The dynamic game of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) requires much more than simply knowing the sport for which we’re entering contests to be successful. We must be adaptable, precise, and open to learning from previous endeavors, the latter of which will be the primary focus of this weekly written piece. Game Theoretic methodologies will allow us to analyze and dissect the previous week’s winner of the largest and most prestigious Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournament on DraftKings – the Millionaire Maker. These same tenets of Game Theory, which can most simply be explained as the development of decision-making processes given our own skill and knowledge, assumptions of the field based on the cumulative skill and knowledge of others playing the same game, and the rules and structure of the game itself, will allow us to further train our minds to see beyond the antiquated techniques of roster building being employed by a large portion of the field. Approaching improvement through these methods will give us insight into the anatomy of successful rosters and will help us develop repeatably profitable habit patterns for the coming weeks. We’ll start by looking at the previous week’s winning roster, extract any pertinent lessons for future utilization, and finish with a look ahead towards the coming main slate.
Winning Roster
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Lessons Learned
Confirming Theory
We’ve talked a lot about the changing dynamics of the NFL over the previous four seasons this season, but we’re at a point in the 2023 season where we can begin to turn hypothesis into data-backed fact, assumptions into confirmation. Teams averaged 3.88 touchdowns per game in the 2020 season, down to 2.43 in 2022 and below 2.30 through eight weeks of the 2023 season. This downturn in scoring has provided fewer opportunity for elite fantasy production to develop, which can be seen by looking at snapshot scoring through eight weeks.
During the first eight weeks of the 2023 season, the number of teams to score 28 or more points on each respective main slate were as follows: eight in Week 8, six in Week 7, two in Week 6, five in Week 5, 10 in Week 4, seven in Week 3, 10 in Week 2, and six in Week 1.
Of those eight teams to score 28 points or more last week, there was just one game environment where both teams managed to break that threshold. There was one such game environment in Week 7, none in Week 6, none in Week 5, two in Week 4, none in Week 3, three in Week 2, and one in Week 1. This data should reinforce the changing dynamics of the NFL and, more importantly to us, the DFS landscape.
This data confirms our theoretical stances heading into the 2023 season, where we hypothesized that optimal DFS strategy was moving away from a core of quarterback plus one pass-catcher and a correlated bring-back. Moving forward, optimal theory would dictate to utilize skinny stacks (a quarterback plus one pass-catcher and nothing else from the game) and game over-stacks (four to six players from a single game) to best leverage the changing dynamics of the NFL game.
Reiterating the Obvious
We all understand that teams putting up more points on the scoreboard provides increased opportunity for players on our DFS rosters to succeed. But it bears repeating due to the lowered scoring found in the league this season. Four of the one-off players present on DraftKings user clothsofheaven’s Millionaire Maker-winning roster came from teams that scored 31 points or more in Week 8. Furthermore, three of those four players provided elite leverage off high ownership on the week – Gus Edwards versus Zay Flowers, Jaylen Waddle versus Tyreek Hill, and Rashid Shaheed versus Alvin Kamara.
Looking Ahead
Colts-Panthers
The Colts and Panthers both rank in the bottom three in points allowed per game through eight weeks and the two play each other in Week 9. Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has gradually ramped up his involvement in the offense over the previous month of play, peaking at a 61 percent snap share in Week 8. He gets a Panthers defense allowing 4.7 yards per carry and 14 rushing scores through the first half of the season. On the other side of that matchup, Adam Thielen has seen double-digit targets in four of his previous five games, providing an obvious high upside stacking possibility. What could go overlooked from this spot is the relative changing of the guard in the Panthers’ backfield that occurred in Week 8 after Chuba Hubbard saw a massive 67 percent snap rate. That’s especially notable because the team had a change of offensive play caller heading into that game with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown being handed the keys to the offense by head coach Frank Reich. The Colts are the only team to have allowed more rushing touchdowns than the Panthers this season.
Demario Douglas
Let’s be honest, the Patriots have looked like a veritable disaster through the first half of the season. Even so, they’ve shown signs of life recently and are playing a Commanders defense allowing a robust 28.5 points per game, second worst in the league. Kendrick Bourne was lost for the season with a torn ACL in Week 8, likely opening up a significant role for Demario Douglas after the rookie played on 62 percent and 77 percent of the offensive snaps the previous two weeks. The Commanders rank 30th in DVOA against the pass and have allowed the third-highest net yards per pass attempt this season, providing an interesting path to upside for Douglas at a price of just $4,000 on DraftKings.
Cleveland Backfield
The Browns take on a Cardinals defense allowing 26.6 points per game. This play does not come without risk considering all of Kareem Hunt, Jerome Ford, and Pierre Strong saw 10 or more running back opportunities a week ago, but that ambiguity is mitigated by the matchup on the ground that yields one of the better spots on the slate. Before getting dinged up in Week 7, Ford had operated as the true lead back ahead of Hunt, with Strong not seeing meaningful snaps until after Ford was injured. There is a case to be made that Strong has done enough with that opportunity to force a three-headed timeshare, but there is also the possibility that Ford regains his lead back status once his ankle injury is behind him. That could come as early as this week, making Ford an interesting gamble at low potential ownership and in a good matchup.
