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The dynamic game of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) requires much more than simply knowing the sport for which we’re entering contests to be successful. We must be adaptable, precise, and open to learning from previous endeavors, the latter of which will be the primary focus of this weekly written piece. Game Theoretic methodologies will allow us to analyze and dissect the previous week’s winner of the largest and most prestigious Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournament on DraftKings – the Millionaire Maker. These same tenets of Game Theory, which can most simply be explained as the development of decision-making processes given our own skill and knowledge, assumptions of the field based on the cumulative skill and knowledge of others playing the same game, and the rules and structure of the game itself, will allow us to further train our minds to see beyond the antiquated techniques of roster building being employed by a large portion of the field. Approaching improvement through these methods will give us insight into the anatomy of successful rosters and will help us develop repeatably profitable habit patterns for the coming weeks. We’ll start by looking at the previous week’s winning roster, extract any pertinent lessons for future utilization, and finish with a look ahead towards the coming main slate.
Winning Roster
Lessons Learned
No Bring-Backs?
The standard DFS correlation of a quarterback, a pass-catcher attached to that quarterback, and a correlated bring-back is the most common roster construction shell in DFS play. And yet, if we examine the previous three years of data, we find that this roster construction shell was present on under 20 percent of the winning rosters in the Milly Maker in addition to being on under 20 percent of the optimal rosters in each week. So then, why are we so attached to this common roster construction as the starting point to our rosters in DFS? And there’s your “Aha!” moment – we shouldn’t be!
There are many other roster construction shells that have a higher hit rate than their individual utilization rates by the field, and the simple quarterback paired with his tight end is one of them (which is the roster construction shell present on DraftKings user ctoujague’s winning roster). Other examples of leveraged roster construction shells include QB-WR-TE, QB-RB-TE, QB-WR, and RB-(opposing) RB.
Ownership, Schmownership
Just two players with under 10 percent ownership were present on the winning Milly Maker roster in Week 3, and they just happened to be the primary stack of Jared Goff and Sam LaPorta. While Goff was nowhere near optimal on this slate, no quarterback put the slate out of reach, and he gave ctoujague access to the top tight end score of the week. The big lesson here is that the field is generally starting their roster construction process by attacking game environments, and they are attacking game environments primarily through their primary stacks. If we look at game environments as a means to an end as opposed to the end all, be all when constructing rosters, we can begin to introduce practices that the field is largely overlooking. This practice generates leverage on the field without introducing suboptimal play. It is much easier to do in theory than in practice but try zooming out from individual players and consider the various avenues that a game could take when it plays out, and how those differing routes can benefit different players.
Far too often we become victims of ownership expectations when constructing a roster. Instead, ownership projections should be considered in conjunction with a player’s range of outcomes to determine how solid or fragile that play is when compared to the other options available on a slate.
The Power of Concentration
The Miami offense was set to be without wide receiver Jaylen Waddle in Week 3. If we take previous coaching tendencies into account, we find that Mike McDaniel runs an extremely concentrated offense, one that becomes even more concentrated should one of his primary skill position players miss a contest. With Waddle out, that left Tyreek Hill, Raheem Mostert, and De’Von Achane as the primary contributors against a defense that has not looked good to this point in the season. As we saw, the team scored 10 offensive touchdowns, nine of which came via those three players.
Looking Ahead
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers operated with the league’s third highest pass rate over expectation in Week 3 against the Seahawks. The reasons for their pass-leaning ways were likely threefold – quarterback Bryce Young was out and veteran Andy Dalton drew the start, the continued emphasis on the pass required to develop Young likely carried forward to Week 3, and the continued requirement to play catchup through negative game scripts.
Those are important because Young is expected to miss his second consecutive contest in Week 4, the Panthers play a Vikings team that can put up points in a hurry but can also give up chunk plays on defense, and rookie wide receiver Jonathan Mingo departed the team’s Week 3 game with a concussion. No player has played the week following a concussion diagnosis this season.
Against the Seahawks, Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, and running back Miles Sanders combined to account for 34 targets on 58 Andy Dalton pass attempts, bringing in the power of concentration as was discussed above.
Keenan Allen + Joshua Palmer
Neither of these two players are going to go overlooked by the field, but both are set up to see immense volume considering the current state of the Chargers. Austin Ekeler should be considered highly unlikely to play this week considering the team is on their bye week in Week 5 and he is likely dealing with a high ankle sprain. Mike Williams was lost for the season in Week 4 with a torn ACL, Joshua Kelley is not comparable to Ekeler through the air, and rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnston has not yet been trusted with a full snap rate. That leaves just Keenan Allen and Joshua Palmer as the primary pass-catchers for a game against the reeling Raiders that are likely to be without their starting quarterback after Jimmy Garoppolo sustained a concussion last week. Now consider the relative must-win nature of this game for the Chargers, who currently sit at a 1-2 record and are just one game behind the Chiefs for the division lead, and we should expect offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to lean on the guys he has to what could be extreme levels. Ownership schmownership, these two are great plays in Week 4.
Sam Howell + Logan Thomas
Commanders’ offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy is likely auditioning for a potential head coaching job in the near future, with the final piece of the puzzle his ability to maintain offensive success when detached from Andy Reid in Kansas City. The Commanders are coming off an embarrassing 37-3 loss to the Bills in Week 3 but have no time to rest with a matchup with the Eagles on deck in Week 4. The Eagles, while they still have a ton of talent on the defensive side of the ball, have been susceptible to opposing tight ends due to a linebacking corps better at pressuring the quarterback than dropping in coverage. Finally, Sam Howell has fed a massive 26 percent target rate to his tight ends this season, with Logan Thomas accounting for 11 targets in just under six quarters of play (he left Week 2 with a concussion and missed Week 3). Everything aligns for this pairing to provide some interesting upside at their basement-level combined salary – the only question is whether they can keep up with some of the other elite options on the slate at the quarterback position.
