Earlier this week, I published my Week 17 Snap Report, highlighting some running backs who saw encouraging snap shares in their season-openers. This expected points column will work somewhat in conjunction with my weekly snap reports.
For those unfamiliar, expected points apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where they were on the field when they received said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected points based on what they do with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected.
In hopes of pinpointing some deeper plays to make on a week-to-week basis, I’ll utilize what we’ve seen in expected points to highlight some players who could be slept on heading into upcoming weeks.
Under each position, I will also provide tables of expected fantasy points from the previous week, sorted by the most to the fewest expected fantasy points.
NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.
Running Backs
Week 17 Expected Points
| Player | Team | EP | FPOE | PPR |
| Isiah Pacheco | KC | 24.5 | 5 | 29.5 |
| Joe Mixon | CIN | 22.7 | -4 | 18.7 |
| Zamir White | LV | 22.6 | -7 | 15.6 |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | 21.9 | -8.8 | 13.1 |
| Breece Hall | NYJ | 20.2 | 7.4 | 27.6 |
| James Conner | ARI | 18.6 | 7.7 | 26.3 |
| Khalil Herbert | CHI | 17.6 | 3.3 | 20.9 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 16.5 | -11.2 | 5.3 |
| Elijah Mitchell | SF | 16.2 | -2.2 | 14.0 |
| Najee Harris | PIT | 16.2 | 8 | 24.2 |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | 15.9 | 14.2 | 30.1 |
| De’Von Achane | MIA | 15.6 | 8.1 | 23.7 |
| James Cook | BUF | 14.5 | -9.1 | 5.4 |
| Jamaal Williams | NO | 14.4 | -3.3 | 11.1 |
| Javonte Williams | DEN | 14.2 | -5.4 | 8.8 |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | 14.2 | 5.6 | 19.8 |
| Tyjae Spears | TEN | 14.1 | -7.2 | 6.9 |
| Saquon Barkley | NYG | 13.5 | -2.7 | 10.8 |
| Travis Etienne | JAC | 13.3 | 12.5 | 25.8 |
| Gus Edwards | BAL | 13 | -0.2 | 12.8 |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | 12.8 | -1.2 | 11.6 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | 12.2 | 5.2 | 17.4 |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | 12.1 | -1 | 11.1 |
| Roschon Johnson | CHI | 11.8 | 3.1 | 14.9 |
| Tony Pollard | DAL | 11.8 | -5.9 | 5.9 |
| Aaron Jones | GB | 11.6 | 2.4 | 14.0 |
| Devin Singletary | HOU | 11.4 | 0.2 | 11.6 |
| Israel Abanikanda | NYJ | 11.2 | -4.2 | 7.0 |
| Jerome Ford | CLE | 11.2 | 14.9 | 26.1 |
| Rachaad White | TB | 10.7 | -0.1 | 10.6 |
| Ty Chandler | MIN | 10.5 | -1.1 | 9.4 |
| Chase Edmonds | TB | 10.4 | 0.2 | 10.6 |
| David Montgomery | DET | 10.4 | 2.1 | 12.5 |
| Brian Robinson Jr | WAS | 9.9 | 1.7 | 11.6 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | NE | 9.7 | 1.8 | 11.5 |
| Kenneth Walker III | SEA | 9.5 | 7 | 16.5 |
Zamir White (LV, 22.6 Expected Points)
Josh Jacobs hasn’t played since Week 14 and has yet to practice heading into Friday. The veteran running back’s season appears all but over, so we’ll have another week of Zamir White leading the charge.
In three starts as the Raiders’ RB1, here is where White has ranked amongst other running backs:
- 59 rush attempts (3rd)
- 285 rush yards (4th)
- 4.8 YPC (12th)
- 3.69 YCO/ATT (7th)
White has been a top-24 back in each of those three games and is averaging 15.9 fantasy points per game over that span. Our rankings king, RotoPat, has White ranked as his PPR RB4 this weekend against a Broncos defense that has been gouged on multiple occasions throughout the season.
Volume alone should lead White to a productive weekend. His 39 percent opportunity share since Week 15 is second only to Kyren Williams’ 41 percent opportunity share. He’s a must-start for those rostering him in Week 18.
Najee Harris (PIT, 16.2 Expected Points)
The Steelers are fighting for their playoff lives on Saturday when they take on the Ravens, who have already secured the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoff race. As a result, the Ravens are expected to sit several starters, which could make for some easy sledding for Najee Harris and the Steelers offense.
Fantasy managers who were in a position to start Harris in last week’s fantasy championships likely found themselves in a good position for a title. In last week’s win over the Seahawks, Harris ripped off 27 carries for 122 yards and turned a valuable goal-line role into two touchdowns.
While Jaylen Warren continues to take all the receiving work from Harris — who hasn’t caught a pass since Week 14, Harris has seen 12 or more touches in his last nine games. In his previous two outings, Harris has totaled 200 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 46 carries while averaging 3.80 YCO/ATT.
Warren is also in play as a low-end RB2 in PPR leagues, but those with Harris should strongly consider playing him in a must-win game against the Ravens’ backup defense.
Pierre Strong (CLE, 2.0 Expected Points)
If I were a die-hard DFS grinder, I would absolutely be eying Pierre Strong in my Week 18 lineups. I touched on this a bit in my Week 17 Snap Report, so I won’t go too deep on Strong here, but the second-year back could find himself in a smash spot against a struggling Bengals defense.
Over the last three weeks, the Bengals have allowed 129.3 rushing yards per game and three rushing touchdowns while allowing the 17th-most fantasy points per game (22.0) to opposing running backs.
The Browns will bench several starters, including Joe Flacco, Amari Cooper, and possibly David Njoku, in Week 18. Jerome Ford or Kareem Hunt could see a light workload, but Strong is expected to step into a lead role for the Browns’ season finale.
An explosive back who can create after contact and catch passes out of the backfield, any three-down role for Strong could make him a potential smash this weekend.
Wide Receivers
Week 17 Expected Points
| Player | Team | EP | FPOE | PPR |
| Davante Adams | LV | 38.5 | -0.9 | 37.6 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | 29.1 | 13.1 | 42.2 |
| DJ Moore | CHI | 23.6 | 7.3 | 30.9 |
| Tyreek Hill | MIA | 21.9 | -8.3 | 13.6 |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | 18.1 | -7.2 | 10.9 |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | 17.9 | -8 | 9.9 |
| Demarcus Robinson | LAR | 17 | -1.8 | 15.2 |
| Jakobi Meyers | LV | 16.2 | -4.6 | 11.6 |
| Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG | 16.2 | 3.7 | 19.9 |
| Drake London | ATL | 16.1 | -6.5 | 9.6 |
| DK Metcalf | SEA | 15.7 | -0.1 | 15.6 |
| Nico Collins | HOU | 15.6 | 0.1 | 15.7 |
| Puka Nacua | LAR | 15.2 | 3.5 | 18.7 |
| Deebo Samuel | SF | 15.1 | 3.1 | 18.2 |
| Brandin Cooks | DAL | 14.7 | 2.3 | 17.0 |
| George Pickens | PIT | 14.3 | 5.8 | 20.1 |
| Amon-Ra St Brown | DET | 14.2 | 9.9 | 24.1 |
| Alex Erickson | LAC | 13.7 | 3.1 | 16.8 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | SF | 13.7 | 10.7 | 24.4 |
| Bo Melton | GB | 13.1 | 9.4 | 22.5 |
| Jayden Reed | GB | 13.1 | 13.8 | 26.9 |
| Xavier Gipson | NYJ | 12.8 | -4.7 | 8.1 |
| Keelan Doss | LAC | 12.4 | -4.9 | 7.5 |
| Michael Wilson | ARI | 12.4 | 3.1 | 15.5 |
| Greg Dortch | ARI | 12.2 | 3 | 15.2 |
| Elijah Moore | CLE | 11.6 | 5.5 | 17.1 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | 11.5 | -4.4 | 7.1 |
| Calvin Ridley | JAC | 11.4 | -3.5 | 7.9 |
| Michael Pittman Jr | IND | 11.1 | -1.5 | 9.6 |
| Brandon Johnson | DEN | 11 | -4.3 | 6.7 |
| Tyler Scott | CHI | 10.9 | -7.4 | 3.5 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | TEN | 10.7 | 3.5 | 14.2 |
| Terry McLaurin | WAS | 10.7 | 5.4 | 16.1 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | CIN | 10.4 | -3.3 | 7.1 |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | 9.9 | 2.8 | 12.7 |
| Rashee Rice | KC | 9.8 | 7.9 | 17.7 |
Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG, 16.2 Expected Points)
Our own Denny Carter highlights Week 18’s Eagles vs. Giants matchup in his Week 18 Funnel Defense Report. As Mr. Carter notes, the Giants have been “analytics kings” over the last three weeks, throwing at a 70 percent clip in neutral game scripts.
Over those last three weeks, Wan’Dale Robinson has caught 13-of-20 targets for 96 yards and has rushed once for a 24-yard score.
His 34.0 expected points over the last three weeks rank 22nd among all receivers, while his 5.8 YAC/REC over that span is tied for 22nd.
The Eagles’ pass defense has been a problem all season — especially against players lined up in the slot. Per the Fantasy Points Data Suite, no team has allowed more targets (214) or receiving yards (1,740) to the slot than the Eagles, while the 141 receptions they’ve allowed are good for second-most in the league.
Robinson has seen the third-most snaps from the slot of any receiver since Week 15 and has a 78.1 percent slot rate on the season. With a handful of star receivers expected to miss this weekend, Robinson makes for a potentially sneaky WR3 against an Eagles defense that could sit several starters.
Brandin Cooks (DAL, 14.7 Expected Points)
The Cowboys will fight for the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs when they take on the Commanders in Week 18. Conversely, the Commanders will likely sit several of their starters and currently have three cornerbacks who have yet to practice this week listed on their injury report.
Even with their starters healthy, the Commanders have been arguably the worst pass defense in the league, allowing the second-most passing yards per game (259.3) and the most passing touchdowns (35) while also allowing the 14th-highest pass rate over expected.
In the Cowboys’ Thanksgiving Day matchup against the Commanders, Cooks turned five targets into four receptions for 72 yards and a touchdown. Since that Week 12 performance, Cooks has posted a line of 19-238-4 on 30 targets and has seen five or more targets in four of those six games.
Cooks brings plenty of touchdown-scoring upside into this weekend’s matchup, as his 14 end zone targets are tied for seventh-most amongst all receivers in the league. Far from a smash play, a world exists where Cooks could turn in a solid Week 18 — especially with so much at stake and other star receivers left on the sideline.
Tight Ends
Week 17 Expected Points
| Player | Team | EP | FPOE | PPR |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | 23.1 | -7.7 | 15.4 |
| Juwan Johnson | NO | 19.1 | 3.9 | 23.0 |
| Gerald Everett | LAC | 13.2 | -5.5 | 7.7 |
| Johnny Mundt | MIN | 13 | 0.9 | 13.9 |
| David Njoku | CLE | 11.9 | 7.5 | 19.4 |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | 11 | 1.7 | 12.7 |
| Trey McBride | ARI | 10.4 | 0.4 | 10.8 |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | 10 | 5.7 | 15.7 |
| Tanner Hudson | CIN | 9.9 | -3.1 | 6.8 |
| Isaiah Likely | BAL | 9.8 | 8.4 | 18.2 |
| Evan Engram | JAC | 9.7 | 2.3 | 12.0 |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | 9.4 | 1.4 | 10.8 |
| Darren Waller | NYG | 9.3 | 0.8 | 10.1 |
| Cade Otton | TB | 9.2 | -6.2 | 3.0 |
| Noah Fant | SEA | 8.7 | 2.2 | 10.9 |
Johnny Mundt (MIN, 13.0 Expected Points)
In the Vikings’ first game without T.J. Hockenson (torn ACL), veteran tight end Johnny Mundt emerged to lead Minnesota’s tight ends group.
His 31 routes run were second only to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, and his 10 snaps from the slot were tied for second-most on the team. Mundt made the most of his opportunities in a negative game script when he turned seven targets into four receptions for 39 yards and a touchdown.
The Vikings still have an outside shot at securing a playoff berth and will look to Nick Mullens to help them secure the win. While Mullens has been up-and-down in his outings, the Vikings haven’t been shy about letting him air it out. In their last three games, the Vikings have a pass rate over expected of four percent, and have thrown at a 59 percent rate in neutral game scripts. When trailing by a field goal or more, their pass rate has jumped to 70 percent.
In addition to their aggressiveness through the air, the Vikings also get a Lions defense that has been a pass funnel all season. Denny Carter again highlights this in his most recent article. Over the last five weeks, the Lions have also allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends (14.7) and the 11th-most targets per game (7.6).
Between injuries to the position and several high-end starters potentially sitting (Travis Kelce, David Njoku, Isaiah Likely, Dallas Goedert), Mundt could be on the Week 18 streaming radar in a matchup that could be ripe for fantasy production.
