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The dynamic game of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) requires much more than simply knowing the sport for which we’re entering contests to be successful. We must be adaptable, precise, and open to learning from previous endeavors, the latter of which will be the primary focus of this weekly written piece. Game Theoretic methodologies will allow us to analyze and dissect the previous week’s winner of the largest and most prestigious Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournament on DraftKings – the Millionaire Maker. These same tenets of Game Theory, which can most simply be explained as the development of decision-making processes given our own skill and knowledge, assumptions of the field based on the cumulative skill and knowledge of others playing the same game, and the rules and structure of the game itself, will allow us to further train our minds to see beyond the antiquated techniques of roster building being employed by a large portion of the field. Approaching improvement through these methods will give us insight into the anatomy of successful rosters and will help us develop repeatably profitable habit patterns for the coming weeks. We’ll start by looking at the previous week’s winning roster, extract any pertinent lessons for future utilization, and finish with a look ahead towards the coming main slate.
Winning Roster
Lessons Learned
Late Swap
Incumbent lead back Cam Akers was reported to be a healthy inactive just seven minutes prior to the early games kicking off, which meant Kyren William had underwhelming expected ownership in a role that far exceeded his salary for the week. DraftKings user russell_miller took full advantage of the ability to grab an underpriced back in a growing role at miniscule ownership, a move that vaulted him to the top of the leaderboards on the backs of the second highest raw point total at the running back position in Week 2. Being open to the changing dynamics in the DFS landscape can create these lopsided risk-to-reward profiles at minimal field exposure levels and can do wonders to the expected value of a portfolio in play!
Embracing Uncertainty
There were multiple examples of embracing uncertainty present in this roster. Keenan Allen plays on a team that exhibited extreme run-leaning tendencies in Week 1 in a spot where the matchup clearly tilted opponents towards the ground. The expectation out of Los Angeles heading into the season was for new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to bring a more downfield-oriented offense to the scene, which took a level of faith considering their heavy emphasis on the ground game in Week 1.
Puka Nacua turned heads in Week 1 after he amassed 10 receptions for 119 yards, but we weren’t positive that his level of involvement in the Rams’ offense would carry forward to Week 2. Nacua proceeded to break multiple rookie receiving records on his way to 15 receptions for 147 yards and was an integral piece to this lineup.
Finally, Zack Moss was active for the first time this season in Week 2 after rehabbing a broken arm. His workload coming into the week was uncertain considering the presence of Deon Jackson, but he bucked those concerns with a 98 percent snap rate, 88 yards and a touchdown on the ground, and four receptions through the air. Moss finished the week as the RB10 in PPR formats.
All three of these instances carried significant levels of uncertainty in Week 2 but rewarded those who were bold enough to insert them into lineups, none benefiting more than russell_miller.
Game Over-Stack
Fading the chalky early slate games paid off in spades for russell_miller, who’s late game over-stack of the 49ers and Rams provided a solid core for the millionaire-winning roster. We’ve theorized early this season that attacking game environments relentlessly is likely one of the biggest boosts to expected value that we can gain this season due to the lower scoring present in the league. Since 2020, average touchdowns scored per team per game has dropped from 2.88 to 2.43 over a three-year span, with early output from the 2023 season following suit. Getting multiple players right through a single game environment that overperforms expectations reduces the variable at play in our path to the top of the leaderboard.
Looking Ahead
Joshua Kelley
Lead back Austin Ekeler reportedly has “no timeline” for his return to the active roster as he deals with an ankle injury. Joshua Kelley disappointed in Week 2 with the lead role in this backfield, but we have to remember that he was playing a Tennessee Titans team that finished 2022 ranked first overall in yards allowed per rush attempt and had been exposed in the secondary. The Chargers’ opponent in Week 3, the Minnesota Vikings, present a much more palatable matchup on the ground. We have to remember that Kellen Moore is a forward-thinking offensive coordinator, one that is capable of game planning and executing to exploit what his opponent gives him. In Week 1, that was on the ground. In Week 2, that was through the air. In Week 3, that is likely to be a balanced approach in the game with the highest game total of the 2023 season. Kelley returns to smash value at a salary of only $5,400. Don’t be afraid to embrace some that uncertainty!
Late Swap Potential
There are only three games on the late slate for Week 3, and two of them carry moderate game totals with massive spread – Bears and Chiefs and Cowboys at Cardinals. The Vegas implied team totals for the Chiefs and Cowboys provide paths to upside for skill position players from each team, so leaving the ability to late swap around those two teams could return solid value in Week 3.
Game Over-Stack
The game that carries a high game total that is most likely to go overlooked on this slate is the Broncos at Dolphins. We typically have to keep a watchful eye on the weather in Miami early in the season because heat and humidity can be unfavorable to fantasy production, but temperatures are currently expected to be in the 80s and weather looks conducive to fantasy production. This game carries all the pieces we look for when targeting a game environment – both offenses are concentrated, both offenses can put up points in a hurry (welcome to the league, Marvin Mims!), and both defenses can be exploited in a hurry. Combine those factors with the fact that this game environment is likely to go largely overlooked outside of Tyreek Hill and we’re left with a high upside scenario for Week 3.
