The dynamic game of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) requires much more than simply knowing the sport for which we’re entering contests to be successful. We must be adaptable, precise, and open to learning from previous endeavors, the latter of which will be the primary focus of this weekly written piece. Game Theoretic methodologies will allow us to analyze and dissect the previous week’s winner of the largest and most prestigious Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournament on DraftKings – the Millionaire Maker. These same tenets of Game Theory, which can most simply be explained as the development of decision-making processes given our own skill and knowledge, assumptions of the field based on the cumulative skill and knowledge of others playing the same game, and the rules and structure of the game itself, will allow us to further train our minds to see beyond the antiquated techniques of roster building being employed by a large portion of the field. Approaching improvement through these methods will give us insight into the anatomy of successful rosters and will help us develop repeatably profitable habit patterns for the coming weeks. We’ll start by looking at the previous week’s winning roster, extract any pertinent lessons for future utilization, and finish with a look ahead towards the coming main slate.
Winning Roster
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Lessons Learned
Optimal vs. Repeatable
We’ll start this section by saying that this is an extremely nuanced discussion. With that, how can we tell if a roster was constructed well or if it hit the lottery? This is a discussion on variance manipulation, which is extremely important to understand considering the immense amounts of variance present in this game we play.
Consider the odds of hitting a nine-leg parlay. If we simplify the math as much as possible and say that each side of each leg is a perfect 50-50, your true odds of hitting a nine-leg parlay are about 0.2%, or the same odds of winning a coin flip nine consecutive times. Now consider the odds of hitting a nine-leg parlay if the individual odds are not a perfect 50-50, which is the case in fantasy football when there are more than two outcomes for each position in our roster. To put it bluntly, the odds of landing the perfect combination of nine players that maximize scoring at each individual position, as would be the case with the optimal roster on a given slate, are astronomical.
As such, we have tools at our disposal to manage the variance present in this game we hold dear. Things like team stacks, correlation, including a tight end in a primary stack, including a running back in a primary stack, game environment correlation, and statistical analysis-based plays reduce the variance associated with a nine-leg parlay, reducing the variables that you need to get right to win a tournament. In other words, we can effectively turn a nine-leg parlay into a three-leg or four-leg parlay by using these methods, in turn increasing the hit rate by a factor of 100, in some cases. Furthermore, there has never been an optimal roster in the 12-year existence of daily fantasy, meaning we don’t even need optimal to win.
All of that to say, the roster that won the Millionaire Maker in Week 8 was constructed more as a lottery ticket than through repeatably profitable methodologies. Not that that can’t win (it obviously made DraftKings user rick12324 a million dollars), just that the user that won hit the lottery. And that’s okay, but it is extremely difficult to sustain profitability by hitting the lottery.
Looking Ahead
Pricing Remains Tight
While the Week 9 slate appears to be much more conducive to fantasy production on the surface as compared to recent main slates, player pricing remains extremely tight. And since the score needed to win on a given slate is more closely correlated to the value available instead of game totals, the score needed to win in Week 9 is likely to hover around 205-210 points. Compare that to the 190 points needed to win in Week 6, the 180 points needed to win in Week 7, and the 210 points needed to win in Week 8 and we’re likely to see a slate closer to Week 8 than the previous two main slates. Starting at the end point goal and reverse engineering the roster construction needed to win can help in roster construction decisions, which is likely to be paramount in Week 9. Through that process, finding the players that are priced below where they should be on a given slate can help identify the potential value plays required to open up additional salary.
Players Too Cheap for Expected Role and Matchup
Puka Nacua returned from an extended absence to a 26.5% target share as the primary point of emphasis of the Rams’ offense through the air, most notably operating as the primary motion man and primary schemed usage man through the air. His $7,200 salary on DraftKings is too low for that role and he presents an interesting value opportunity in Week 9 against the Seahawks.
De’Von Achane has seen target counts in games with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa of seven, seven, and eight, and has an expected fantasy points per game value that would equate to the WR8 on the season through pass game usage alone. He is playing a Bills team allowing the most running back receptions (51) and most receiving yards (434) to the position. Achane is priced at only $6,700 on DraftKings.
Adam Thielen is likely to return from injured reserve to a team that just traded away Diontae Johnson, leaving the Panthers with just one pass-catching option that has proven to command targets at the professional level. Thielen is priced at only $4,700 on DraftKings and plays a Saints team allowing the seventh most DK points per game to opposing wide receivers.
Courtland Sutton is the only pass-catcher on the Broncos to see consistent volume, with Week 8 checking in as the third game this season in which Sutton saw double-digit targets. The Broncos now get a Ravens team allowing the second most DK points per game to opposing wide receivers and is priced at just $5,400 on DraftKings.
Jayden Reed is the only Green Bay wide receiver to surpass 30 DK points at any point this season, having done so twice in five games played with a fully healthy Jordan Love. Love picked up two more injuries in Week 8 but got some good news after an MRI revealed a strained groin. The Packers get a Lions defense allowing the third most DK points per game to opposing wide receivers and Reed is priced at just $6,400 after multiple down weeks in a row.
