Week 5 was a tricky week for DST rankings with so many good defenses on bye or in tough matchups. As a result, we went just 4-for-10 in predicting our top 10 defenses, but also got solid efforts from teams like Detroit, Philadelphia, and Kansas City that didn’t hurt us. Still, our goal is to consistently help our fantasy lineups, so we’ll keep aiming to be better.
I missed on Dallas, who I ranked eighth, and Washington, who I ranked 10th, for various reasons that we should discuss. Washington was simply me over-valuing a matchup against the Bears, which I frequently say not to do. The BOD formula didn’t like Washington, but I felt that their defense was being unfairly punished for two games against the Eagles and Bills. Turns out, that was likely not the case.
I also felt that Dallas had a safe floor and would give us four or five points, even in a tough matchup and that safety was valuable. I’m sure three interceptions on three straight drives from Dak Prescott didn’t help, but the Cowboys also didn’t deliver for us, putting up exactly zero. They have another tough matchup against the Chargers this week, and it will tell us a lot about the level of this defense without Trevon Diggs.
Lastly, we need to address the questions I get on rest of season value. I really don’t believe you should be thinking about rest of season with your defenses right now. The Buffalo Bills are the perfect reason why. Just 10 plays into Sunday’s game, they lost DaQuan Jones, who was playing DT at a Pro Bowl level through four games, and Matt Milano (likely for the season), who is arguably their most important defender. After losing Tre White for the season last week, Buffalo’s defense now looks VASTLY different.
Defense value can change like that in just one week, so we really need to just be focusing on the matchups for the next 2-3 weeks and not looking ahead to the playoffs. I know there is a comfort in “set it and forget it” but that’s just rarely the way it works with fantasy defenses. You’ll only have a small handful of teams that you can do that with all season, so I urge you not to get caught up in finding the easy answer and searching for a sure thing rest of season defense.
Now, let’s see if we can get back to our winning ways in Week 6.
BOD Formula and Philosophy
Just a quick reminder of the BOD formula:
(Pressure Rate x 2) + (Knockdowns) + (Pass Defense Rate) + (%Drives ending in a Turnover x 2)
Minus
(% Drives ending in a Score x 2) + (Yards per play)
It’s important to clarify that the BOD rankings ARE NOT to be treated as weekly rankings. BOD is meant to tell us who the best fantasy defenses are, but depending on the matchup, they might be ranked differently in a given week. That’s why we have this column where I will be breaking down my rankings for each week and an explanation of why I have the defenses ranked the way I do. The rankings will take into account their BOD ranking, opponent, injuries, weather, etc., but I hope my explanation will help make sense of each ranking.
Season-Long Accuracy
Throughout the season I’ll keep track of how many top 10 defenses we correctly predicted. I know it’s not quite marking down if I nailed the number one defense each week or the number two, but it’s the most logical way I can think of to keep track of how often a defense I predicted would be a good play actually wound up being a good play. I know we always want the top defense, but I think, more often than not, if we get one of the ten performing defenses of the week, we’re not mad at the result.
SEASON RECORD FOR TOP 10 PREDICTIONS: 26-of-50 (52%)
So how do things stack up for Week 6?
The 49ers defense leads off tier one on the backs of a tremendous performance against the Cowboys. This defense always had the ability to be elite, but the results weren’t consistently there early. However, San Francisco ranks sixth in opponents’ scoring rate, sixth in turnover rate, and ninth in pressure rate against a Browns offense that I still believe is pretty inconsistent with Deshaun Watson under center. I know the Browns had the bye week to prepare, but they currently give up the third-most points to opposing defenses, I think the 49ers will be able to handle them with relative ease.
Even with all the injury discussion we mentioned above, the Bills will remain in tier one. The defense showed quite a bit of fight and really only let down late in the game after they were on the field for 90 plays because the offense couldn’t sustain a drive. You saw multiple defenders getting oxygen on the sideline, and they looked gassed which is when Travis Etienne made them pay. I don’t expect a similar fight against the Giants this week. Yes, I’m a little concerned about what Saquon Barkley will do if he’s healthy, but this Bills pass rush is fourth in pressure rate and first in knockdowns, which is sacks + QB Hits. I expect them to take advantage of an abysmal Giants offensive line in a showdown (likely) against their old teammate Tyrod Taylor.
The Chiefs just continue to be a solid but unspectacular fantasy defense. They rank sixth in opponents’ scoring rate, eighth in knockdowns, and eighth in pressure rate. They now get a Denver offense that ranks 23rd in sack rate allowed per dropback and 22nd in turnover rate. I don’t believe Denver’s defense can stop the Chiefs, which means Russell Wilson and company will be playing catchup, which could lead to the sacks and turnovers that will get the Kansas City defense into the top 10 this week.
Miami is a top-five defense for us this week after sacking Daniel Jones seven times and allowing just 268 yards of total offense. They now face a Panthers offense that has given up 15 sacks and eight turnovers in five games. I think Carolina will score points here since they are 10th in the NFL in scoring rate, but I think Miami will be able to get sacks and bring pressure on Bryce Young which will force some turnovers. Carolina gives up the eighth-most points to opposing fantasy defenses, so Miami feels like a solid top 10 bet this week.
Despite finishing just outside of the top 10 last week, we have the Eagles in the top five against a Jets offense that went back to looking pretty vulnerable as a passing attack last week. Breece Hall was explosive, and the Jets gained 234 yards on the ground, but the Eagles are fourth in the NFL, allowing just 3.4 yards per carry and allow an NFL-best 61.2 rushing yards per game. The Jets are going to need Zach Wilson to throw, and I don’t see that going well against a Philadelphia team that’s fifth in QB pressure rate, fifth in knockdowns, and 10th in turnover rate.
This isn’t quite the dominant Ravens defense of old, but this is still a solid unit. They rank sixth in knockdowns, eighth in opponents’ scoring rate, and sixth in rate of passes defended. The Titans matchup isn’t as enticing as many expected early in the year with Tennessee giving up the 15th-most points to opposing fantasy defenses, but Baltimore’s solid performance up until now, paired with Tennessee’s lack of explosiveness on offense makes the Ravens feel like a safe bet to crack the top 10.
The Jaguars defense showed up to play against the Bills. While Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs were able to impress on the statsheet, a lot of that production was with Jacksonville up multiple scores late in the game. The Jaguars are fourth in opponent’s scoring rate and fifth in turnover rate and will also get a Colts team without Anthony Richardson. While Gardner Minshew is a solid quarterback, he’s obviously not as dynamic a playmaker, so I expect a pretty solid performance from the Jaguars defense, even if we see more Jonathan Taylor for the Colts this week.
Looking for more fantasy football content? Don’t miss Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry every weekday at noon ET LIVE on Peacock and the Rotoworld Football Show podcast on Mondays, Tuesdays and Thursdays.
The Saints just dominated the Patriots, allowing just 156 yards while picking off Mac Jones twice and sacking him twice. Now, this Houston offense is better than whatever it is that New England is doing and gives up the fourth-fewest points to opposing fantasy defenses, so this is not a smash spot. Yet, this is a Saints defense that is first in pass defense rate, seventh in opponents’ scoring rate, and eighth in turnover rate. I think they should do a good job of preventing C.J. Stroud from having a big day, which will likely mean a solid but perhaps not eye-popping total.
The Cowboys are in this tier as strong fantasy defense that finds itself in a bad matchup. We just saw the 49ers handle the Cowboys, but the Chargers offense is 14th in sack rate allowed, so it’s possible Dallas’ pass rush can cause some havoc. Maybe I’m holding onto hope too much with Dallas, but their underlying metrics are still strong enough to keep them in this tier.
I like both in the Atlanta-Washington game, even though Desmond Ridder played a solid game and thwarted our Texans sleeper call last week. The Commanders offense is 29th in turnover rate, 31st in sack rate allowed, and gives up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, so we like to target them. However, this Falcons defense is fine, ranking seventh in yards allowed per play, 11th in pressure rate, and 15th in opponents’ scoring rate, but it’s not a profile I love. I think it makes them a fringe top 10 unit this week, but not a MUST ADD.
I also think Washington is a play here in deeper formats despite laying an egg against the Bears. They Commanders are second in the NFL in pressure rate, fourth in knockdowns, and 10th in pass defended rate. I believe that pass rush could be a problem against a Falcons offense that’s 26th in sack rack allowed, 19th in turnover rate, and gives up the sixth-most points to opposing fantasy defenses. It’s not a smash spot, but not a bad option if you’re in a bind.
The Rams have not been a great defense, so far but with James Conner out, I think they can be a solid deeper league option. The Cardinals don’t give up a lot of sacks, and I expect them to play pretty conservatively without Conner, so I don’t think the Rams will have lots of opportunities to put up a big score without a defensive touchdown. However, I think they’re a safe option this week.
The Lions and Bucs both find themselves in tier three on the backs of their defensive play up until this point rather than having a cushy matchup. The Lions find themselves just inside of the top 10 after a solid showing last week that was hurt by two garbage time touchdown drives by Carolina after Detroit had built up a 20 point lead. Of course, those are situations that can happen, and we need to account for that. Still, this is a Lions defense that is a fringe top 10 unit, ranking 11th in knockdowns, 14th in pressure rate, 14th in turnover rate, and 14th in opponents’ scoring rate. They’re facing a Tampa Bay offense that has, up until now, not given up a lot of sacks and done a decent job moving the ball, so I don’t love this play; however, I think Tampa benefited from a soft early schedule since they allowed three turnovers and three sacks in games against the Eagles and Saints. Granted, those aren’t terrible numbers, but it’s enough to make us more confident in this Lions defense in deeper formats.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay leads the NFL in turnover rate and gets a Lions offense that’s 16th in turnover rate. The Lions were without Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown last week, which keeps Tampa Bay in tier three with Gibbs out and Sam LaPorta potentially not 100%.
The Colts and Patriots are interesting because it feels like they should both be ranked higher. The Raiders give up the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, and the Jaguars give up the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Additionally, both New England and Indianapolis have been strong defenses in the past. However, so far the Patriots rank 13th in pressure rate while the Colts are 21st. The Colts are 17th in turnover rate while the Patriots are 31st. The Colts are ninth in knockdowns, but the Patriots are 26th. The Patriots are 13th in opponent’s scoring rate, while the Colts are 16th. Through five weeks, they’re playing as middle of the pack defenses, and since they both are in good matchups, we can use them in deeper leagues, but they feel risky in shallow formats.
I also get the allure of playing the Vikings and Raiders since they’re matchups are so good, but I usually want to avoid defenses that have not shown us anything on the field on their own.
I would prefer not to play any of these defenses this week if I had my choice. Especially the one who don’t have a game.
As I mentioned above, I will update and repost this article on Sunday morning in case there are any changes with injuries or weather reports, etc. Until then, good luck to all this week!
