Earlier this week, I published my Week 3 Snap Report, highlighting some running backs who saw encouraging snap shares in their season-openers. This expected points column will work somewhat in conjunction with my weekly snap reports.
For those unfamiliar, expected points apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where they were on the field when they received said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected points based on what they do with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected.
In hopes of pinpointing some deeper plays to make on a week-to-week basis, I’ll utilize what we’ve seen in expected points to highlight some players who could be slept on heading into upcoming weeks.
Under each position, I will also provide tables of expected fantasy points from the previous week, sorted by the most to the fewest expected fantasy points.
NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.
Running Backs
Week 3 Expected Points
| Player | Team | EP | FPOE | PPR |
| Alexander Mattison | MIN | 28.7 | -11.2 | 17.5 |
| Isiah Pacheco | KC | 21.9 | -6.1 | 15.8 |
| Miles Sanders | CAR | 20.6 | -3.4 | 17.2 |
| Kenneth Walker III | SEA | 20.5 | 10.1 | 30.6 |
| Raheem Mostert | MIA | 20.5 | 24.7 | 45.2 |
| Zack Moss | IND | 19.8 | 2.7 | 22.5 |
| De’Von Achane | MIA | 18.9 | 32.4 | 51.3 |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | 18.2 | 4.7 | 22.9 |
| Josh Jacobs | LV | 17.6 | -6.6 | 11.0 |
| Tony Pollard | DAL | 17 | -1.9 | 15.1 |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | 16.6 | -8.1 | 8.5 |
| Travis Etienne | JAC | 16 | 1.8 | 17.8 |
| Dameon Pierce | HOU | 14.6 | 0.3 | 14.9 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 14 | -6.8 | 7.2 |
| James Cook | BUF | 13.7 | -0.5 | 13.2 |
| Joe Mixon | CIN | 13.4 | 0.6 | 14.0 |
| Rachaad White | TB | 13.4 | -4.2 | 9.2 |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | 13.2 | -3.2 | 10.0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 13.2 | -4 | 9.2 |
| James Conner | ARI | 13.2 | 6.4 | 19.6 |
| D’Andre Swift | PHI | 11.5 | 3.3 | 14.8 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | 10.8 | 1.9 | 12.7 |
| Jerome Ford | CLE | 10.4 | 8.7 | 19.1 |
| Joshua Kelley | LAC | 10.4 | -7.7 | 2.7 |
Isiah Pacheco (KC, 21.9 Expected Points)
In the Chiefs’ 41-10 win over the Bears, Isiah Pacheco needed only three quarters of football to finish with a career-high 21.9 points. Whether it’s being driven by game script or a desire to get him more involved in the offense, Pacheco has seen his opportunities steadily increase over each of the first three weeks and handled the ball a season-high 15 times against the Bears, totaling 78 yards from scrimmage and one touchdown. His 15.8 fantasy points were good for an RB12 finish on the week.
Pacheco has handled 23 percent of the Chiefs’ offensive opportunities this season — leading the team. Clyde Edward-Helaire ranks second behind Pacheco with a 13 percent opportunity share but had nine carries in the fourth quarter against the Bears while starters were sidelined. Those nine carries make up 33.6 percent of Edward-Helaire’s 26 opportunities through three weeks.
It’s also worth noting that Pacheco’s nine targets are one more than Jerick McKinnon’s eight. Pacheco is also edging out McKinnon in routes run at 43-39 and has yet to run fewer routes than McKinnon in a game this season.
Pacheco has the looks of a high-end RB1 and gets a Week 4 matchup against a Jets defense that’s allowed 21.7 fantasy points per game to running backs this season. That game, of course, is being played on Sunday Night Football on NBC.
I’ve been waiting all day for it.
Miles Sanders (CAR, 20.6 Expected Points)
Nobody is going to be blown away by Miles Sanders’ efficiency. In fact, it might just leave you sick.
Still, Sanders has had 13.1 expected points or more in every game he’s played this season, leading the Panthers’ backfield with a 33 percent opportunity share tied for ninth-best among running backs.
Sanders is averaging an underwhelming 3.4 yards per carry and has only one rushing touchdown on the season. But the Panthers have stayed true to their word regarding his target volume. His 20 targets lead all running backs, and he’s currently on pace for 68 receptions for 385 yards. The 113 targets he’s on track for would be good for the sixth-most targets any running back has seen since 2018.
A PPR scheme may be unfolding right before our eyes with Sanders. Despite a poor YPC, being ninth-worst in rush yards over expected (-28), and ranking 44th in YCO/ATT (2.22), Sanders is averaging 12.9 fantasy points per game, which is good for RB19 on the season. He has also seen five red-zone opportunities to Chuba Hubbard’s two, although neither are great numbers for an offense that ranks 24th in points per game (18.0).
Sanders could be challenged in Week 4 by a Vikings defense allowing 16.3 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs but is buoyed by a Week 2 thrashing from the Eagles and D’Andre Swift.
De’Von Achane (MIA, 18.9 Expected Points)
De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert gave fantasy managers a performance to remember in Week 3 when the Dolphins downed the Broncos 70-20. Achane and Mostert had the fantasy week of a lifetime when the two combined for 96.5 PPR points while totaling 375 yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns
Achane understandably became the top waiver wire claim in re-draft leagues after his outing, but how much can we rely on him going forward?
Denny Carter touched on Achane’s performance in his regression files article earlier this week, imploring fantasy managers who acquired the explosive rookie to temper expectations in Week 4 against the Bills. I take no pleasure in reporting Denny is on to something here.
Achane’s 18.9 expected points ranked seventh in the league amongst running backs last week — a very solid total that should have us excited for Week 4. However, his 32.4 fantasy points over expected were out of this world. For some perspective on how insane 32.4 fantasy points over expected in a game is, Christian McCaffrey is third with 21.9 FPOE this season, suggesting he’s been the third-most efficient back with his opportunities all year.
Who are the top two backs in FPOE through four weeks? Raheem Mostert (41.5) and De’Von Achane (32.2).
Achane was one of the most explosive players in the 2023 draft class and brings elite track speed to the table. Those who went out and acquired him should absolutely be looking to start him in Week 4. Even when the efficiency inevitably regresses, the volume (22 touches) — at least for one week — was there.
Looking for more fantasy football content? Rotoworld has you covered. Watch Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry weekdays at noon ET LIVE on Peacock and the Rotoworld Football Show on Mondays, Tuesdays and Thursdays wherever you get your podcasts.
Wide Receivers
Week 3 Expected Points
| Player | Team | EP | FPOE | PPR |
| Davante Adams | LV | 37.1 | 5.1 | 42.2 |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | 33 | 13 | 46 |
| AJ Brown | PHI | 29.2 | -7.1 | 22.1 |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | 25.3 | 2.6 | 27.9 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | CIN | 24 | 2.1 | 26.1 |
| Adam Thielen | CAR | 21.7 | 9.8 | 31.5 |
| Romeo Doubs | GB | 21.2 | -2.9 | 18.3 |
| Tyreek Hill | MIA | 20.4 | 10.3 | 30.7 |
| Deebo Samuel | SF | 20.4 | 4.7 | 25.1 |
| Amon-Ra St Brown | DET | 19.6 | 0 | 19.6 |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | 19.1 | 4 | 23.1 |
| Mike Evans | TB | 19.1 | -2.1 | 17.0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | LV | 19 | -1.5 | 17.5 |
| Tutu Atwell | LAR | 19 | -1.8 | 17.2 |
| Josh Downs | IND | 18.7 | -5 | 13.7 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | 18.1 | 1 | 19.1 |
| Chris Olave | NO | 18.1 | 0.3 | 18.4 |
| Michael Pittman Jr | IND | 18.1 | -1.4 | 16.7 |
| DJ Chark | CAR | 17.4 | 1.2 | 18.6 |
| Rondale Moore | ARI | 17.2 | -1 | 16.2 |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | 15.7 | -5.9 | 9.8 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | 15.3 | -2.3 | 13.0 |
| Elijah Moore | CLE | 14.9 | -1.1 | 13.8 |
| Michael Thomas | NO | 14.8 | -3.8 | 11.0 |
| Tyler Boyd | CIN | 14.5 | -5.6 | 8.9 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | 14.3 | -4.1 | 10.2 |
| Marquise Brown | ARI | 14 | 5.1 | 19.1 |
| Tyler Lockett | SEA | 14 | -5.6 | 8.4 |
| Jayden Reed | GB | 13.8 | -4.5 | 9.3 |
| Amari Cooper | CLE | 13.7 | 10.9 | 24.6 |
| Mike Williams | LAC | 13.1 | 12 | 25.1 |
| DK Metcalf | SEA | 13 | 4.2 | 17.2 |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | 12.9 | -1.7 | 11.2 |
| Jerry Jeudy | DEN | 12.8 | 0.3 | 13.1 |
| Michael Gallup | DAL | 12.7 | 2.5 | 15.2 |
| Brandin Cooks | DAL | 12.7 | -9 | 3.7 |
| Tee Higgins | CIN | 12.6 | -8.5 | 4.1 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr | CAR | 12.2 | -3.7 | 8.5 |
| Josh Palmer | LAC | 12.1 | 4.5 | 16.6 |
| Calvin Ridley | JAC | 11.6 | -4.6 | 7.0 |
| Rashee Rice | KC | 11.5 | -0.6 | 10.9 |
| Alec Pierce | IND | 11.4 | -4.1 | 7.3 |
| Chris Godwin | TB | 11.2 | -3 | 8.2 |
| Drake London | ATL | 11.2 | -6.1 | 5.1 |
| Puka Nacua | LAR | 11.1 | 1.1 | 12.2 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | TEN | 11.1 | -3.3 | 7.8 |
| Tank Dell | HOU | 10.8 | 14.7 | 25.5 |
| Parris Campbell | NYG | 10.6 | -2.2 | 8.4 |
| DJ Moore | CHI | 10.3 | 2.8 | 13.1 |
Jakobi Meyers (LV, 19.0 Expected Points)
Jakobi Meyers has only played in two of the Raiders’ three games this season. However, in those two games, he’s seen 10 and 12 targets, respectively, and has a strong 16-166-2 line and ranks as the WR5 in fantasy points per game (23.3).
His fantasy production is buoyed by a two-touchdown performance in Week 1, but the volume has been there for the Raiders’ WR2, and the team is throwing at a 58 percent clip in neutral game scripts. They’ve thrown at a 68 percent rate when trailing in the second half.
There’s a real chance the Raiders will again find themselves in a negative game script in Week 4, creating another fantasy-friendly environment for Meyers. The Raiders and their 24th-ranked defense (allowing 25.7 PPG) hit the road for a matchup against the Chargers, and their fifth-ranked offense (scoring 28.7 PPG) and currently sit as 5.5 point underdogs on bet MGM.
What’s more encouraging is that the Chargers’ defense is also getting torched to the tune of 29.0 points per game and allows 55.1 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers — that number is not a typo.
Almost sure to be a favorite for folks stacking games in DFS matchups, Meyers could be in store for yet another big day in a potential AFC West shootout.
Josh Downs (IND, 18.7 Expected Points)
Downs was one of my favorite Day 2 picks of this year’s draft class. A lifetime slot receiver at North Carolina (89 percent slot rate), Downs has played 84.1 percent of his snaps from the slot this season and has caught 15 passes for 124 yards on 21 targets.
Among receivers with 20 or more targets on the season, Downs ranks 17th in YAC/REC (4.5) and has run a route on 97.2 percent of his passing down snaps — only Tyreek Hill and Michael Pittman have a higher route participation rate.
Downs saw a season-high 11 targets in Week 3’s win over the Ravens, which is awesome, but also came in a game with Gardner Minshew as the starter. Anthony Richardson is expected to clear concussion protocol in time for Week 4’s matchup, which could suppress Downs’ target volume a bit, but I still like him as a deep play in leagues with multiple FLEX spots.
In addition to his elite route participation rate, Downs gets a generous matchup against the Rams this weekend. The Rams have allowed the third-most targets in the slot (40) this season and, consequently, are also giving up the third-most receiving yards in the slot (318, 106 yards per game).
Down’s is a wildly athletic receiver who dominated at the combine. His athleticism shows up repeatedly on his college tape and in the advanced metrics. His career 5.8 YAC/REC at UNC ranks right up there with some of the recent receivers drafted in the first and second rounds of the NFL Draft, as does his 2.51 yards per route run.
We haven’t seen enough of Richardson and Downs together to be fully confident in how this duo could perform for the remainder of the season. Still, I’m hopeful Downs’ recent production and the unexpectedly high pass rate we saw in Week 1 will translate to fantasy success sooner rather than later.
Zay Flowers (BAL, 15.3 Expected Points)
Odell Beckham Jr. (ankle) missed the Ravens’ Week 3 matchup against the Colts and has yet to practice ahead of Week 4 against the Browns. Rashod Bateman (hamstring) has also been sidelined for both practices to start the week.
The absence of OBJ and Bateman in Week 4 would spell another high-volume day for Zay Flowers, who has seen 10 targets in two of his first three games and boasts a 30 percent target share — tying with Stefon Diggs.
What Flowers isn’t boasting is a lot of downfield targets. The rookie receiver has a 5.2 aDOT through three games and has seen 10 of his 25 targets come behind the line of scrimmage, as offensive coordinator Todd Monken tasks him with creating yards after the catch.
Flowers hasn’t been put in a position to make many splash plays, but the early volume has still yielded 13.8 fantasy points per game, ranking him WR30 on the season.
When targeted on passes of 10 yards or further downfield, Flowers has hauled in 4-of-5 targets for 101 yards, and he’s yet to drop a pass this season. Even against a stout Browns defense, Flowers is on a short list of WR3s I feel comfortable rolling with, as he seems to be a focal point in an offense that needs to find ways to operate in the short field with so many underwhelming running backs.
Tight Ends
Week 3 Expected Points
| Player | Team | EP | FPOE | PPR |
| TJ Hockenson | MIN | 17.7 | -1.9 | 15.8 |
| Cole Turner | WAS | 16.6 | -9.1 | 7.5 |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | 16.6 | 5.8 | 22.4 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | 14.9 | 5 | 19.9 |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL | 14.1 | -5.4 | 8.7 |
| George Kittle | SF | 13.8 | 2.2 | 16.0 |
| Jonnu Smith | ATL | 12.1 | -3.4 | 8.7 |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | 11.7 | -1.9 | 9.8 |
| Luke Musgrave | GB | 11.7 | -0.8 | 10.9 |
| Evan Engram | JAC | 11.6 | 2.1 | 13.7 |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | 10.9 | -1.8 | 9.1 |
| Gerald Everett | LAC | 10.8 | -1.8 | 9.0 |
Kyle Pitts (ATL, 14.1 Expected Points)
We will never be happy with a Kyle Pitts fantasy performance. I’ve accepted this. But I won’t stop complaining about his coaches and teammates failing him.
The hyper-athletic tight end was funneled a season-high nine targets in Week 3’s loss to the Lions but turned in a scoreless 41 yards on five receptions. Of course, his 107 air yards led all tight ends, but that doesn’t matter when his catchable target rate was 56 percent on the week — the worst of any tight end in the league.
Pitts and uncatchable targets have been synonymous with one another over the last two seasons. Below average, XFL-level quarterback accuracy has led fantasy managers scouting from the box scores into believing Pitts is an under-targeted, forgotten player on the Falcons.
He should be targeted more, but the third-year tight end was on pace to finish with 100 targets last season before his injury. And, just like this season, he struggled to see catchable targets from his quarterback. Among 29 tight ends with 50-plus targets last season, Pitts ranked dead last in catchable target rate (57 percent) and is ranked 31st among 32 tight ends in catchable target rate this season (65 percent, min. 10 targets).
The Falcons travel to Jacksonville to take on a 1-2 Jaguars team that has allowed 9.3 targets per game and an average of 13.8 fantasy points per game to tight ends through three weeks.
It looks like a great matchup on paper for Pitts, who will inevitably finish with 6.9 fantasy points on 15 targets.
Gerald Everett (LAC, 10.8 Expected Points)
For full disclosure, Gerald Everett has missed each of the Chargers’ first two practices with an illness, making his game day status one to watch heading into the weekend. However, the veteran tight end is fresh off a day in which he caught all six of his targets for 30 yards and now faces a Raiders defense that’s allowed 15 fantasy points per game and 7.7 targets per game to opposing tight ends.
As previously mentioned, the matchup between the Raiders and Chargers could be ripe for fantasy points. Everett could also see a slightly increased role with Mike Williams (knee) now done for the season with a torn ACL.
Everett’s six targets against the Vikings was a season-high for the veteran tight end, but he saw six or more targets in nine games last season. The Chargers also pass at a 61 percent rate in neutral game scripts and are among the top in the league in PROE at six percent.
Fantasy managers needing a reliable streaming option could look to Everett as a reliable option in a plus matchup.