The dynamic game of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) requires much more than simply knowing the sport for which we’re entering contests to be successful. We must be adaptable, precise, and open to learning from previous endeavors, the latter of which will be the primary focus of this weekly written piece. Game Theoretic methodologies will allow us to analyze and dissect the previous week’s winner of the largest and most prestigious Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournament on DraftKings – the Millionaire Maker. These same tenets of Game Theory, which can most simply be explained as the development of decision-making processes given our own skill and knowledge, assumptions of the field based on the cumulative skill and knowledge of others playing the same game, and the rules and structure of the game itself, will allow us to further train our minds to see beyond the antiquated techniques of roster building being employed by a large portion of the field. Approaching improvement through these methods will give us insight into the anatomy of successful rosters and will help us develop repeatably profitable habit patterns for the coming weeks. We’ll start by looking at the previous week’s winning roster, extract any pertinent lessons for future utilization, and finish with a look ahead towards the coming main slate.
Winning Roster
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Lessons Learned
Tight End in Primary Stack
Over the previous three seasons, including a team’s tight end in a primary stack has an almost 25% hit rate in winning rosters. And yet, the field does not utilize this simple roster construction tool at a 25% frequency. One of the simplest ways to generate leverage in DFS is to utilize practices that have a higher hit rate than the field’s utilization, which DraftKings user Fatebender displayed brilliantly on this roster.
As for the particularly correlative function between tight end scoring and their quarterback, we must look at the state of the tight end position in the league in 2024. There are fewer tight ends that see bankable weekly volume in the league today, meaning more often than not, volume is induced through game environment rather than game plan. Furthermore, the decrease in volume at the position increases the position’s reliance on touchdowns to return GPP-viable fantasy production, increasing the correlation between the tight end and the quarterback. So, if a game environment benefits the tight end through volume, and his quarterback is responsible for that volume, and you double-dip on any touchdowns thrown to the tight end, we’re left with a highly correlated outcome as far as GPP ceiling is concerned.
Chalk and You
DraftKings user Fatebender rostered three players that were on 20% or more of rosters in play in Week 4, with all of Nico Collins, Diontae Johnson, and Brian Robinson amongst the chalkiest plays on the slate. Even so, the inclusion of a low-owned three-man primary stack and a differentiator defense at sub-5% ownership made it so they could play chalk in a way the field was overlooking. Chalk isn’t always something to avoid. Rather, it is much more profitable to work through how to play chalk in ways the field is not on. All three chalk pieces in this roster were in incredible spots in Week 4 and brought some of the highest point-per-dollar projections on the slate. Remember this moving forward – it is often more profitable to work through how to play chalk as opposed to avoiding it altogether!
Correlation Station
This roster made two primary game environment bets: the Vikings would control the game environment against the Packers, in turn forcing Green Bay to the air and increasing the volume expectation for Aaron Jones, and the Bengals would control the game environment against the Panthers, in turn forcing Carolina to the air and increasing the volume expectation for Zack Moss. DraftKings user Fatebender was not making nine individual bets and trying to string together a nine-way parlay. They simply made two distinct bets and built in high-upside players around those bets. This is the power of correlation. We correlate to reduce variance, capture bulk scoring, and reduce the number of things that must go right in order to win.
Looking Ahead
Joe Flacco (or Anthony Richardson) + Michael Pittman + Josh Downs + Brian Thomas Jr.
The Colts are likely to be without star running back Jonathan Taylor in Week 5 after he suffered a high ankle sprain in the team’s Week 4 win over the Steelers, and their opponent in the Jaguars are a legitimate pass-funnel matchup. This stack, primarily the pass-catchers, gains an immense boost should Joe Flacco start for the injured Anthony Richardson, particularly considering the expected absence of Taylor. The three-man stack of Flacco, Michael Pittman, and Josh Downs carries a salary of $16,600 on DraftKings, meaning the trio must average 22.13 fantasy points per player to return a 4x salary multiplier and keep you on pace for a 200-point score. Brian Thomas Jr. makes a natural bring-back correlation in a nod to the game environment against the static, Cover-3-heavy defense from Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley.
Joe Burrow + Ja’Marr Chase + Eric All Jr. + Derrick Henry
The Ravens and Bengals opened with the highest game total on the Week 5 slate at a robust 50.5. The Bengals lead the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE), a measure of a team’s pass rates while removing game environment from the equation, while the Ravens are the most pass-funnel team in the league, ceding just 57.8 yards of rushing per game (first) but allowing 257.5 pass yards per game (29th). On the other side, the Bengals are allowing 4.4 yards per carry, 145.5 rush yards per game, and the 12th most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Finally, rookie tight end Eric All Jr. out-snapped teammate Mike Gesicki in Week 4 for the first time this season while the Ravens have allowed the second most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. This stack combines “tight end in primary stack” and “correlation station” from above.
Kyren Williams + Jayden Reed
The Rams rank fifth in the league in zone coverage utilization rate at 77.7% and are allowing the most fantasy points per dropback from zone this season at 0.54. Jayden Reed averages 0.77 fantasy points per route run against zone coverages in 2024 (second, behind only Rashee Rice) after ranking 14th in the league in 2023 at 0.50. Kyren Williams leads the league in red zone opportunities through four weeks of the season and should continue to be the primary focus of the Rams’ offense with both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua out. Finally, the Packers have allowed 20.1 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields and currently present the seventh-best matchup on paper to running backs. This is a tidy mini-correlation that gets you access to a top expected game environment in Week 5.