Earlier this week, I published my Week 16 Snap Report, highlighting some running backs who saw encouraging snap shares in their season-openers. This expected points column will work somewhat in conjunction with my weekly snap reports.
For those unfamiliar, expected points apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where they were on the field when they received said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected points based on what they do with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected.
In hopes of pinpointing some deeper plays to make on a week-to-week basis, I’ll utilize what we’ve seen in expected points to highlight some players who could be slept on heading into upcoming weeks.
Under each position, I will also provide tables of expected fantasy points from the previous week, sorted by the most to the fewest expected fantasy points.
NOTE: I am currently away with family celebrating my brother-in-law graduating med school. As a result, the snap reports/expected points articles for Weeks 16 and 17 will only include the table of the snap/expected points data that I have been providing every week this season. Be sure to check back in to get what you need as you continue toward a fantasy championship.
NOTE 2.0: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.
Running Backs
Week 16 Expected Points
| Player | Team | EP | FPOE | PPR |
| Breece Hall | NYJ | 35.2 | 7.9 | 43.1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 23.9 | 2.1 | 26.0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | 23.4 | 1.7 | 25.1 |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | 22.8 | -3.6 | 19.2 |
| Rachaad White | TB | 22.2 | -2.5 | 19.7 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | NE | 20.9 | 0.1 | 21.0 |
| Saquon Barkley | NYG | 20.8 | -1.4 | 19.4 |
| Aaron Jones | GB | 19.5 | -5 | 14.5 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | 18.6 | -8.3 | 10.3 |
| David Montgomery | DET | 17 | -2.1 | 14.9 |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | 16.4 | 0 | 16.4 |
| Javonte Williams | DEN | 16.3 | -3.4 | 12.9 |
| Derrick Henry | TEN | 14.3 | 7.2 | 21.5 |
| James Conner | ARI | 13.8 | 8.4 | 22.2 |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | 13 | -4.5 | 8.5 |
| Austin Ekeler | LAC | 13 | -1.2 | 11.8 |
| Khalil Herbert | CHI | 13 | 6.1 | 19.1 |
| D’Andre Swift | PHI | 12.3 | 2.9 | 15.2 |
| Isiah Pacheco | KC | 12.3 | 0.3 | 12.6 |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | 12.2 | -1.8 | 10.4 |
| Tyjae Spears | TEN | 12.2 | -0.5 | 11.7 |
| Zamir White | LV | 12.2 | 2.3 | 14.5 |
| Emari Demercado | ARI | 12 | 0 | 12 |
| Jerome Ford | CLE | 11.9 | -2.6 | 9.3 |
| Joe Mixon | CIN | 11.8 | -2.8 | 9.0 |
| Raheem Mostert | MIA | 11.7 | 0.3 | 12.0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | 11.5 | 0.6 | 12.1 |
| Kareem Hunt | CLE | 11.3 | -1.7 | 9.6 |
| Kenneth Walker III | SEA | 11 | -4.4 | 6.6 |
| Gus Edwards | BAL | 10.9 | 3.1 | 14.0 |
| Najee Harris | PIT | 10.3 | 3.5 | 13.8 |
| James Cook | BUF | 10.2 | -3.2 | 7.0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | DEN | 9.9 | 0.8 | 10.7 |
| Roschon Johnson | CHI | 9.6 | -1.3 | 8.3 |
| Antonio Gibson | WAS | 9.4 | 0.8 | 10.2 |
| Tony Pollard | DAL | 9.4 | -4.1 | 5.3 |
Wide Receivers
Week 16 Expected Points
| Player | Team | EP | FPOE | PPR |
| Amari Cooper | CLE | 30.1 | 21.4 | 51.5 |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | 28.5 | -12.7 | 15.8 |
| Amon-Ra St Brown | DET | 24.9 | 3.7 | 28.6 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | 22.9 | -0.7 | 22.2 |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | 22.5 | -11.6 | 10.9 |
| Rashee Rice | KC | 21.9 | -10.2 | 11.7 |
| Deebo Samuel | SF | 21.2 | -11.8 | 9.4 |
| Tyreek Hill | MIA | 21.2 | -2.3 | 18.9 |
| Puka Nacua | LAR | 21.1 | 11.9 | 33.0 |
| Chris Olave | NO | 20.6 | 2.7 | 23.3 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | 19.6 | 5.6 | 25.2 |
| Chris Godwin | TB | 19.5 | -5.6 | 13.9 |
| Calvin Ridley | JAC | 19.4 | 6.4 | 25.8 |
| AJ Brown | PHI | 18.6 | -4.6 | 14.0 |
| Tyler Lockett | SEA | 17.1 | -1 | 16.1 |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | 16.6 | 9.5 | 26.1 |
| Rashid Shaheed | NO | 15.1 | 3.3 | 18.4 |
| Tee Higgins | CIN | 14.5 | 10.5 | 25.0 |
| Mike Evans | TB | 14.4 | 13.2 | 27.6 |
| Andrei Iosivas | CIN | 14.1 | -6.5 | 7.6 |
| DJ Chark | CAR | 13.9 | 13.9 | 27.8 |
| Josh Downs | IND | 13.9 | -4 | 9.9 |
| Demario Douglas | NE | 13.3 | -0.9 | 12.4 |
| Josh Palmer | LAC | 13 | -3.3 | 9.7 |
| Adam Thielen | CAR | 12.6 | 2.8 | 15.4 |
| KJ Osborn | MIN | 12.6 | 7.9 | 20.5 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 12.5 | -0.4 | 12.1 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | 12.2 | -4.3 | 7.9 |
| Nico Collins | HOU | 12 | 1.8 | 13.8 |
| Tyler Boyd | CIN | 11.5 | -0.6 | 10.9 |
| DK Metcalf | SEA | 11.2 | 4.4 | 15.6 |
| Jameson Williams | DET | 11.1 | -1.8 | 9.3 |
| Noah Brown | HOU | 11.1 | -4.3 | 6.8 |
| Alec Pierce | IND | 11 | -5 | 6 |
| Justin Watson | KC | 11 | 2.8 | 13.8 |
| Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG | 11 | -6.4 | 4.6 |
Tight Ends
Week 16 Expected Points
| Player | Team | EP | FPOE | PPR |
| Evan Engram | JAC | 24.4 | -2.9 | 21.5 |
| Dalton Schultz | HOU | 16.6 | -2.5 | 14.1 |
| George Kittle | SF | 16.2 | 3.4 | 19.6 |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | 15.9 | -1.8 | 14.1 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | 14.9 | -5.5 | 9.4 |
| David Njoku | CLE | 14.7 | 1.7 | 16.4 |
| Gerald Everett | LAC | 14.5 | -3.3 | 11.2 |
| John Bates | WAS | 13.1 | -8.7 | 4.4 |
| Tyler Conklin | NYJ | 12.9 | -5.3 | 7.6 |
| Trey McBride | ARI | 12.3 | -3.2 | 9.1 |
| Juwan Johnson | NO | 12 | 2.8 | 14.8 |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | 11.8 | -1.8 | 10.0 |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | 10.8 | -2.3 | 8.5 |
| Durham Smythe | MIA | 10.2 | 0.4 | 10.6 |
| Kylen Granson | IND | 10.2 | 1 | 11.2 |
