Week 5 Expected Points: Young receivers ready to erupt

Week 5 Byes: DET, LAC, PHI, and TEN

Running Backs

Week 4 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
Alvin Kamara	NO	26.6	-1.7	24.9
Derrick Henry	BAL	24.3	11.6	35.9
Chuba Hubbard	CAR	23.4	-1.3	22.1
Aaron Jones	MIN	22.1	-4.2	17.9
Tony Pollard	TEN	20	-1.2	18.8
Kenneth Walker III	SEA	19.8	13.8	33.6
Jonathan Taylor	IND	18.7	1.1	19.8
D’Andre Swift	CHI	18.6	10.9	29.5
Chase Brown	CIN	18.6	4.6	23.2
Jordan Mason	SF	18.4	5.6	24.0
Kyren Williams	LAR	17.4	3	20.4
Brian Robinson Jr	WAS	17.2	3.1	20.3
Najee Harris	PIT	16.3	-6	10.3
Zack Moss	CIN	16	1.8	17.8
Saquon Barkley	PHI	15.8	-2.2	13.6
Jerome Ford	CLE	15.7	-0.2	15.5
Bucky Irving	TB	14.7	-2.2	12.5
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	13.7	-3	10.7
David Montgomery	DET	13.1	1.9	15.0
Josh Jacobs	GB	13.1	-1.3	11.8
James Conner	ARI	12.7	5.6	18.3
JK Dobbins	LAC	12.7	-3.5	9.2
Javonte Williams	DEN	12.4	-2.4	10.0
De’Von Achane	MIA	12.1	-6.2	5.9
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	11.8	8	19.8
Tyjae Spears	TEN	11.1	0.8	11.9
Justice Hill	BAL	11	10.6	21.6
Kareem Hunt	KC	10.7	-0.2	10.5
Zamir White	LV	10.4	-5.4	5.0
Dare Ogunbowale	HOU	10.2	5.2	15.4
Bijan Robinson	ATL	9.2	2.2	11.4
Travis Etienne	JAC	8.7	-1.7	7.0
Rachaad White	TB	8.6	1.8	10.4
Antonio Gibson	NE	8.4	2.5	10.9
Rico Dowdle	DAL	8	5.1	13.1
Zach Charbonnet	SEA	7.7	2.7	10.4
Miles Sanders	CAR	7.7	-0.1	7.6
Cam Akers	HOU	7	-1.7	5.3
Tank Bigsby	JAC	6.7	2.3	9.0
Tyler Allgeier	ATL	6.6	3.4	10.0
Roschon Johnson	CHI	6.1	2.5	8.6
Jeremy McNichols	WAS	5.9	14.5	20.4
Braelon Allen	NYJ	5.8	-0.2	5.6
James Cook	BUF	5.7	0.1	5.8
Jaleel McLaughlin	DEN	5.7	-0.1	5.6
Cordarrelle Patterson	PIT	5.6	2.6	8.2
Trey Benson	ARI	4.6	0.4	5.0
Samaje Perine	KC	4.5	2.9	7.4
Alexander Mattison	LV	3.5	2.5	6.0
Ty Johnson	BUF	2.1	4.2	6.3

Kareem Hunt (KC, 10.7 Expected Points)

After being away from the game throughout training camp and the first three weeks of the regular season, Kareem Hunt stepped into the Chiefs’ backfield and immediately took over as the RB1.

The volume he saw against the Chargers suggests he isn’t going away, either. Apologies to the Carson Steele truthers.

In his return to Kansas City, Hunt, 29, ran 14 times for 69 yards (4.9 YPC), and caught two passes for another 16 yards. His 11 routes run were only four fewer than Samaje Perine (15) ran, but Perine failed to draw a target in the victory.

Perine did handle the team’s only rush attempt in the green zone, which he punched in for a two-yard score, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Hunt earn more opportunities in the green zone as he further acclimates himself to the offense and continues to get into football shape.

Hunt can be started where needed in Week 5 and is ranked as RotoPat’s RB19 for the week.

Antonio Gibson (NE, 8.4 Expected Points)

Antonio Gibson is steadily encroaching on Rhamondre Stevenson’s workload. His 8.4 expected fantasy points were the most he’s had all season, while his 10.9 PPR points marked the second time in three weeks that he exceeded double-digit fantasy points.

Through four games, Gibson has totaled 237 scoreless yards from scrimmage while averaging a career-best 6.6 yards per touch. It’s worth noting that 95 of those yards came on two of his 36 touches, but the Patriots have been impressed with Gibsons’ reps and are reportedly entertaining giving him more touches going forward after Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled for the fourth time in four games last week.

Gibson has had fumbling issues of his own throughout his career. While he may not be the cure to the team’s fumbling woes, the Patriots giving him a more extended look could bode well for fantasy purposes. It may be too early to trust Gibson in Week 5’s matchup against the Dolphins, but fantasy managers needing backfield help may want to consider stashing him where available.

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Wide Receivers

Week 4 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
Nico Collins	HOU	26.5	6.6	33.1
Mike Evans	TB	26.1	-2.7	23.4
Malik Nabers	NYG	24.8	-1.7	23.1
George Pickens	PIT	23.6	-5.3	18.3
Wan’Dale Robinson	NYG	23.5	-5.4	18.1
Diontae Johnson	CAR	21.9	-0.6	21.3
Rashid Shaheed	NO	21.4	-3.7	17.7
Dontayvion Wicks	GB	20.8	4	24.8
DK Metcalf	SEA	20.5	-3.1	17.4
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	20.4	-7.3	13.1
Christian Kirk	JAC	20.3	-1.2	19.1
Drake London	ATL	18.2	-5.8	12.4
Xavier Legette	CAR	17.5	2.1	19.6
Stefon Diggs	HOU	17.3	1.2	18.5
Chris Olave	NO	16.5	0.2	16.7
Tyler Lockett	SEA	16.3	-5.2	11.1
Brian Thomas Jr	JAC	16.2	5.7	21.9
Jakobi Meyers	LV	16.2	-6.3	9.9
Josh Downs	IND	15.9	6.3	22.2
Chris Godwin	TB	15.7	-2.8	12.9
Terry McLaurin	WAS	15.6	2.6	18.2
Michael Pittman Jr	IND	15.4	1.9	17.3
Tre Tucker	LV	15.2	0.2	15.4
CeeDee Lamb	DAL	15	8.6	23.6
Courtland Sutton	DEN	14.9	0.1	15.0
Tee Higgins	CIN	14.6	-2.6	12.0
Jayden Reed	GB	14.5	12.6	27.1
Jauan Jennings	SF	13.6	-1.8	11.8
Jordan Whittington	LAR	13.3	-1.1	12.2
Jerry Jeudy	CLE	13.2	0	13.2
Deebo Samuel	SF	13.1	-2.9	10.2
Amon-Ra St Brown	DET	12.9	8	20.9
Justin Jefferson	MIN	12.8	7.7	20.5
Allen Lazard	NYJ	12.7	-1.9	10.8
Garrett Wilson	NYJ	12.5	-3.4	9.1
Marvin Harrison Jr	ARI	12.2	3.3	15.5
DJ Moore	CHI	12.1	-0.9	11.2
Ladd McConkey	LAC	11.4	6.3	17.7
Ray-Ray McCloud	ATL	11.1	0.1	11.2
Ja’Marr Chase	CIN	10.7	6.8	17.5
Tutu Atwell	LAR	10.5	1.7	12.2
Olamide Zaccheaus	WAS	10	4.5	14.5
Mike Williams	NYJ	8.1	2.6	10.7
Parris Campbell	PHI	8	3.7	11.7
Jordan Addison	MIN	7.9	15	22.9
Darius Slayton	NYG	7.8	0.8	8.6
Khalil Shakir	BUF	7.7	2.5	10.2
Trey Palmer	TB	5.8	5.8	11.6
Xavier Worthy	KC	5.4	10.9	16.3
Jameson Williams	DET	2.8	13.2	16.0

Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG, 23.5 Expected Fantasy Points)

Are fantasy managers paying attention to what Wan’Dale Robinson is doing with the Giants?

The third-year receiver is being forced to play in the shadow of Malik Nabers, but Robinson is the current WR29 in fantasy points per game and is the WR5 with 63.0 expected fantasy points. He’s also fourth amongst all receivers in targets (38) and is fifth in receptions (26).

Despite these impressive totals, Robinson is still available in 38 percent of Sleeper leagues.

Robinson has only one top-24 fantasy finish on the season but has totaled double-digit fantasy points in three of his four games.

With Nabers (concussion) looking like a long shot to play in Week 5 against the Seahawks, Robinson is setting up as a smash in PPR leagues.

In the unlikely chance you’re reading this and notice your league is sleeping on Robinson — which obviously would never happen — stop what you’re doing, add him, and profit in Week 5.

Dontayvion Wicks (GB, 20.8 Expected Points)

An ankle injury to Christian Watson forced second-year receiver Dontayvion Wicks into an unexpected role in Week 4 against the Vikings.

After running just 38 routes through the first three weeks of the season, Wicks stepped in to run 45 routes in last week’s loss while leading the Packers in targets (13) and finishing second in receiving yards (78). His two receiving touchdowns also led the team.

Wicks finished the week as the WR3 in PPR leagues with 24.8 fantasy points.

A fifth-round pick of the 2023 draft class, Wicks has been a surprisingly busy player when given the opportunity. Curious as to how busy, I dove into his TPRR earlier this week and discovered that since 2023, Wicks has been targeted on 21.5 percent of his routes, which ranks 33rd amongst 92 receivers over that span (min. 50 targets). It ranks closely behind Jayden Reed, who has a TPRR of 22.7 percent.

In the six games he’s started in his career — including playoffs, Wicks has a TPRR of 21.1 percent.

Wicks and the Packers get a plus fantasy matchup in Week 5 against a Rams team that’s allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season. Per FantasyPoints.com, the Rams have also allowed eight receptions to go for 20-plus yards — the second-highest total of any team in the league. I love Wicks in this matchup, and believe there’s a chance he finally snatches a permanent role in Green Bay’s offense with a strong stretch of games during Watson’s absence.

Tre Tucker (LV, 15.2 Expected Points)

Tre Tucker has now totaled 14.4 and 15.2 expected fantasy points over the last two weeks and is averaging 19.0 fantasy points per game over that span. After seeing just five targets through the first two weeks of the season, Tucker has gone for 12-137-1 on 15 targets since Week 3 and should continue to see an increased role, with Davante Adams likely on his way out.

Per FantasyPoints.com, amongst receivers with at least 15 targets since Week 3, Tucker ranks 13th in YPRR (2.17), ninth in yards per target (9.13), and seventh in YAC/REC (4.75). He was also the first read on 11 of his 15 targets — tying Brandon Aiyuk and Tyler Lockett and ranks 22nd in TPRR (23.8 percent)

Tucker blazed a 4.40 40-yard dash at the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine and also tested well in explosiveness drills. He’s clearly found a role in the Raiders’ passing game and is worth a dart throw as a WR3/WR4 in a tough matchup against the Broncos.

Like Wan’Dale Robinson, Tucker is also being slept on in fantasy leagues. He’s currently rostered in just 34 percent of leagues on Sleeper, but is the WR39 in fantasy points per game (11.4).

Tight Ends

Week 4 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
Tucker Kraft	GB	15.5	3.8	19.3
Cade Otton	TB	14.6	-3.4	11.2
Dallas Goedert	PHI	12.8	0.4	13.2
Travis Kelce	KC	12.3	3.6	15.9
Tyler Conklin	NYJ	12.1	-6.4	5.7
Pat Freiermuth	PIT	11	5.7	16.7
Colby Parkinson	LAR	10.6	-3.3	7.3
Jake Ferguson	DAL	10.3	1.6	11.9
Dalton Kincaid	BUF	10	-0.3	9.7
Dalton Schultz	HOU	9.6	-3.2	6.4
Blake Whiteheart	CLE	7.9	2.4	10.3
George Kittle	SF	6.8	7.7	14.5
Noah Gray	KC	5.8	2.2	8.0
Erick All	CIN	5.8	1	6.8
Sam LaPorta	DET	5.7	3.6	9.3
Zach Ertz	WAS	5.7	1.5	7.2
Josh Oliver	MIN	5.4	3.6	9.0
Taysom Hill	NO	5.3	9.1	14.4
Brock Bowers	LV	4.7	0.4	5.1
Cole Kmet	CHI	4.5	1.9	6.4
AJ Barner	SEA	4.2	6.5	10.7
Austin Hooper	NE	4	5.3	9.3
Darnell Washington	PIT	3.2	1.9	5.1
Drew Ogletree	IND	2.2	6.3	8.5

Tyler Conklin (NYJ, 12.1 Expected Points)

Despite last week’s flop (5.7 fantasy points, TE22), I’m willing to tout Tyler Conklin as a viable streaming option again in Week 5.

For starters, the Vikings have allowed the sixth most fantasy points to tight ends this season. On top of that, Conklin also saw a season-high eight targets in last week’s loss to the Broncos and has been targeted 14 times over the last two weeks.

Conklin’s 24.0 expected points since Week 3 are the fifth-most of any tight end in the league, while his 84 routes run over that span lead all players at the position and are eight more than the next closest player. The biggest concern for Conklin is the same concern we have for all Jets and Vikings players this week.

With this game being played in London, kick-off is slated for 9:30 AM EST. We’ve seen teams struggle in these overseas games before, making fantasy points hard to come by. However, if you’re desperate for help at the position, Conklin’s volume suggests he’s developing a growing trust with Aaron Rodgers. Another week of five-plus targets should bode well for his fantasy outlook at a position that currently has just six players averaging 10-plus fantasy points per game.

NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.