Week 17 Expected Points: Deep streamers for championship week

Hello, and welcome to my Week 17 Expected Points article.

For those who may be new here and are curious about expected points, you should know that expected points come from the previous week’s games and are not projections. Expected points (EP) apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where a player is on the field when they receive said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected fantasy points based on what they did with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected (FPOE).

Expected points are a usage stat that can help us identify players to target in the coming weeks, which I attempt to do every week in this article.

In addition to the handful of players I write up, I provide the highest EP totals from the previous week for:

• 50 running backs
• 50 wide receivers
• 24 tight ends

With plenty of potential gems to target in Week 17, here are some guys who caught my eye.

Running Backs

Week 16 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	27.5	-2.1	25.4
Chuba Hubbard	CAR	24.2	8.3	32.5
Saquon Barkley	PHI	19.7	7.3	27.0
De’Von Achane	MIA	19.2	11.8	31.0
Alexander Mattison	LV	18.9	-3.3	15.6
Javonte Williams	DEN	18.5	-6.2	12.3
Josh Jacobs	GB	18.4	2.3	20.7
Jonathan Taylor	IND	17.8	22	39.8
Breece Hall	NYJ	17.7	-3.7	14.0
Kenneth Walker III	SEA	17.3	-3.4	13.9
Bijan Robinson	ATL	17.2	7.1	24.3
Chase Brown	CIN	17.2	-3.3	13.9
Aaron Jones	MIN	16.3	-4	12.3
Derrick Henry	BAL	16.3	4.6	20.9
Kyren Williams	LAR	15.3	4.6	19.9
Gus Edwards	LAC	15.2	4.9	20.1
Jerome Ford	CLE	14.4	9.7	24.1
Bucky Irving	TB	14.2	4	18.2
Tyjae Spears	TEN	14.2	7.4	21.6
James Conner	ARI	13.8	12.8	26.6
Rachaad White	TB	13.4	-0.4	13.0
Jaylen Warren	PIT	13	1.2	14.2
Jordan Mims	NO	12.8	-4.6	8.2
Tank Bigsby	JAC	12.8	-0.7	12.1
Emanuel Wilson	GB	12.5	0.1	12.6
Ameer Abdullah	LV	12.3	7.2	19.5
Patrick Taylor	SF	11.8	-8.3	3.5
Kareem Hunt	KC	11.3	4.6	15.9
Brian Robinson Jr	WAS	11	-4.9	6.1
Tyrone Tracy Jr	NYG	11	5.9	16.9
James Cook	BUF	10.6	17	27.6
Tony Pollard	TEN	10.5	-2.5	8.0
Antonio Gibson	NE	10.4	-4.8	5.6
Rico Dowdle	DAL	10.4	-2.3	8.1
Joe Mixon	HOU	9.9	-1.8	8.1
D’Andre Swift	CHI	9.2	-0.9	8.3
Michael Carter	ARI	8.9	0.9	9.8
Travis Etienne	JAC	8.8	-3.1	5.7
Chris Brooks	GB	7.9	1.6	9.5
Jeremy McNichols	WAS	7.8	0	7.8
Michael Burton	DEN	7.8	3.1	10.9
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	7.5	6.8	14.3
Kendre Miller	NO	6.8	-1.7	5.1
Raheem Mostert	MIA	6.8	-0.2	6.6
Isiah Pacheco	KC	6.6	-3.1	3.5
Tyler Allgeier	ATL	6.5	-2.4	4.1
Audric Estime	DEN	6.3	4.5	10.8
D’Onta Foreman	CLE	5.5	-5.4	0.1
Najee Harris	PIT	5.5	-1.3	4.2
Zach Charbonnet	SEA	5.1	-1.8	3.3

Alexander Mattison (LV, 18.9 Expected Points)

Are we really doing this again? Sadly, I believe we are. After missing three games with an ankle injury, Mattison played second fiddle to Sincere McCormick in Week 15, but was back in the driver’s seat in last week’s win over the Jaguars. Mattison led the Raiders’ backfield in snaps (29) and opportunities (19) and caught 4-of-6 targets for 43 yards and a touchdown.

That touchdown is what saved Mattison’s fantasy day, but the opportunities should once again be there against a Saints defense that’s been amongst the worst in the league at stopping the run, allowing the third-most rushing yards per game and the second-most yards per carry (4.9).

This is a weakness vs. weakness matchup. For as bad as the Saints are at stopping the run, the Raiders are equally as bad at running the ball (3.5 YPC, ranked 32nd). That said, Mattison has finished as a top-24 PPR back in five of the 12 games he’s appeared in this season and has averaged 13.6 PPR points/gm in games where he’s seen double-digit carries.

Mattison will never be my preferred option at running back, but there is a path for him to have a productive day for fantasy managers in need of a streaming option during the biggest week of the fantasy season.

Devin Singletary (NYG, 2.1 Expected Points)

This play depends solely on the availability of Tyrone Tracy Jr., who has been a DNP in both practices to start the week. If Tracy can’t go in Week 17’s game against the Colts, Singletary should be in line to handle most of the Giants’ touches against a defense that’s allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game (28.2) to opposing running backs since Week 11.

Folks may remember that Singletary was signed last offseason to serve as the Giants’ RB1 after Saquon Barkley left for Philly. Singletary averaged 16.8 opportunities/gm in his first four games as a Giant but lost his role to Tracy after an injury sidelined him in Weeks 5 and 6.

Singletary has just one game with double-digit opportunities since Week 7, but there’s no notable talent behind him — with respect to Eric Gray — that should vulture touches from him, should Tracy be held out. In the two weeks Singletary was sidelined, Gray averaged just 5.5 opportunities/gm and lost a key fumble in Week 5 against the Seahawks that seemingly cost him any hopes at a role as long as Tracy and/or Singletary are healthy.

Far from an attractive play, Singletary’s potential volumes sans Tracy at least puts him in the RB3 conversation with a chance for more upside.

Wide Receivers

Week 16 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
AJ Brown	PHI	27.7	-4	23.7
Davante Adams	NYJ	23.9	-4.1	19.8
Xavier Worthy	KC	23	-2.5	20.5
Malik Nabers	NYG	22.6	-8.8	13.8
Keenan Allen	CHI	22.4	6.7	29.1
Tee Higgins	CIN	22.4	-2.6	19.8
Deebo Samuel	SF	21.9	3.2	25.1
Justin Jefferson	MIN	21.6	14.8	36.4
Wan’Dale Robinson	NYG	20.6	-7.4	13.2
Brian Thomas Jr	JAC	20.4	7.8	28.2
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	20	4	24
Nico Collins	HOU	17.5	-4.5	13.0
DJ Moore	CHI	15.7	-1.7	14.0
Puka Nacua	LAR	15.3	-1.7	13.6
Olamide Zaccheaus	WAS	15.2	8.8	24.0
Marquise Brown	KC	15	-5.5	9.5
Amon-Ra St Brown	DET	14.6	4.4	19.0
Ja’Marr Chase	CIN	14.5	7.9	22.4
Dontayvion Wicks	GB	14.4	-4.1	10.3
Jordan Addison	MIN	14.2	0.3	14.5
Drake London	ATL	14	-3.1	10.9
Zay Flowers	BAL	13.9	1.4	15.3
DeVonta Smith	PHI	13.6	-2.5	11.1
Marvin Harrison Jr	ARI	13.5	-5.6	7.9
CeeDee Lamb	DAL	13	4.5	17.5
Jameson Williams	DET	12.8	13.2	26.0
Tyreek Hill	MIA	12.2	-0.3	11.9
Rome Odunze	CHI	12.1	-0.4	11.7
DK Metcalf	SEA	11.6	3.1	14.7
Mike Evans	TB	11.6	0.3	11.9
Jalen McMillan	TB	11.1	5.6	16.7
Garrett Wilson	NYJ	10.8	0.6	11.4
Kayshon Boutte	NE	10.8	9.7	20.5
Jalen Coker	CAR	10.5	-7.7	2.8
Adam Thielen	CAR	10.4	4.9	15.3
Josh Palmer	LAC	10.3	-1.2	9.1
Demario Douglas	NE	10.2	-2.3	7.9
Tank Dell	HOU	10.1	11.7	21.8
Ladd McConkey	LAC	9.9	4.8	14.7
Quentin Johnston	LAC	9.9	-5.1	4.8
Darnell Mooney	ATL	9.8	3.4	13.2
Jakobi Meyers	LV	9.8	-3.7	6.1
Marvin Mims Jr	DEN	9.8	-0.3	9.5
Khalil Shakir	BUF	9.7	-5.5	4.2
Robert Woods	HOU	9.7	-4.8	4.9
Dante Pettis	NO	9.6	-4.5	5.1
Jauan Jennings	SF	9.6	-0.5	9.1
Parker Washington	JAC	9.6	1.8	11.4
Elijah Moore	CLE	9.3	-5.2	4.1
Courtland Sutton	DEN	8.7	1.3	10.0

Jalen McMillan (TB, 11.1 Expected Points)

Don’t look now, but Jalen McMillan has been running hot for the Buccaneers as of late. Over the last three weeks, McMillan has seen six or more targets in every game he’s played while posting a receiving line of 14-191-4. His 32.0 expected points since Week 14 rank 34th at the position, while his 57.1 PPR points are good for 11th most.

Touchdowns have accounted for 42 percent of McMillan’s fantasy production over that span, but the rookie receiver seems to be developing a good rapport with Baker Mayfield. Amongst fellow Bucs players, only Mike Evans (24) has more targets than McMillan since Week 14.

The Panthers and Buccaneers last squared off in Week 13. In that game, Carolina allowed 38.5 fantasy points to Bucs receivers, which was good for the ninth-highest total on the week. Baker Mayfield threw for just 235-1-2 in that game, but the Bucs will benefit from home-cooking in a must-win game vs. their lowly divisional foes.

McMillan profiles as a solid WR3 who could find himself in a nice fantasy game script if the new and improved Bryce Young pushes things and leads the Panthers to a few touchdowns of his own.

Jalen Coker (CAR, 10.5 Expected Points)

Sticking with this NFC South matchup, rookie wide receiver Jalen Coker could be in line for a bounce-back week after catching just two passes for eight yards against the Cardinals last week.

Coker has seen six or more targets in two of his last three games and gets a Buccaneers secondary that’s been ravaged with injuries this season and is allowing the second-most passing yards per game (250.3).

Adam Thielen (hamstring) was added to Thursday’s injury report and, for now, is at risk of missing Sunday’s game until we see how Thursday unfolds. In addition to Thielen, rookie Xavier Legette is also dealing with a hip and wrist injury that could sideline him for a second straight week.

A potentially thin receiver room could leave the door open for Coker to have a high-volume day against a Buccaneers defense that has allowed top-12 PPR weeks to opposing wide receiver corps in each of their last two games.

Tight Ends

Week 16 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
Brock Bowers	LV	20.5	0.4	20.9
Hunter Henry	NE	19.6	-5.7	13.9
Chigoziem Okonkwo	TEN	16.7	2.4	19.1
David Njoku	CLE	15.6	-1	14.6
George Kittle	SF	14.9	3.7	18.6
Jake Ferguson	DAL	13.1	-3.1	10.0
Dalton Schultz	HOU	12.5	3	15.5
Sam LaPorta	DET	11.3	3	14.3
Tyler Conklin	NYJ	10.8	0.1	10.9
Dalton Kincaid	BUF	10.6	-5.1	5.5
Payne Durham	TB	10.6	-2.7	7.9
Travis Kelce	KC	10.4	-2.4	8.0
Mark Andrews	BAL	10.1	3.7	13.8
Jonnu Smith	MIA	9.7	2.5	12.2
Noah Fant	SEA	8.8	-0.8	8.0
Austin Hooper	NE	8.6	0.9	9.5
Tucker Kraft	GB	6.8	2.7	9.5
Trey McBride	ARI	6.1	-1.1	5.0
Cole Kmet	CHI	5.9	3	8.9
Brenton Strange	JAC	5.8	-1.6	4.2
Kyle Pitts	ATL	5.6	-3.9	1.7
MyCole Pruitt	PIT	5.5	1.6	7.1
Foster Moreau	NO	5.1	0.2	5.3
TJ Hockenson	MIN	5.1	-0.4	4.7

Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN, 16.7 Expected Points)

As a rookie in 2022, Chig Okonkwo posted 32 receptions for 450 yards and three scores while averaging an impressive 14.1 YPR. He ran things back in 2023 with a 54-528-1 line but had been a non-factor in the Titans’ offense for most of this season before this past month.

After totaling just 23-192-1 through the first 10 games of the season, Okonkwo has caught 24 passes for 245 yards and a touchdown in his last five games while drawing 32 targets — the seventh most of any tight end since Week 12. His 126 routes run over that span is good for 11th most in the league, while his 0.238 TPRR ranks fifth amongst 14 tight ends (min. 20 targets) since then.

Okonkwo draws a Jaguars defense that has allowed the 14th most PPR points to opposing tight ends since Week 11 and the eighth most points to opposing tight ends overall. In his last two weeks, he has been funneled 21 targets, which he has turned into 17-140-0 and back-to-back top-six PPR finishes.

It’s a small sample size, but Okonkwo is an intriguing streaming option for managers in need of help at the position, now that the Titans’ have rediscovered him late in the season.