Jayden de Laura, Arizona vs. UTEP - Over 262.5 Pass Yards
One of the most pass-happy teams in the nation, Arizona ranked 116th last year in standard downs run rate as QB Jayden de Laura carved up the Pac-12 for the resurgent Wildcats. In his last 12 games, de Laura has eclipsed the 263 yard plateau 9 times and this week has the benefit of facing a UTEP defense that gave up 38 points to a woeful Northwestern team last week. With Arizona looking to avenge a loss to Mississippi State and Arizona averaging 314 passing yards per game dating back to the beginning of last season, i’m riding the Over 262.5 Pass Yards for de Laura.
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Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado vs Colorado St. - Over 336.5 Pass Yards
Shedeur opened at 323.5 Tuesday night, and by Wednesday morning it was already 336.5. It will probably spike again considering Shedeur threw for 510 yards against TCU and 393 vs. Nebraska. Now they face a reeling Colorado State who just lost their starting QB and were down 36-3 to Wazzu before some garbage time magic closed the gap to 50-24. With Cam Ward having ripped the Rams for 451 yards, I see no reason why Shedeur shouldn’t be priced in the same area. As it stands, the Over 336.5 is my 3rd consecutive Shedeur Over recommendation.
Xavier Weaver, WR, Colorado vs. Colorado St. - Over 80.5 Receiving Yards
Travis Hunter, WR, Colorado vs. CSU - Over 72.5 Receiving Yards
With Colorado airing it out so much and playing the 3 starting wideouts so consistently, Shedeur is taking these wideouts with him on the road to Overtown. Jimmy Horn Jr. is the highest priced at 84.5, which takes the value out of the shifty slot receiver. Weaver should be the highest lined, and has vaulted the 80.5 receiving yardage mark in each game this season. Hunter is a Heisman contender who ran 99 receiving routes in the first 2 games and is a full 12 yards lower than Horn. Colorado’s WR corps is approaching rarified “Spray the Board with Overs” territory. Take these three Overs to the pay window.
Roman Hemby, RB, Maryland vs. UVA - Over 17.5 Receiving Yards
I had some reservations about Hemby coming into this season after he emerged last year out of obscurity to wrestle the starting job from four-star RB Ramon Brown and bruiser Antwain Littletown. Can this unheralded recruit maintain a dominant backfield market share this season, or will his receiving prowess allow Littleton to vulture short yardage/goal line work? After Week 1 those doubts lingered, as Hemby rushed for just 58 yards on 12 carries in a 38-6 destruction of Towson. CFF managers rushed to the waiver wire to acquire Littleton, but last week against Charlotte, new OC Josh Gattis showed his true intentions, giving Hemby 19 carries for 162 yards to go with four receptions for 55 yards in a 38-20 win.
In Week 2 Virginia allowed 395 yards and 36 points to a James Madison program that just joined FBS last year. Their 53% success rate on D ranks 132nd out of 133 FBS teams, while UVA’s run defense is considered the 122nd unit nationally. Hemby ranked second in 2022 receiving yardage among all Power Five returning RBs (Ott #1) and had four receptions for 55 yards last week. I think Hemby will do damage through the air to this porous UVA defensive unit in both phases of the game, which means he covers the Over 17.5 receiving yardage prop.
Perris Jones, RB, UVA @ Maryland - Under 34.5 Rushing Yards
In Week 1, 5 Virginia running backs split 28 carries, with Jones taking seven of them for 39 yards against Tennessee. Last week against James Madison, Jones (10/11), Mack Hollins (12/28) and Kobe Pace (6/9) divided the same 28 carries with none of them cracking the 35 yard threshold. On top of that, Jones fumbled in a crucial spot and now UVA plays a pretty strong Maryland D that finished with a solid 40% rushing success rate last season (31st in FBS) on the road. If Maryland gets up and UVA has to abandon the run, we could see a situation where all three RBs miss the cut again. Regardless, we have a very unsettled backfield that cannot be relied upon. In such situations, fade the RB who is listed and take Jones Under 34.5 rushing yards.
Seth Henigan, QB, Memphis vs. Navy - Over 253.5 Passing Yards
Henigan failed to clear this number last week against a hapless Arkansas State team that got destroyed 37-2 by the Tigers. However, that’s been the exception to the rule, as Henigan has thrown for at least 260 yards in 7 of his last 9 games, with the only other Under coming in a 59-0 blowout of North Alabama where he only threw 24 passes before departing in the third quarter.
Last year against Navy, Henigan threw for 415 yards in a lopsided 37-13 victory. With the Midshipmen undergoing a coaching staff turnover, Memphis is going to score at will. I’m taking the Over 253.5 passing yards for Henigan.