a pro. The 2023 third-rounder had played in a limited capacity all season in Weeks 1-6 (20.7 offensive snaps/gm) but stepped in to lead all Browns receivers with 69 offensive snaps in Week 7 against the Bengals. Tillman also led all Browns receivers in targets (12), receptions (8), receiving yards (81), and routes run (47).

Simply put, Tillman was not coming off the field. He played primarily on the outside, but also took 11 snaps from the slot for whatever that’s worth.

At 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, Tillman has the size to compete with any NFL corner. Injuries slowed him in his final season at the University of Tennessee in 2022, but during his breakout campaign in 2021, Tillman caught 64 passes for 1,081 yards and 12 touchdowns while also hauling in 13-of-18 contested targets. For his college career, Tillman caught 53.8 percent of contested balls — a number that tops recent wide receiver prospects like Marvin Harrison Jr. (52.5 percent), Malik Nabers (50 percent), Chris Olave (51.4 percent), and Ja’Marr Chase (50 percent) — to name a few.

At the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine, Tillman ran a solid 4.54 40-yard dash and posted an impressive 8.72 RAS thanks in part to elite vertical and broad jumps.

Now, Tillman is tasked with (somewhat) replacing Amari Cooper in the Browns’ offense and is surrounded by a cast of lightly-targeted receivers in Elijah Moore and Jerry Jeudy, both of whom have a target share of 17 percent or lower.

Whether or not Tillman proves to be an emerging talent in the league will be decided over time, but the 12 targets he earned in Week 7 are tied for the most any Browns receiver has seen this season when Cooper saw 12 targets in Week 3 against the Giants.

Tillman gets a Week 8 matchup against a Ravens defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers over the last five weeks. He’ll also have big game hunter Jameis Winston under center, who should give Tillman a chance to make some big plays downfield.

I wouldn’t view him as anything more than a WR3/WR4 until we see more, but Tillman’s usage last week could be a sign of things to come for the remainder of this season.

Jalen McMillan (TB, 16.1 Expected Points)

Much like Tillman, Buccaneers rookie Jalen McMillan also has a chance to step into a high-volume role for the next several weeks. With Mike Evans (hamstring) out for at least the next three games and Chris Godwin (ankle) done for the season, McMillan figures to play a key role in the Buccaneers’ passing game, which ranks 13th in neutral pass rate (55 percent) and third in pass rate over expected (3.7 percent) this season.

Even in Week 7’s loss to the Ravens, it didn’t take long before Baker Mayfield began peppering the rookie with targets after Evans left in the second quarter. McMillan’s day ended with him seeing eight targets. He caught only three of those passes for 15 yards — an admittedly forgetting output, but he was also targeted on 29 percent of his routes run. Amongst receivers who ran at least 20 routes last week, McMillan’s TPRR tied for 10th highest with some guys named Stefon Diggs and Tee Higgins.

The Buccaneers get a home matchup this weekend against a Falcons defense that’s allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers since Week 3. Somebody has to catch the ball for the Bucs, and last week’s outing suggested McMillan will get every chance to be that guy for the time being.

Tight Ends

Week 7 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
David Njoku	CLE	26.4	-2.8	23.6
Brock Bowers	LV	23.4	-4.1	19.3
Will Dissly	LAC	16.6	-0.5	16.1
Cade Otton	TB	16.2	1.8	18.0
Kyle Pitts	ATL	14	-0.5	13.5
Hunter Henry	NE	13.2	4	17.2
Jonnu Smith	MIA	12.5	10.1	22.6
Trey McBride	ARI	10.5	-0.4	10.1
Tyler Conklin	NYJ	10.4	0.3	10.7
George Kittle	SF	10.1	5.1	15.2
Dalton Kincaid	BUF	9.4	-1.2	8.2
Mark Andrews	BAL	9.4	10.7	20.1
Isaiah Likely	BAL	9.2	-5.5	3.7
Ja’Tavion Sanders	CAR	9	3.1	12.1
Juwan Johnson	NO	8.7	-3.9	4.8
Zach Ertz	WAS	8.4	5.6	14.0
Nick Vannett	TEN	8.2	-1.7	6.5
Austin Hooper	NE	8	-0.8	7.2
Evan Engram	JAC	7.8	0.7	8.5
Johnny Mundt	MIN	7.5	-2.7	4.8
Travis Kelce	KC	7.3	-1.6	5.7
Josh Whyle	TEN	6.8	-0.4	6.4
Tucker Kraft	GB	6.6	5.7	12.3
Noah Fant	SEA	6.3	4.2	10.5

Will Dissly (LAC, 16.6 Expected Points)

I’m often hesitant to chase one high-end week from a tight end, but I think Will Dissly’s last two weeks are enough to give me a pass. Bear with me.

The Chargers surprised everyone in Week 7 when they “featured” Dissly in a pass-catching role against the Cardinals. The veteran tight end led the Chargers in all receiving categories in the 17-15 defeat, and his 11 targets were four more than the next closest player.

Dissly’s usage was unexpected but effective. Dissly averaged 10.1 YPR on the day, converted four first downs, and finished second on the week amongst all tight ends in YAC/REC (6.3, min. five targets).

Yes, it’s a one-week sample, but Dissly’s overall usage on offense has increased in a big way for the Chargers.

During the first four weeks of the season, Dissly had run a grand total of 29 routes while playing on 103 offensive snaps. Since coming off his Week 5 bye, Dissly has played on 100 snaps and run 54 routes, which is the same number of routes George Kittle has run over that span.

Fantasy managers should know that Dissly has been a DNP with a shoulder injury in his first two practices of the week, which will be something to monitor ahead of the weekend. If active, he makes for an interesting streaming option against a Saints defense that has struggled mightily the last several weeks.

Of course, if Dissly can’t go and you need a streaming option, there’s always Hunter Henry or Tyler Conklin, who both put up double-digit expected points in Week 7 but have slightly more difficult matcups.