Week 18 Expected Points: Streamers to target in regular-season finale

Hello, and welcome to my Week 18 Expected Points article.

For those who may be new here and are curious about expected points, you should know that expected points come from the previous week’s games and are not projections. Expected points (EP) apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where a player is on the field when they receive said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected fantasy points based on what they did with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected (FPOE).

Expected points are a usage stat that can help us identify players to target in the coming weeks, which I attempt to do every week in this article.

In addition to the handful of players I write up, I provide the highest EP totals from the previous week for:

• 50 running backs
• 50 wide receivers
• 24 tight ends

With plenty of potential gems to target in Week 18, here are some guys who caught my eye.

Running Backs

Week 17 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
Jonathan Taylor	IND	26.1	1.5	27.6
Chase Brown	CIN	23.6	-10.5	13.1
Bijan Robinson	ATL	23.2	1.6	24.8
Derrick Henry	BAL	19.6	4.9	24.5
Ameer Abdullah	LV	19.4	-1.7	17.7
Bucky Irving	TB	19.3	3.7	23.0
Saquon Barkley	PHI	18.8	0.1	18.9
Tyrone Tracy Jr	NYG	15.8	-6.5	9.3
Kyren Williams	LAR	15.3	0.9	16.2
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	15.2	11.1	26.3
Tyjae Spears	TEN	15	-1.7	13.3
Jaylen Warren	PIT	14.1	2.1	16.2
Aaron Jones	MIN	13.8	-2.1	11.7
JK Dobbins	LAC	13.4	1.9	15.3
Rico Dowdle	DAL	12.8	-1	11.8
Brian Robinson Jr	WAS	12.5	-3.6	8.9
Isaac Guerendo	SF	12.5	1.4	13.9
D’Andre Swift	CHI	12.1	0	12.1
Josh Jacobs	GB	11.8	1.1	12.9
Michael Carter	ARI	11.7	-1.6	10.1
Alexander Mattison	LV	11.5	-6.7	4.8
Travis Etienne	JAC	11.5	-3	8.5
James Cook	BUF	11.1	0.2	11.3
Joe Mixon	HOU	10.9	-5	5.9
Najee Harris	PIT	10.8	-0.7	10.1
D’Onta Foreman	CLE	10.7	-5.8	4.9
Zach Charbonnet	SEA	10.7	-0.1	10.6
Pierre Strong Jr	CLE	9.1	-1.3	7.8
Cam Akers	MIN	8.6	2.7	11.3
Jaleel McLaughlin	DEN	8.2	1.4	9.6
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	NO	7.9	-2.9	5.0
De’Von Achane	MIA	7.5	-1.7	5.8
Antonio Gibson	NE	7	-0.7	6.3
Kareem Hunt	KC	6.8	1.2	8.0
Emanuel Wilson	GB	6.7	2.2	8.9
Tank Bigsby	JAC	6.7	-3.4	3.3
Craig Reynolds	DET	6.4	2.2	8.6
Breece Hall	NYJ	6.3	0	6.3
Keaton Mitchell	BAL	6.3	-0.5	5.8
Chris Rodriguez Jr	WAS	6.2	3.6	9.8
Raheem Mostert	MIA	5.6	-1.7	3.9
Audric Estime	DEN	5.5	-0.8	4.7
Hassan Haskins	LAC	5.5	-0.5	5.0
James Conner	ARI	5.3	-2.5	2.8
Sean Tucker	TB	5.2	0.2	5.4
Jermar Jefferson	DET	5.1	-4.2	0.9
Jerome Ford	CLE	4.8	-2.6	2.2
Jeremy McNichols	WAS	4.7	-1.7	3.0
Rachaad White	TB	4.6	-0.2	4.4
Ty Johnson	BUF	4.4	-0.9	3.5

Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN, 8.2 Expected Points)

The Broncos are one of a few teams who are still fighting for a playoff spot, while simultaneously facing off against a team full of backups. The Chiefs are expected to sit several of their starters in Week 18, which means Jaleel McLaughlin will be getting the Chiefs’ B-squad on defense — at least to some degree.

Since Week 14, McLaughlin’s 19 percent opportunity share leads all Broncos running backs, while his 22 opportunities rank third — although McLaughlin has played in one fewer game due to being sidelined in Week 16. McLaughlin’s 110 yards from scrimmage over that span also leads the team, and he should be in line to once again lead the team after totaling 76 yards from scrimmage on 12 opportunities last week against the Bengals.

Blake Corum (LAR, 1.4 Expected Points)

You won’t find Blake Corum’s name on the above table, as the rookie saw just three opportunities in last week’s win over the Cardinals. It was a typical stat line for Corum, who has been lightly used this season, but that’s expected to change in Week 18 against the Seahawks.

Speaking on The Coach McVay Show earlier this week, Sean McVay said he’s “excited about watching Blake Corum get a heavy workload” in the season finale. Corum feels like a near lock to get double-digit touches on Sunday against a Seahawks defense that’s allowing the fifth-highest yards per carry (4.6) in the league while also ranking in the bottom 10 in missed tackles rate (17 percent), YCO/ATT (2.28), and YBCO/ATT (1.94).

It’s hard to know how many backup linemen Corum will be running behind, but he still has the making of a solid volume-based play for fantasy managers still in need of a Week 18 dart throw.

Wide Receivers

Week 17 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
Jerry Jeudy	CLE	30.5	-9.1	21.4
Ja’Marr Chase	CIN	28.1	-8.9	19.2
Tee Higgins	CIN	23.9	18.2	42.1
Puka Nacua	LAR	23.3	-0.4	22.9
Amon-Ra St Brown	DET	20.7	-0.7	20.0
Drake London	ATL	20.5	-2.9	17.6
Jameson Williams	DET	20.3	-1.8	18.5
Justin Jefferson	MIN	19	-1.8	17.2
Romeo Doubs	GB	19	-4.2	14.8
Michael Pittman Jr	IND	18.9	7	25.9
Ricky Pearsall	SF	18.7	10	28.7
Mike Evans	TB	18	11.7	29.7
Brian Thomas Jr	JAC	17.1	6.8	23.9
Jauan Jennings	SF	17	-3.3	13.7
Olamide Zaccheaus	WAS	16.8	6.5	23.3
Marvin Harrison Jr	ARI	16.6	-1	15.6
Xavier Worthy	KC	16.6	6.3	22.9
Jakobi Meyers	LV	16.5	0.6	17.1
Courtland Sutton	DEN	15.9	0.6	16.5
Alec Pierce	IND	15.6	8.6	24.2
Ladd McConkey	LAC	15.6	13.8	29.4
Tyreek Hill	MIA	15	4.5	19.5
Garrett Wilson	NYJ	14.2	5.4	19.6
John Metchie III	HOU	14.2	-4.4	9.8
Malik Nabers	NYG	14.2	21.9	36.1
Xavier Legette	CAR	14.1	-6.3	7.8
Tre Tucker	LV	13.9	-3	10.9
DJ Moore	CHI	13.8	-1.6	12.2
Jordan Addison	MIN	13.8	5.1	18.9
Davante Adams	NYJ	13	-3.3	9.7
Keenan Allen	CHI	12.5	-5	7.5
Marvin Mims Jr	DEN	12.5	17.7	30.2
Quentin Johnston	LAC	12.5	-2.7	9.8
DeVonta Smith	PHI	12.2	17.8	30.0
Michael Wilson	ARI	11.9	-5	6.9
Keon Coleman	BUF	11.7	0	11.7
Brandin Cooks	DAL	11.6	-2.4	9.2
Terry McLaurin	WAS	11.5	-10	1.5
Jalen McMillan	TB	11	12	23
Marquise Brown	KC	11	-2.4	8.6
Elijah Moore	CLE	10.7	-9.6	1.1
Josh Palmer	LAC	10.5	-2.4	8.1
Wan’Dale Robinson	NYG	10.3	7.8	18.1
Adam Thielen	CAR	10.1	17.9	28.0
Calvin Ridley	TEN	9.6	4.5	14.1
George Pickens	PIT	9.6	-1.6	8.0
Khalil Shakir	BUF	9.3	-3.8	5.5
Malik Washington	MIA	9.1	-2.1	7.0
Jamison Crowder	WAS	8.7	-3.2	5.5
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	TEN	8.7	-2	6.7

Marvin Mims (DEN, 12.5 Expected Points)

Marvin Mims broke out for 8-103-2 on eight targets in last week’s loss to the Bengals. The second-year receiver still isn’t seeing enough routes (16.5 routes/gm in last four games), but .0303 TPRR over that span would make for an elite number amongst more heavily-used receivers.

While Mims hasn’t been the most heavily used receiver in the league during his hot streak, the Broncos have been intentional about getting him the ball. Per the Fantasy Points Data Suite, Mims’ 11 designed targets since Week 13 rank as the third most of any receiver in the league.

As previously mentioned, the Broncos are in must-win territory and will face a Chiefs team that is expected to roll out several backups. Mims shouldn’t be counted on as anything more than a boom-or-bust WR4, but with that said, he has two top-12 PPR weeks on his ledger in his last four games.

Jalen McMillan (TB, 11.0 Expected Points)

I touted McMillan in last week’s expected points article, only to watch him go for 23.0 PPR points (WR13) while hauling in 5-of-5 targets for 51 yards and two touchdowns. McMillan has now scored in four straight games and has six touchdowns over that span.

The stakes remain high for the Buccaneers heading into Week 18. A win over the Saints secures them the top spot in the NFC South and a playoff berth. During McMillan’s four-game touchdown streak, the rookie receiver has caught 19-of-25 targets for 242 yards and six touchdowns while running 128 routes (32.0 routes/gm). His nine red zone targets are also tied for sixth-most over that span.

McMillan gets a Saints defense that’s allowed the 17th most PPR points per game (34.9) since Week 13 and the fourth most expected fantasy points per game (37.8).

Tight Ends

Week 17 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
Trey McBride	ARI	31.9	-1.6	30.3
Mike Gesicki	CIN	21.5	-2.9	18.6
Travis Kelce	KC	20.2	2.2	22.4
Zach Ertz	WAS	16.5	8.7	25.2
Juwan Johnson	NO	14.7	-2.1	12.6
Tyler Conklin	NYJ	14.3	7.4	21.7
George Kittle	SF	13.8	5.4	19.2
Pat Freiermuth	PIT	13.7	-0.7	13.0
Sam LaPorta	DET	13.6	4.8	18.4
Jordan Akins	CLE	13.5	-2.6	10.9
Brock Bowers	LV	10.9	3.7	14.6
Chigoziem Okonkwo	TEN	10.5	0.4	10.9
TJ Hockenson	MIN	9	2.8	11.8
Kyle Pitts	ATL	8.5	5.9	14.4
Dalton Schultz	HOU	7.7	-3.6	4.1
Jake Ferguson	DAL	7.6	-2.8	4.8
Kylen Granson	IND	7.6	-1.2	6.4
Foster Moreau	NO	7.5	6.2	13.7
Jonnu Smith	MIA	7.5	4.1	11.6
Noah Fant	SEA	7.4	0.9	8.3
Tyler Higbee	LAR	6.5	-3.6	2.9
Devin Culp	TB	6.1	2.1	8.2
Payne Durham	TB	6	5.6	11.6
Mark Andrews	BAL	5.7	9.1	14.8
Elijah Higgins	ARI	5.4	-1.1	4.3

Zach Ertz (WSH, 16.5 Expected Points)

Zach Ertz can earn up to $750k in incentives in Week 18 against the Cowboys. The veteran tight end. The veteran tight end has three different incentives worth $250k a piece, and will need nine receptions for 90-plus yards and two touchdowns if he hopes to get there.

It’s an admittedly steep hill to climb, but Ertz has been as sure-handed as they come for the Commanders this season, catching 61 passes for 610 yards and six touchdowns on 86 targets, and is fresh off a 6-72-2 game against the Falcons last week.

The Commanders can improve their seeding in the NFC playoffs with a win on Sunday over the Cowboys, so we expect them to give it their all in the season finale.

In Week 12’s loss to the Cowboys, Ertz caught 6-of-8 targets for 38 yards and a touchdown. Even if he doesn’t hit his incentive marks, there’s a good chance the volume is enough to lead to a productive fantasy week to close out the regular season.