Earlier this week, I published my Week 7 Snap Report, highlighting some running backs who saw encouraging snap shares in their season-openers. This expected points column will work somewhat in conjunction with my weekly snap reports.
For those unfamiliar, expected points apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where they were on the field when they received said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected points based on what they do with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected.
In hopes of pinpointing some deeper plays to make on a week-to-week basis, I’ll utilize what we’ve seen in expected points to highlight some players who could be slept on heading into upcoming weeks.
Under each position, I will also provide tables of expected fantasy points from the previous week, sorted by the most to the fewest expected fantasy points.
NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.
Running Backs
Week 7 Expected Points
| Player | Team | EP | FPOE | PPR |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | 38.2 | -8.9 | 29.3 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 22.2 | 5.4 | 27.6 |
| Kenneth Walker III | SEA | 21.9 | -8.8 | 13.1 |
| D’Onta Foreman | CHI | 19.8 | 13.2 | 33 |
| Darrell Henderson Jr | LAR | 16.2 | -2.6 | 13.6 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | 16.2 | 4.8 | 21 |
| Saquon Barkley | NYG | 16.1 | 4.7 | 20.8 |
| Tyler Allgeier | ATL | 15.7 | -1.5 | 14.2 |
| Travis Etienne | JAC | 14.8 | 7.9 | 22.7 |
| Najee Harris | PIT | 14.5 | 1.3 | 15.8 |
| Emari Demercado | ARI | 14.2 | -2.7 | 11.5 |
| Rachaad White | TB | 14.1 | 1.8 | 15.9 |
| Josh Jacobs | LV | 13.7 | -8.6 | 5.1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | 13.4 | 11.3 | 24.7 |
| Javonte Williams | DEN | 13 | -0.4 | 12.6 |
| Isiah Pacheco | KC | 12.7 | 3.3 | 16 |
| Kareem Hunt | CLE | 12.4 | 2.7 | 15.1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 12.3 | 2.2 | 14.5 |
| Alexander Mattison | MIN | 11.9 | -5.7 | 6.2 |
| Gus Edwards | BAL | 11.9 | 9.5 | 21.4 |
| D’Andre Swift | PHI | 11.5 | -1 | 10.5 |
| Zack Moss | IND | 11.2 | -4 | 7.2 |
| Aaron Jones | GB | 11.1 | -2.4 | 8.7 |
| James Cook | BUF | 11 | 8.2 | 19.2 |
Darrell Henderson (LAR, 16.2 Expected Points)
I touched on Darrell Henderson in my Week 7 snap report earlier this week.
Just days after re-joining the Rams, Henderson went from a player searching for work to the Rams’ lead running back in Week 7 against the Steelers.
His 16.2 expected points were good for the fifth-most of any back in the league, while his 13.6 fantasy points were good for an RB17 finish. For a player who didn’t spend training camp with a team, Henderson was rather impressive in his 2023 debut. He ran ahead of veteran Royce Freeman, who has been on the team/practice squad all season and was the preferred back in the red zone.
| Player | Snap Share | ruATTs | reTRGs | Total Yards | TDs |
| Darrell Henderson | 58.1% | 18 | 2 | 66 | 1 |
| Royce Freeman | 41.9% | 12 | 0 | 66 | 0 |
Henderson handled all four of the Rams’ running back opportunities in the red zone and capitalized with a rushing touchdown on his lone carry inside the five-yard line. Week 8 against the Cowboys won’t be a cakewalk, but as I mentioned in my snaps article earlier this week, the Cowboys can be had on the ground.
Even if he doesn’t go for a breakout performance, Henderson could be a fringe RB2 on volume alone.
Emari Demercado (AZ, 14.2 Expected Points)
Emari Demercado’s Week 7 performance was only a week too late. After being a top-priority waiver add ahead of Week 6, Demercado played backup behind Damien Williams and Keaontay Ingram against the Rams, totaling 17 yards on a mere three touches.
Unimpressed by the Week 6 efforts from Williams and Ingram, Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon Pivoted to Demercado in Week 7, funneling 18 opportunities his way. The rookie running back rushed for a solid 58 yards on 13 carries against the Seahawks and added another four receptions for 17 scoreless yards on five targets.
At the risk of being rug-pulled by Gannon in Week 8, I’m willing to throw my chips in on Demercado as an RB3/FLEX play for managers desperate for help at the position.
The rookie handled 18 of the Cardinals’ 20 running back opportunities on the week and was in on a season-high 80 percent of his team’s snaps. His performance wasn’t great, but it wasn’t so bad that Gannon should be begging for another look at the duo of Williams and Ingram.
A negative game script against the Ravens could also put a PPR scam into full effect for Demercado, who will almost certainly play as the pass-catching back on Sunday.
Wide Receivers
Week 7 Expected Points
| Player | Team | EP | FPOE | PPR |
| Amon-Ra St Brown | DET | 30.5 | -7.3 | 23.2 |
| Chris Olave | NO | 24 | -11.3 | 12.7 |
| Tyreek Hill | MIA | 23.5 | 2.3 | 25.8 |
| AJ Brown | PHI | 22.9 | 6.8 | 29.7 |
| Davante Adams | LV | 21.3 | -8.6 | 12.7 |
| Jakobi Meyers | LV | 21.2 | -3.2 | 18 |
| Chris Godwin | TB | 20.1 | -7.5 | 12.6 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | 19.1 | -1.3 | 17.8 |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | 18.5 | 12.8 | 31.3 |
| Puka Nacua | LAR | 18.4 | 5 | 23.4 |
| Terry McLaurin | WAS | 17.2 | -2.2 | 15 |
| DJ Moore | CHI | 15.8 | -2.4 | 13.4 |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | 14.6 | -5.1 | 9.5 |
| Mike Evans | TB | 13.8 | 6.4 | 20.2 |
| Michael Thomas | NO | 13.7 | -0.5 | 13.2 |
| Rashid Shaheed | NO | 13.7 | -6.5 | 7.2 |
| Curtis Samuel | WAS | 13.4 | -6.9 | 6.5 |
| Jauan Jennings | SF | 13.4 | -3 | 10.4 |
| Drake London | ATL | 12.9 | -1.5 | 11.4 |
| Elijah Moore | CLE | 12.8 | -2.9 | 9.9 |
| Kendrick Bourne | NE | 12.8 | 5.5 | 18.3 |
| Jahan Dotson | WAS | 12.7 | -3.4 | 9.3 |
| George Pickens | PIT | 12.4 | 3.3 | 15.7 |
| Demario Douglas | NE | 12.2 | -0.8 | 11.4 |
| Amari Cooper | CLE | 12.1 | -7.9 | 4.2 |
| Josh Palmer | LAC | 12 | 6.3 | 18.3 |
| Odell Beckham Jr | BAL | 12 | -2.1 | 9.9 |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | 11.7 | -4.8 | 6.9 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 10.7 | 5.6 | 16.3 |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | 10.5 | 9.1 | 19.6 |
| Marquise Brown | ARI | 10.4 | -2.5 | 7.9 |
| Brandon Powell | MIN | 10.1 | 0.8 | 10.9 |
| Rashee Rice | KC | 10.1 | 6.9 | 17 |
| Jameson Williams | DET | 10 | -10 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | JAC | 9.9 | -2.4 | 7.5 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | 9.7 | 1.8 | 11.5 |
Jordan Addison (MIN, 18.5 Expected Points)
The Vikings have played two games without Justin Jefferson (hamstring) and have at least two more games to go before he’s eligible to come off injured reserve. Jefferson’s absence has created additional opportunities for rookie Jordan Addison — who capitalized in tremendous fashion in Week 7 against the 49ers.
Addison erupted for 7-123-2 through the air on 10 targets, leading the Vikings and all other receivers on the evening. His 18.5 expected points were good for ninth-most on the week, but his 12.8 fantasy points over expected (FPOE) was second only to the Colts’ Josh Downs (14.3).
Two games without Jefferson have resulted in 28.7 expected fantasy points for Addison — good for 16th-most among all receivers. However, Addison’s 78.6 expected points through seven weeks rank as the 14th-most of any rookie receiver of the last 10 years, while his 105.0 fantasy points are good for fourth most behind only Ja’Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, and Kelvin Benjamin.
| PLAYER | TEAM | EP |
| Puka Nacua | LAR | 127.8 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | CAR | 100.1 |
| Sammy Watkins | BUF | 98.8 |
| Jaylen Waddle | MIA | 96.7 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | 92.9 |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | 91.7 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | 91.6 |
| Chris Olave | NO | 87.2 |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI | 85.1 |
| Michael Thomas | NO | 82.7 |
| Allen Robinson II | JAC | 82.3 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | CIN | 81.4 |
| Josh Downs | IND | 79.4 |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | 78.6 |
| Amari Cooper | OAK | 78.5 |
Addison’s early season success isn’t being built on volume alone. In fact, his 44 targets only rank 31st among receivers. His 16 percent target share ranks with the likes of Curtis Samuel, Jahan Dotson, Christian Watson, and Michael Gallup — to name a few.
Despite relatively limited opportunities, Addison has made the most of his looks. Among receivers with 40-plus targets on the season, Addison ranks 19th in YAC/REC (4.2) and 27th in YPRR (1.72). Two touchdowns of 40-plus yards buoy his fantasy scoring, while he’s also converted 3-of-7 end zone targets for scores. His end zone targets are tied for second-most in the league.
A limited target share has had little to no impact on Addison’s fantasy success through seven weeks. Which is great when you consider Jefferson is in line for a Week 10 return. He’ll have high-end WR2 upside in Week 8 against the Packers and is a near must-start even when Jefferson returns.
Josh Palmer (LAC, 12.0 Expected Points)
Like Jordan Addison, Josh Palmer’s ascent has also been born out of player injury. The Chargers lost Mike Williams to a torn ACL in Week 3, which paved the way for Palmer to step into a WR2 role ahead of rookie Quentin Johnston.
Palmer is averaging 12.9 expected points per game over the last three weeks and is averaging a solid 7.3 targets per game to go with a 24 percent target share. He’s managed only four receptions per game, but Palmer brings an element of speed to the Chargers’ receiver room that is lacking when guys like Williams and Keenan Allen are on the field.
In a Week 7 loss to the Chiefs, Palmer went for a season-high 133 yards on five receptions, which included a 60-yard reception that he nearly converted for a score. Palmer is averaging a solid 4.8 YAC/REC this season and an explosive 17.7 YPR — leading the team. He’s a
This week, Palmer and the Chargers face a Bears defense that’s allowed 265.9 receiving yards per game to go with the 14th-most YAC/REC (5.36). The volume and explosive playmaking he’s displayed in his last three games should put him in a prime position to smash in Week 8.
Rashee Rice (KC, 10.1 Expected Points)
People waiting for a WR1 to emerge in Kansas City are watching it happen live.
Second-round rookie Rashee Rice has steadily emerged throughout the season and may have closed in on WR1 status in Week 7’s win over the Chargers. Through seven weeks, here is how Rice has seen his snaps and routes run increase.
| Week | Snaps | Snap Share | Routes Run | Targets |
| Week 1 | 20 | 32.3% | 12 | 5 |
| Week 2 | 12 | 17.2% | 6 | 2 |
| Week 3 | 39 | 49.3% | 21 | 7 |
| Week 4 | 32 | 48.5% | 17 | 5 |
| Week 5 | 20 | 28.1% | 10 | 5 |
| Week 6 | 35 | 47.1% | 23 | 4 |
| Week 7 | 40 | 54.7% | 30 | 6 |
Rice saw a season-high in snaps and routes in the Chiefs’ win and posted a solid 5-60-1 line on six targets. The rookie receiver has been among the league’s most efficient receivers when targeted, as I pointed out earlier this week, and has more than earned an increase in reps.
In addition to his elite advanced metrics, Rice also leads all Chiefs receivers with three end zone targets and has converted two for scores. It shouldn’t be surprising to know Travis Kelce leads all Chiefs players with five end zone targets.
Rice is also flying under the radar as a fantasy producer as far as historical rookie receivers are concerned. His 74.2 PPR points rank as the 22nd most amongst 267 rookies since 2014 through the first seven weeks. That production is coming on a 13 percent target share and a mere 34 targets.
It’s safe to say we are begging the Chiefs to get Rice even more involved in Week 8 against the Broncos.
Josh Downs (IND, 9.2 Expected Points)
I won’t harp long on Josh Downs. I’ve touched significantly on the Colts rookie receiver the last two weeks, but I can’t ignore Downs’ breakout performance against the Browns last week.
You won’t find Downs on the above-expected points list, as it highlights only the top 36 receivers in expected points from last week. If I sorted by FPOE, he’d be No. 1, as his 14.3 FPOE led all receivers on the week. Downs closed out Week 7 with a 5-125-1 line against the Browns, aided by a 59-yard touchdown. However, he continues to earn a decent target share (21 percent Weeks 5-7) and has been the first read on 18.5 percent of his targets, ranking 38th among receivers with 40 or more targets.
In addition to his strong output through seven weeks, I also love Downs’ Week 8 matchup against the Saints. A career slot receiver during his days at North Carolina, Downs has played 83.5 percent of his snaps in the slot with the Colts this season and gets a Saints defense that has been gouged specifically in the slot.
Downs has seen six or more targets in his last three games and as many as 12 targets (Week 3 at Baltimore). If the Colts can exploit the same weaknesses every other team has found in the Saints’ secondary, we could be looking at another high-end week from Downs, whose 85.1 fantasy points rank 17th among rookie receivers drafted since 2014 through the first seven weeks.
If you’re noticing a theme of historically high-end rookie receiver production, it’s not accidental.
Tight Ends
Week 7 Expected Points
| Player | Team | EP | FPOE | PPR |
| Travis Kelce | KC | 22 | 13.9 | 35.9 |
| David Njoku | CLE | 18.8 | -8.4 | 10.4 |
| TJ Hockenson | MIN | 18.5 | 1.1 | 19.6 |
| Taysom Hill | NO | 17.1 | -0.3 | 16.8 |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | 13.4 | 8.9 | 22.3 |
| Darren Waller | NYG | 12.6 | 10.2 | 22.8 |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | 11.5 | 4 | 15.5 |
| Evan Engram | JAC | 11.2 | -1.7 | 9.5 |
| George Kittle | SF | 10.4 | 2.6 | 13 |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | 9.5 | 1.7 | 11.2 |
| Cade Otton | TB | 9.2 | 0.1 | 9.3 |
| Trey McBride | ARI | 9.1 | -3.2 | 5.9 |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | 8.5 | 10.2 | 18.7 |
| Dawson Knox | BUF | 8.3 | -4.3 | 4 |
Dalton Kincaid (BUF, 11.5 Expected Points)
The downside to mentioning Dalton Kincaid in this article is he won’t do you much good this weekend, as he and the Bills played on Thursday night. As the only tight end active for the Bills in their Week 8, Kincaid ripped off a 5-65-1 line on seven targets in the Bills’ 24-18 win over the Buccaneers and has now seen 15 targets over the last two weeks.
I won’t let the Thursday night matchup deter me from mentioning him here, as there is still a lot of exciting information on the emerging tight end.
For starters, Dawson Knox was placed on injured reserve following a wrist surgery earlier this week. In addition to missing Week 8 against the Buccaneers, Knox must miss at least three more games, opening the door for more productive weeks from Kincaid.
This has a chance to be an extremely profitable three-week stretch for fantasy managers. After Thursday night’s breakout against the Bucs, Kincaid is now averaging an impressive 1.8 fantasy points per target, tied for the fifth-highest FP/TRG in the league among tight ends.
| PLAYER | TEAM | PPR/TRG |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | 2.3 |
| George Kittle | SF | 2.2 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | 2.1 |
| Cole Kmet | CHI | 2.1 |
| Jonnu Smith | ATL | 1.9 |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | 1.9 |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | 1.8 |
| Logan Thomas | WAS | 1.8 |
| Dalton Schultz | HOU | 1.8 |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | 1.8 |
Before last night’s game, the Bills were already feeding their tight ends at a top-10 rate. The position as a whole ranked eighth in expected points (93.7) and was 14th in fantasy scoring (84.0 points).
Kincaid is unquestionably the best tight end on his team but had been limited to 60 percent snap share and 12 percent target share through the first five weeks of the season. With Knox sidelined, both of those numbers should see a significant spike, making him a weekly must-start until Knox returns.
Trey McBride (ARI, 9.1 Expected Points)
The Cardinals made a surprise move earlier this week when they placed Zach Ertz on injured reserve with a quad injury.
With Ertz now on injured reserve, the Cardinals are without their No. 2 target earner (42, 19 percent target share) and could funnel targets to second-year tight end Trey McBride.
McBride saw a season-high six targets in the Cardinals’ Week 7 loss to the Seahawks, recording three catches for 29 yards. It’s far from impressive, but Ertz wasn’t exactly smashing his way to early-season production before things dropped off after Week 4.
Through the season’s first four weeks, Ertz averaged 7.5 targets per game and 8.4 fantasy points per game. It wasn’t much, but for a position that struggles to score fantasy points, Ertz’s 8.4 points during that stretch was good for a TE11 finish.
Per the FantasyPoints.com Data Suite, Ertz has also been the first read on 19.3 percent of his targets, ranking ninth amongst tight ends (min. 25 targets).
The return of Kyler Murray (which could come in Week 8) would raise the ceiling of McBride, whose ability to stretch the field and show sure hands at the catch point made him a coveted pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. While he’s far from a high-end TE1 moving forward, McBride has a chance to stabilize the tight end position for a fantasy manager eager to get off the tight end carousel.
He’s well worth an add in leagues where he’s still out there.
