Week 7 Expected Points: Demario Douglas ascending

Week 7 Byes: CHI, DAL

Hello, and welcome to my Week 7 Expected Points article.

For those who may be new here and are curious about expected points, you should know that expected points come from the previous week’s games and are not projections. Expected points (EP) apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where a player is on the field when they receive said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected fantasy points based on what they did with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected (FPOE).

Expected points are a usage stat that can help us identify players to target in the coming weeks, which I attempt to do every week in this article.

In addition to the handful of players I write up, I provide the highest EP totals from the previous week for:

• 50 running backs
• 50 wide receivers
• 24 tight ends

With plenty of potential gems to target in Week 6, here are some guys who caught my eye.

Running Backs

Week 6 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
Kenneth Walker III	SEA	22.3	-1.4	20.9
Breece Hall	NYJ	19.6	2.3	21.9
Alvin Kamara	NO	19.1	-1.7	17.4
Chuba Hubbard	CAR	18.6	-3.3	15.3
Alexander Mattison	LV	18.4	-0.9	17.5
Tyrone Tracy Jr	NYG	18.4	4.3	22.7
JK Dobbins	LAC	17.6	0.6	18.2
D’Andre Swift	CHI	16.9	5	21.9
Joe Mixon	HOU	16.9	10.3	27.2
Tyler Allgeier	ATL	16.9	2.9	19.8
Ray Davis	BUF	15.2	3	18.2
Bijan Robinson	ATL	14.8	10.7	25.5
Bucky Irving	TB	14.6	3.9	18.5
Derrick Henry	BAL	13.9	11.3	25.2
Austin Ekeler	WAS	13.8	-3	10.8
Sean Tucker	TB	13.7	20.5	34.2
Tony Pollard	TEN	13.5	4.3	17.8
Josh Jacobs	GB	13.4	-1.4	12.0
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	13.3	-1.2	12.1
Trey Sermon	IND	13	-10.1	2.9
Antonio Gibson	NE	12.4	-5.1	7.3
David Montgomery	DET	12.3	8.7	21.0
Ameer Abdullah	LV	12.1	-5.3	6.8
Tyler Goodson	IND	12	-1.5	10.5
Najee Harris	PIT	11.5	8.7	20.2
Rico Dowdle	DAL	11.4	-0.9	10.5
Emari Demercado	ARI	11.3	0.1	11.4
Saquon Barkley	PHI	11.3	-3.9	7.4
Javonte Williams	DEN	11.2	-4.6	6.6
James Conner	ARI	10.3	-1.7	8.6
Chase Brown	CIN	8.6	5.8	14.4
Jordan Mason	SF	8.5	0.7	9.2
Pierre Strong Jr	CLE	8.4	1.4	9.8
Kyle Juszczyk	SF	8	2.6	10.6
D’Onta Foreman	CLE	7.2	-0.5	6.7
Jaylen Warren	PIT	7	-2.2	4.8
Jordan Mims	NO	6.4	-2.6	3.8
Roschon Johnson	CHI	6.3	-1	5.3
Emanuel Wilson	GB	6.1	2.2	8.3
D’Ernest Johnson	JAC	5.9	0.5	6.4
Isaac Guerendo	SF	5.7	4.2	9.9
Kimani Vidal	LAC	5.5	7.6	13.1
Patrick Taylor	SF	5.5	-1.7	3.8
Dameon Pierce	HOU	5.2	9.5	14.7
Braelon Allen	NYJ	5	-4.2	0.8
JaMycal Hasty	NE	4.5	-1.4	3.1
Jaleel McLaughlin	DEN	4.2	0.3	4.5
Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	4.1	-2.4	1.7
Tank Bigsby	JAC	4	-1.6	2.4
Zach Charbonnet	SEA	3.8	0.7	4.5

Antonio Gibson (NE, 12.4 Expected Points)

Antonio Gibson served as the Patriots’ lead back in Week 6 against the Texans while Rhamondre Stevenson was sidelined with a foot injury. Stevenson did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday and is trending toward missing a second-straight game as the team prepares to face the Jaguars in London.

Things didn’t go quite how Gibson’s fantasy managers hoped they would last week, as he managed just 7.3 fantasy points despite seeing a season-high 17 opportunities. He totaled a dismal 19 yards on 13 carries but did catch three of his four targets for 24 yards.

Gibson wasn’t great, but the opportunities were exactly what we hoped to see. Gibson earned 17 of the Patriots’ 27 running opportunities on the day and should see a healthy workload against the Jaguars if Stevenson sits.

In their last five games, the Jaguars have allowed 26.7 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs and have been particularly vulnerable in the passing game. The Jaguars have allowed the third-most targets out of the backfield this season and the fourth-most passing yards per game. What bodes even better for Gibson is the fact that the Patriots are averaging 5.5 targets per game to their running backs, and in his first start, rookie Drake Maye targeted his running backs six times.

Assuming Stevenson sits, I’m more than comfortable with giving Gibson another chance on rosters thin on running back options.

Tyler Goodson (IND, 12.0 Expected Points)

In two weeks without Jonathan Taylor, backups Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson have handled the share of the backfield touches. Sermon has seen 34 opportunities to Goodson’s 21, but Goodson has been the more efficient player with his opportunities.

During those two weeks, Goodson averaged 5.9 YPC to Sermon’s 2.4 and had two breakaway runs to Sermon’s one. In last week’s win over the Titans, Goodson tied a career-high with 13 opportunities, running for 8-51-0 on the ground while adding another four catches for 14 yards on five targets.

In addition to Sermon’s struggles, he’s also dealing with a shoulder injury that kept him out of Wednesday’s practice. He was able to get on the field in a limited capacity on Thursday, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Goodson’s play earned him more touches in Week 7, even if Sermon does play. Goodson’s pass-catching upside gives him a respectable floor for those who need him.

He’s earned eight targets over the last two weeks and gets a Dolphins defense that’s allowed 28.2 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs over the last five weeks — the sixth-highest total of any team in the league.

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Wide Receivers

Week 6 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
CeeDee Lamb	DAL	25.6	-9.5	16.1
DK Metcalf	SEA	21.6	-13.8	7.8
Chris Godwin	TB	21.4	14.1	35.5
Drake London	ATL	19.6	-0.2	19.4
Garrett Wilson	NYJ	19.1	5.6	24.7
Darius Slayton	NYG	17.2	-5.5	11.7
Josh Downs	IND	17	2.5	19.5
Tyler Lockett	SEA	16.9	-0.4	16.5
Tank Dell	HOU	16.7	2	18.7
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	16.1	-5.8	10.3
Diontae Johnson	CAR	16	3.8	19.8
Wan’Dale Robinson	NYG	15.8	-5.8	10.0
Gabe Davis	JAC	15.4	6.1	21.5
Zay Flowers	BAL	15.1	7.3	22.4
Demario Douglas	NE	14.5	6.7	21.2
AJ Brown	PHI	14.4	9.2	23.6
Calvin Ridley	TEN	14.1	-13.2	0.9
Noah Brown	WAS	14	-4.2	9.8
George Pickens	PIT	13.8	-5.5	8.3
Bub Means	NO	13.1	2.4	15.5
Ladd McConkey	LAC	13	-4.7	8.3
Terry McLaurin	WAS	12.8	10.5	23.3
Allen Lazard	NYJ	12.4	11	23.4
Tee Higgins	CIN	12.3	2.4	14.7
Rashid Shaheed	NO	12.1	-3.8	8.3
Stefon Diggs	HOU	12.1	7.6	19.7
Jayden Reed	GB	11.7	3.1	14.8
Jalen Brooks	DAL	11.5	-9	2.5
Brian Thomas Jr	JAC	11.2	-5.5	5.7
KaVontae Turpin	DAL	11.2	-4.2	7.0
Christian Kirk	JAC	11.1	-4.2	6.9
Deebo Samuel	SF	10.8	9.9	20.7
Sterling Shepard	TB	10.4	-2	8.4
Ja’Marr Chase	CIN	10.3	1.9	12.2
Darnell Mooney	ATL	10.1	-3.3	6.8
Olamide Zaccheaus	WAS	9.9	-3.2	6.7
Courtland Sutton	DEN	9.7	5.6	15.3
DJ Moore	CHI	9.7	-3.7	6.0
Mike Evans	TB	9.6	-4.2	5.4
Kalif Raymond	DET	9.3	2	11.3
Keenan Allen	CHI	9.3	11.8	21.1
Amari Cooper	CLE	9.2	-1	8.2
Devaughn Vele	DEN	8.8	3	11.8
Michael Pittman Jr	IND	8.7	3.8	12.5
DeAndre Hopkins	TEN	8.6	0.8	9.4
Amon-Ra St Brown	DET	8.4	5.3	13.7
Kristian Wilkerson	LV	8.3	1.5	9.8
Quentin Johnston	LAC	7.8	-2.6	5.2
Jalen Tolbert	DAL	7.7	0.6	8.3
Greg Dortch	ARI	7.5	-0.9	6.6

Demario Douglas (NE, 14.4 Expected Points)

Demario Douglas was mentioned in this article last week, but I have no choice but to go back to him again this week. Douglas has totaled 28.8 expected points over the last two weeks, which is good for the 15th most of any receiver in the league over that span.

A switch from Jacoby Brissett to Drake Maye in Week 7 didn’t slow Douglas’ production, as he managed 6-92-1 on nine targets, on his way to 21.2 fantasy points and a WR8 finish. It was the third time this season that Douglas has earned nine targets, and as previously mentioned, he gets a plus matchup in London against the Jaguars.

Douglas isn’t just soaking up slot targets for the Patriots. He’s been solid after the catch and currently ranks 13th amongst all receivers (min. 30 targets) with a 5.1 YAC/REC and is 32nd in YPRR (1.53).

This season, the Jaguars have allowed the second-most passing yards per game (290.7), the fourth-highest YPA (8.07), and the third-highest passer rating (114.4) to opposing QBs. They’re allowing 84.5 yards per game to players lined up in the slot — where Douglas has played 78.9 percent of his snaps — and allowed six passing touchdowns from the slot, the third-most of any team in the league.

Douglas makes for an intriguing Week 7 start for fantasy managers looking for that third or fourth option on the week.

Ladd McConkey (LAC, 13.0 Expected Points)

It’s easy to sleep on what rookie Ladd McConkey has done with guys like Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers stealing the limelight, but McConkey has turned in a solid rookie campaign through the first six weeks of the season.

Amongst his fellow rookie receivers (min. 20 targets), here’s where McConkey ranks in a few receiving categories:

• 32 targets (4th)
• 19 receptions (3rd)
• 219 yards (5th)
• 52.1 expected points (4th)
• 2 touchdowns (3rd)
• 27.0 percent TPRR (3rd)
• 5.3 YAC/REC (4th)
• 1.9 YPRR (4th)

McConkey has seen six or more targets in four of the five games he’s played in this season and gets a Cardinals defense that’s struggled to slow the passing game. Arizona has allowed 76.0 yards per game to slot receivers this season and has allowed the 14th most passing yards per game (230.3) overall. McConkey has 10 more targets than the next closest Chargers receiver and an impressive 26 percent target share overall.

He’s a near must-start as a WR3/FLEX play in a primetime matchup.

Tight Ends

Week 6 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
Brock Bowers	LV	17.7	-1.6	16.1
Evan Engram	JAC	15	5.2	20.2
Trey McBride	ARI	12.6	5	17.6
George Kittle	SF	12.1	10.7	22.8
Dalton Schultz	HOU	11.7	-5	6.7
David Njoku	CLE	11.3	-3.2	8.1
Dalton Kincaid	BUF	11	0.1	11.1
Ja’Tavion Sanders	CAR	11	-1.1	9.9
Cole Kmet	CHI	10.3	13.7	24.0
Cade Otton	TB	10.1	-0.6	9.5
Noah Fant	SEA	9.9	2.4	12.3
Mark Andrews	BAL	7.8	7.8	15.6
Will Dissly	LAC	7.7	-1.1	6.6
Hunter Henry	NE	7.6	5.5	13.1
Zach Ertz	WAS	7.6	3.2	10.8
Kyle Pitts	ATL	7.3	2.7	10.0
Isaiah Likely	BAL	7.2	-2.5	4.7
Mo Alie-Cox	IND	7	1.1	8.1
Harrison Bryant	LV	6.7	-1.3	5.4
Jake Ferguson	DAL	6.7	-2.6	4.1
Theo Johnson	NYG	6.4	-0.4	6.0
Grant Calcaterra	PHI	6.3	4.4	10.7
Tyler Conklin	NYJ	6.3	-3.3	3.0
Tucker Kraft	GB	6.1	-2.6	3.5

Cade Otton (TB, 10.1 Expected Points)

Fantasy managers struggling to find a tight end for this week can kick the tires on Tampa’s Cade Otton. For starters, the Ravens have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game (13.5) to opposing tight ends over their last five games, but they’re also allowing 8.2 tight end targets over that same span.

Some of that is buoyed by the Raiders and Cowboys combining for 24 tight end targets in Weeks 2 and 3, but we just saw Zach Ertz go for 4-68-0 on five targets last week.

Otton caught just one pass in his first two games this season but has totaled 18 receptions for 158 yards and one touchdown in his last four games. Since Week 3, Otton’s 27 targets rank third amongst tight ends, trailing only Brock Bowers and Jake Ferguson. His 44.0 expected points over that same span is good for fifth-most.

NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.