Tua Tagovailoa greets shootout conditions for the fantasy semifinals, Joe Flacco attempts to stay hot in Houston, and Brock Purdy and Lamar Jackson square off for a potential Super Bowl preview.
Other positions: Running Back | Receiver | Tight End/Kickers/Defense
Updated 12/24 at 10:00 AM ET. Moved Gardner Minshew down.
Week 16 Quarterbacks
| RK | Player | Opp | Time |
| 1 | Josh Allen | @LAC | Sat, 08:00 pm EST |
| 2 | Jalen Hurts | NYG | Mon, 04:30 pm EST |
| 3 | Tua Tagovailoa | DAL | Sun, 04:25 pm EST |
| 4 | Dak Prescott | @MIA | Sun, 04:25 pm EST |
| 5 | Justin Fields | ARI | Sun, 04:25 pm EST |
| 6 | Brock Purdy | BAL | Mon, 08:15 pm EST |
| 7 | Lamar Jackson | @SF | Mon, 08:15 pm EST |
| 8 | Patrick Mahomes | LV | Mon, 01:00 pm EST |
| 9 | Matthew Stafford | NO | Thu, 08:15 pm EST |
| 10 | Baker Mayfield | JAC | Sun, 04:05 pm EST |
| 11 | Joe Flacco | @HOU | Sun, 01:00 pm EST |
| 12 | Jared Goff | @MIN | Sun, 01:00 pm EST |
| 13 | Trevor Lawrence | @TB | Sun, 04:05 pm EST |
| 14 | Geno Smith | @TEN | Sun, 01:00 pm EST |
| 15 | Jordan Love | @CAR | Sun, 01:00 pm EST |
| 16 | Kyler Murray | @CHI | Sun, 04:25 pm EST |
| 17 | Jake Browning | @PIT | Sat, 04:30 pm EST |
| 18 | Russell Wilson | NE | Sun, 08:15 pm EST |
| 19 | Nick Mullens | DET | Sun, 01:00 pm EST |
| 20 | Derek Carr | @LA | Thu, 08:15 pm EST |
| 21 | Gardner Minshew | @ATL | Sun, 01:00 pm EST |
| 22 | Ryan Tannehill | SEA | Sun, 01:00 pm EST |
| 23 | Aidan O’Connell | @KC | Mon, 01:00 pm EST |
| 24 | Case Keenum | CLE | Sun, 01:00 pm EST |
| 25 | Sam Howell | @NYJ | Sun, 01:00 pm EST |
| 26 | Tommy DeVito | @PHI | Mon, 04:30 pm EST |
| 27 | Mason Rudolph | CIN | Sat, 04:30 pm EST |
| 28 | Taylor Heinicke | IND | Sun, 01:00 pm EST |
| 29 | Bryce Young | GB | Sun, 01:00 pm EST |
| 30 | Bailey Zappe | @DEN | Sun, 08:15 pm EST |
| 31 | Easton Stick | BUF | Sat, 08:00 pm EST |
| 32 | Trevor Siemian | WAS | Sun, 01:00 pm EST |
Sign up to stream the NFL Holiday Exclusive between the Buffalo Bills and the Los Angeles Chargers, only on Peacock, Saturday, Dec. 23 at 7:30 p.m. ET. Visit PeacockTV.com/NFL for more details.
QB Notes: Needless to say, fantasy managers can’t have another week of Josh Allen attempting only 15 passes. The situation is fraught for the semifinals, with the Bills operating as 12-point favorites against the Chargers. Aka: Run-friendly game script. Where fantasy managers can hang their hat is the coach-less Chargers being hilariously bad against the pass and decent against the run. The Bills might also want to avoid running James Cook into the ground with an outdoor Pats game and must-win Dolphins tilt on the horizon. The short of it: There’s no way you’re benching Allen anyways. … Jalen Hurts had a rough Week 15. He was also the QB5. 14 rushing touchdowns is almost unfathomable for a quarterback. It makes Hurts unbenchable even as the Eagles muddle through this rough patch. … Finally a game where Tua Tagovailoa might have to pass for four quarters. Not that we want the young man falling behind. Tagovailoa is not at his best when the defense knows what’s coming (passes in comeback game script). The Dolphins operating as one-point home favorites for a 49.5-totaled affair should be the fantasy sweet spot.
Dak Prescott has finally encountered some rough fantasy waters after a two-month heater. The Dolphins’ defense is also a poor matchup. Semifinals managers can nevertheless rely on the explosive game environment in Miami to get Dak home. … Justin Fields could have been better in Week 15. So could Bears pass catchers who combined for four drops, including two long touchdowns. The Cardinals are a perfect get-right spot for last week’s frustrations. … The Ravens have an elite pass defense that has nevertheless rarely been tested by a soft opposing quarterback slate. It would be foolish to suggest this is a good matchup for Brock Purdy. It’s also not a benchable offense at home with the 49ers’ offensive machine roaring as never before. … Opposing Purdy will be Lamar Jackson, who is venturing on the road for a Christmas Day matchup with one of the toughest defenses in the league. You could rank Jackson ahead of Purdy and not be wrong. I’m tiebreaking in Purdy’s favor since he’s the home option and has spiked more weeks in 2023.
Unbelievably, Patrick Mahomes has lost his high-end QB1 benefit of the doubt. He remains in the top 10 because of his still intact floor and hopefully growing ceiling with Rashee Rice beginning to operate as a real-deal WR1 for fantasy purposes. … Where did this come from for Matthew Stafford, who was looking washed as recently as mid-season? It doesn’t matter. I’m not expecting it to go anywhere for this week’s surprisingly high-totaled short-week home date with the Saints. Stafford has ripped good and bad defenses alike over the past month. … And this is where things really start to get weird. Joe Flacco is the QB5 by average points since becoming Browns starter in Week 13. It’s hard to see a weary Texans defense bringing an end to Joltin’ Joe’s hot streak. Especially with the Browns’ backfield running on fumes, Cleveland’s Flacco game plans have been “pass first, run later.” … The QB1 overall for Week 15? Baker Mayfield. Bakes would typically be an inadvisable “points chase.” The good news is, it’s always advisable to start quarterbacks against the Jags.
Opposing Mayfield will be Trevor Lawrence, who was a Week 15 mega dud against the Ravens. He also lost fill-in No. 2 receiver Zay Jones in the process. I’m placing a low-end QB1 bet because the Bucs are just that good of a matchup. This is also a must-win for a Jags team with a struggling rushing attack. … Jared Goff’s nuclear Week 15 came out of nowhere. It is unlikely to repeat on the road against a Brian Flores defense that had been white hot before one bad quarter against Jake Browning. 17 of Goff’s 26 scores have come at home despite his starts being evenly distributed between Detroit/away. His floor is still high enough to rank him on the QB1 borderline for a contest with a surprisingly robust 46.5 total. … Jordan Love is a difficult Week 16 rank. He had a solid Week 15 against the Bucs at home, but his receiver corps got even more banged up in the process. The Panthers are also not a plus matchup despite being the league’s worst overall team. Love is a two scores-or-bust bet for the fantasy semis.
Gardner Minshew dice-rollers need to have a QB2 backup plan ready in the event Michael Pittman can’t go against the Falcons. The early signs are that he will. … Merely the QB19 by average points over the past month, Kyler Murray could be missing Marquise Brown against what has become a strong Bears defense. His legs aren’t enough to make him a QB1 for the fantasy semis. … Jake Browning has been getting home on big plays. They will be harder to come by with Ja’Marr Chase (shoulder) out for Week 16. The short-handed Steelers have become a neutral matchup at this point, so Browning could still find QB2 success. … Geno Smith had his best start before his Week 14 injury. He’s been an unpredictable 2023 option, but he could spike a week vs. Tennessee. … I have a hard time envisioning Russell Wilson cooking up anything good against the Patriots’ elite defense. … Nick Mullens is the ultimate volume dart throw. … I kept the Sam Howell wild hair faith for too long. My apologies.
Don’t forget, for the latest on everything NFL, check out Rotoworld’s Player News, or follow @Rotoworld_FB or @RotoPat on Twitter.
