The dynamic game of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) requires much more than simply knowing the sport for which we’re entering contests to be successful. We must be adaptable, precise, and open to learning from previous endeavors, the latter of which will be the primary focus of this weekly written piece. Game Theoretic methodologies will allow us to analyze and dissect the previous week’s winner of the largest and most prestigious Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournament on DraftKings – the Millionaire Maker. These same tenets of Game Theory, which can most simply be explained as the development of decision-making processes given our own skill and knowledge, assumptions of the field based on the cumulative skill and knowledge of others playing the same game, and the rules and structure of the game itself, will allow us to further train our minds to see beyond the antiquated techniques of roster building being employed by a large portion of the field. Approaching improvement through these methods will give us insight into the anatomy of successful rosters and will help us develop repeatably profitable habit patterns for the coming weeks. We’ll start by looking at the previous week’s winning roster, extract any pertinent lessons for future utilization, and finish with a look ahead towards the coming main slate.
Winning Roster
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Lessons Learned
The Return of Running Back FLEX
Passing touchdowns are down to 10-year lows while offenses are struggling to find paint in the red zone. When you then consider the increased rates of two-high alignments and zone coverages, teams are simply electing to run the football at increased rates this season. We know we are no longer in the age of the workhorse running back, with only three or four true workhorse situations remaining in the league. But that doesn’t mean that running back volume can’t be attacked in DFS, particularly as it pertains to running back utilization in the FLEX. 16 running backs saw 18 or more opportunities in Week 1, with 1 ridiculous 19 hitting that mark in Week 2. Nine running backs saw 22 or more opportunities in both weeks, while four running backs saw a hefty 25 or more opportunities in both weeks. Rushing volume and production is up this season, making it likely we see numerous backs hit these thresholds on a weekly basis and increasing the fantasy feasibility of multiple backs in the process. It might be time to deviate from the learned tendencies that have built up over the previous five seasons to not allow running backs in the FLEX. The league is changing, and we ought to change with it in DFS.
Are the Panthers for Real?
We highlighted Diontae Johnson in this space last week as a player that could see massive volume for a hopefully functioning offense. That is exactly what played out in Week 3, and the Panthers are now left without Adam Thielen moving forward after the veteran wide receiver was reportedly headed to injured reserve. Now we get a competent offense under Dave Canales that is expected to by hyper-concentrated after Chuba Hubbard and Johnson combined to see a robust 40 opportunities against the Raiders.
Eagles Are Hurting
A.J. Brown enters week three of a hamstring injury, which typically brings a two-to-six-week recovery window. Except wide receivers typically find themselves towards the tail end of that recovery timeframe considering they go from stationary to full-out sprinting 30-40 times per game, placing significant stress on lower extremity soft tissue. In other words, I don’t think it is unreasonable to expect Brown to miss another game here. And then DeVonta Smith’s injury happened, which was a pitiful combination of poor officiating and unabated aggression on a defenseless receiver. Smith entered the concussion protocol after being knocked out on the field, placing his Week 4 status in doubt. What we’ve typically seen from the Eagles under Sirianni is that when pieces of their primary skill position core are out, the volume typically gets even more concentrated amongst the remaining primary players. That leaves just Saquon Barkley and Dallas Goedert, in a matchup against a Buccaneers defense currently missing three primary pieces in Vita Vea, Calijah Kancey, and Antoine Winfield Jr.
Looking Ahead
Andy Dalton + Chuba Hubbard + Diontae Johnson
In keeping with the second point from the above section, this offense suddenly looks good with a competent quarterback under center. And we thought this to be the case after Bryce Young played so poorly to open the season. What’s more, head coach Dave Canales made good on his preseason promise that the offense would run through Diontae Johnson, with the veteran putting up a career-best performance in Week 3 on 14 targets. Furthermore, Canales has shown extreme tendencies to tailor his offense to getting his primary skill position players the ball in space, which now consists of just the backfield and Johnson with Adam Thielen hitting injured reserve. The Panthers now get the banged-up Bengals who just played without their top two defensive linemen in B.J. Hill and Sheldon Rankins. Everything lines up for this three-man stack to see significant point-per-dollar upside considering their modest combined salary.
Saquon Barkley + Dallas Goedert
As covered above, the Eagles under Sirianni typically focus offensive volume even heavier when a primary piece is missing, and they currently appear to be setting up to be without both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith in Week 4. This pairing is not cheap, but we can expect a massive portion of the offense to flow through Barkley and Goedert, meaning the two offer immense upside if we expect the Eagles’ offense to continue to succeed against the Buccaneers.
Nico Collins
Nico Collins put the league on notice in his breakout 2023 campaign, ranking third in the league in fantasy points per route run again man coverage (behind only Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb). After struggling against the two-high shell of Brian Flores’ Minnesota defense, Collins is likely to see his ownership relatively suppressed. But in Week 4, Collins and the Texans get a matchup with a Jaguars defense that leads the league in man coverage rate at a robust 61.4%, including 64.0% single-high alignments. Collins is set up to absolutely eat in this spot.
Najee Harris
Head coach Mike Tomlin removed Jaylen Warren from the team’s Week 3 game after noticing that he was favoring one leg while running, with the team revealing he came down with a knee injury during the game. Najee Harris was then forced into a robust workload, handling 23 running back opportunities. With Warren coming back from a soft tissue injury the first two games, Harris handled 22 and 19 running back opportunities, which feels like his floor against the outside-in, run-funnel Indianapolis defense. Better yet, his price is only $5,600 on DraftKings in Week 4.