We learned an important lesson last week in how a bad offense can torpedo a defensive matchup. I ranked the Chargers inside the top 10 before the news came out about Keenan Allen missing the game; however, I probably would have kept the Chargers high in my rankings with Josh Jacobs out for the Raiders. I couldn’t have envisioned the Chargers offense giving the Raiders the ball four times inside their own 30-yard line. After the second time it happened and the Raiders scored a touchdown, you could see the defense just give up and the wheels fell off.
We’ve seen that happen a few times with the Jets this season, but the Jets defense has been able to hold firm. The Chargers were not. Those kinds of situations can happen this late in the season when a team is out of it, so a little bit of adversity causes the team to fold a bit. We could potentially see that this week with the Chargers again against the Bills, but we could also see the Titans defense put in bad spots if Will Levis misses this game (or even if he plays), and the Jaguars defense put in bad spots if Trevor Lawrence misses time. Other defenses that could be hurt by their offense are teams like the Vikings, Steelers, and Browns; however, all of those teams are in playoff contention, so we’re going to see the defenses fight tooth and nail to prevent scores.
As we head into the semi-finals of the fantasy football playoffs, we want to ensure that we’re taking as few risks as possible, so chasing big scores with defenses that haven’t produced may not be the best idea. Sometimes feeling good about a 6-8 point score can be the right call if we feel the rest of our lineup is safe. However, given all the injury turmoil this year, some of us may be in spots where we need to swing for the fences to make up for beaten up lineups. It’s just important to keep your team context in mind when making lineup decisions this week with your defense.
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BOD Formula and Philosophy
Just a quick reminder of the BOD formula:
(Pressure Rate) + (Knockdowns) + (%Drives ending in a Turnover x2)
Minus
(% Drives ending in a Score) + (Explosive Plays Allowed Per Game x2)
It’s important to clarify that the BOD rankings ARE NOT to be treated as weekly rankings. BOD is meant to tell us who the best fantasy defenses are, but depending on the matchup, they might be ranked differently in a given week. That’s why we have this column where I will be breaking down my rankings for each week and an explanation of why I have the defenses ranked the way I do. The rankings will take into account their BOD ranking, opponent, injuries, weather, etc., but I hope my explanation will help make sense of each ranking.
Special shoutout to Arjun Menon, who calculates the explosive plays per game formula. You can check him out on Twitter here.
Season-Long Accuracy
Throughout the season I’ll keep track of how many top 10 defenses we correctly predicted. I know it’s not quite marking down if I nailed the number one defense each week or the number two, but it’s the most logical way I can think of to keep track of how often a defense I predicted would be a good play actually wound up being a good play. I know we always want the top defense, but I think, more often than not, if we get one of the ten top performing defenses of the week, we’re not mad at the result.
SEASON RECORD FOR TOP 10 PREDICTIONS: 78-of-150 (52%)
So how do things stack up for Week 16?
The Bills put an absolute beating on the Cowboys on Sunday. While the big story is James Cook, we also need to talk about how good the defense looked, holding the top offense in the NFL to 195 total yards and 10 points while sacking Dak Prescott three times and picking him off once. Since the bye, the Bills have allowed 27 points and 541 total yards combined to the Chiefs and Cowboys while forcing three turnovers. On the season, the Bills rank second in turnover rate, fourth in knockdowns per game (which is sacks plus quarterback hits), and seventh in pressure rate. Given what we saw from the Chargers on Thursday night with Easton Stick at quarterback, it’s hard to feel good about the Chargers’ offense considering they give up the second-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month and the Bills need to win every game to feel good about their chances of making the playoffs.
The Browns defense has continuously overcome injuries this season and did so again on Sunday, beating the Bears despite playing without both of their safeties, their starting middle linebacker, and multiple pieces of their defensive line. They still sacked Justin Fields three times and even if their two interceptions were on hail mary’s they hauled them in. They now get a matchup against a Texans’ offense that has been struggling of late, giving up the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month, which includes three C.J. Stroud starts. Stroud and Nico Collins both seem likely to return, but this Texans team is still a bit banged up, and I think this Browns pass rush will cause enough problems to make them a solid play this week. SATURDAY UPDATE: With CJ Stroud out, the Browns are moving on up.
The Jets’ season has been a disaster, but their defense has continued to play hard despite being put in terrible positions time and time again. They held the Dolphins to 290 total yards and sacked Tua Tagovailoa three times. On the season, the Jets rank second in pressure rate, 10th in knockdowns, and 11th in opponent’s scoring rate. I believe the defense can produce solid fantasy results if their offense doesn’t hand the opponent an advantage, and this week’s game against the Commanders feels like one where the Jets offense will at least stay afloat enough to let the defense work from neutral situations. Washington gives up the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month, so I think the Jets remain a strong play here.
The Broncos defense didn’t deliver against Lions, but the Lions offense is a different beast at home. Coming into that game, the Broncos defense was averaging 10.4 fantasy points per game over six weeks, and that type of production doesn’t just vanish. On the season, they rank third in turnover rate, and that bodes well against a Patriots team that has at least one turnover in every game but one this season and has six turnovers over their last four games. The offense has certainly improved a bit under Bailey Zappe, and they now give up the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month, when they had been in the top three beforehand. Still, this is a solid matchup for a Denver team that will be at home and trying to force its way into the playoffs.
The Colts simply continue to deliver and are averaging 13 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. Last week I was concerned that the Steelers’ run-heavy approach would keep the Colts’ ceiling low, but I underestimated how bad Mitchell Trubisky is. Well, Taylor Heinicke isn’t much better; however, the Falcons starting Heinicke over Ridder is a slight downgrade for the Colts. In an admittedly small sample size, Heinicke has just a 1.4% interception rate this season, compared to 2.8% for Ridder, and Ridder has taken sacks at a higher rate than Heinicke as well. Ridder also has a turnover worthy play rate of 5.3% to 4.4% for Heinicke, so while Heinicke isn’t a quarterback we worry about, he’s certainly been less friendly to fantasy defenses than Ridder this year. Still, this will be another run-heavy gamescript from Atlanta that should conceivably prevent lots of sacks and prevent many opportunities for the Colts to turn the ball over, but the Colts have been playing too well to bench and Atlanta gives up the 13th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month, so they should be a solid top ten option.
Every week, we look to the team playing against the Panthers. This week, that’s the Packers. While they have been an inconsistent defense all season, they rank 10th in pressure rate, which is appealing against a Panthers offense that gives up the fourth-most sacks in the NFL and the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month. Given that the Panthers’ offense isn’t the most explosive unit in the NFL, I’m not as worried about the Packers’ propensity to give up big plays in this one, and I think they remain a solid top-10 option primarily on the back of the matchup.
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The Eagles defense has not been playing good football over the last six weeks, averaging 4.2 fantasy points per game and allowing at least 335 total yards in every game but last night, including over 400 yards in four of those games. However, they’re playing a Giants team that doesn’t have the explosiveness to put up 400 yards on offense. Shoot, they’ve only gained over 300 yards of offense once since Week 7. They also gave up seven sacks last week against the Saints and 24 sacks over the last four games. One knock against the Eagles this week is that the Giants have turned the ball over just three times in their last four games, so Tommy DeVito has certainly been taking care of the ball a little better. That still doesn’t scare me off from playing the Eagles.
This Bears defense has been on a roll of late, averaging 12.2 points per game over the last six weeks, which ranks them third in the league. A big part of that has been the addition of Montez Sweat, who has a sack in each of the last four games and has 13 pressures and 3.5 sacks in the last two weeks. However, they now get a Cardinals offense that has given up the 19th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month. It’s not a great spot, and the 49ers needed a defensive touchdown last week to clear eight points against the Cardinals, but with the way this Bears defense is playing, I think you can start them in all league types.
The Seahawks delivered on Monday night, holding the Eagles to just 17 points and picking off Jalen Hurts twice. On the other hand, they had zero sacks and scored just five fantasy points, which continues a poor stretch where they’ve scored just 4.7 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. The positive news for them this week is that the play a Titans offense that has given up the sixth-most fantasy points per game over the last week. The Titans allowed seven sacks to an injury-riddled Texans team, and Will Levis suffered a sprained ankle that may cause him to miss this weekend’s game or at least keep his mobility a little bit limited. That makes the Seahawks a top ten play but a risky one given their lack of production lately.
The Chiefs defense has plateaued a bit of late as they battle injuries and offensive inconsistency. They’ve averaged just 4.8 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. On the season, the Chiefs still rank first in pressure rate, second in opponent’s scoring rate, and fifth in knockdowns per game. While their ceiling may be a little lower than we’ve come to expect, I still think they’re a solid floor play against a Raiders team that is unlikely to have Josh Jacobs for another week. I know the Raiders destroyed the Chargers last week, but a lot of that had to do with the Chargers continuously giving the Raiders the ball inside their own 30-yard line. I don’t expect the same to happen this week.
The Steelers are going to be rolling with Mason Rudolph at quarterback, which means the Bengals are certainly in play. However, the Bengals suffered a few big injuries on defense last week as both defensive tackle DJ Reader and cornerback DJ Ivey were placed on the IR. The Colts delivered last week against the Steelers offense, but Indianapolis has averaged 13 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks while the Bengals have averaged just 5.7, so we shouldn’t simply pencil Cincinnati in because of what Indy did. I think the Bengals are a fine play in deeper leagues, but I don’t love the upside.
Another concern for Cincinnati is how their offense moves the ball without Ja’Marr Chase. Jake Browning has continued to step up and show he’s capable of leading this offense, but the loss of Chase to a separated shoulder is a big one. The Bengals have allowed the 14th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month, even with Browning playing well, so that makes Pittsburgh an intriguing play. However, Pittsburgh losing Minkah Fitzpatrick yet again prevents me from moving them higher than this for now.
The Texans defense showed up on Sunday against the Titans, holding them to 16 points and 204 yards while sacking Will Levis seven times. That was without Will Anderson in the lineup. While I know the Titans offense isn’t world-class, neither is the Browns’, who had just seven points against the Bears when the fourth quarter started and have given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month. On the season, the Texans rank fourth in pressure rate and 11th in knockdowns. With Joel Bitonio banged up for the Browns, I think the Texans’ pass rush can get to an immobile Joe Flacco and put up a solid fantasy day, but I’ll be checking on their injury report pretty closely before finalizing these rankings. SUNDAY UPDATE: With Stroud out, I’ve moved the Texans down considerably. I’ve learned from my Chargers call last week and won’t be trusting an offense that doesn’t have it’s quarterback.
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This is a big tier of a lot of defenses that could be usable in deeper formats depending on your risk tolerance.
It feels like we don’t want to play defenses against the Lions, but even with their explosion last week, the Lions gives up the 15th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month, so they’ve been an average matchup. Meanwhile, the Vikings have averaged 9.6 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. On the season, they rank second in explosive play rate allowed, 13th in turnover rate, and 13th in opponent’s scoring rate. They don’t allow big plays which should help them keep the Lions offense in check enough to put Jared Goff in position to take some sacks and make some mistakes. I don’t believe the ceiling is high, but they can be a solid floor play in deeper leagues.
There’s a narrative that the Lions are not good on the road, but they have an identical 5-2 record on the road and at home. Quick calculations show that the Lions give up 21.9 points at home, compared to 25.4 on the road, but that’s also not considering the difference in quality of opponent, etc. On the season, the Lions are sixth in pressure rate but below average in most other metrics; however, the Vikings have given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month and have given up eight sacks in their last two games and 12 in their last four, which means this Lions pass rush could get home. Given how poorly the Lions defense has looked at times this year, I don’t love the play, but I can see it in deeper formats.
The Dolphins and Cowboys game features two defenses that we normally love to play that I think you need to avoid this week. Yes, the Dolphins have been tremendous for you, averaging 16.2 fantasy points over the last six weeks; yet I think it’s time to move on. I know Dallas laid an egg against the Bills last week, but the Cowboys give up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses, and I can’t see them coming out with two straight duds. If Zack Martin misses then I might move Miami up a couple of spots because they have a solid pass rush, but I don’t love the play. I also don’t love playing Dallas here against a Miami offense that gives up the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month. I expect Tyreek Hill to play, and the Dolphins have the running game to do exactly what James Cook did to the Cowboys this past weekend.
This Bucs ranking could change drastically if it looks like Jacksonville will be without both Trevor Lawrence and Zay Jones, but we’ve seen Lawrence play through all kinds of injuries, so even if he’s in concussion protocol, I’m not going to count him out yet. It seems far more likely Jones will miss, which is a big blow considering the Jags are already without Christian Kirk. That will take some of the explosiveness out of this Jacksonville offense, which makes the Bucs a solid floor play regardless of what happens with Lawrence. On the season, Tampa has been a bit disappointing, but they rank 11th in turnover rate and have averaged just under seven points per game over the last six weeks. With the Jaguars also giving up just under seven points per game over the last month, we can probably count on Tampa for 6-8 points even if Lawrence does play, which makes them a solid deep league option. SUNDAY UPDATE: With Lawrence active, I did not move the Bucs up.
The 49ers remain my number one defense on the year, ranking first in turnover rate, second in knockdowns per game, sixth in explosive play rate allowed, and 10th in opponent’s scoring rate. They’re also averaging 11.3 fantasy points over their last six games. The problem is they’re facing a Ravens offense that gives up the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game over the last month at just 3.3 points per game. You can play the 49ers if you want because of how good they’ve been, but it’s not a great matchup for them.
The Commanders are a deeper league play here only because they’re facing a Jets offense that has given up the most fantasy points to opposing defense over the last month. However, while that usually makes a defense a smash play, there are some real concerns with the Commanders, who have averaged just 1.4 fantasy points per game over the last month. The Jets offense has a turnover problem, but the Commanders defense has forced just three turnovers in the six games since trading Chase Young and Montez Sweat. They’ve also registered just 11 sacks over those six games as well and a ridiculous nine of them came in one game against the Giants in Tommy DeVito’s second career start. I understand the desire to play Washington, and I think you can in deeper formats because the floor is safe, but I don’t love their chances of hitting a high ceiling number this week.
The Ravens and Jaguars are also two defenses that we’ve used throughout the year that I can’t see using this week. The Ravens are strictly due to matchup against a 49ers offense that is the WORST matchup for opposing defenses, allowing just two fantasy points on average over the last month. I don’t think you can risk that in your fantasy semi-finals. Jacksonville has a slightly better matchup, but the Bucs allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses and have gotten Chris Godwin going of late, which could be problematic for a Jaguars secondary that was lit up by Jake Browning just a couple of weeks ago.
I don’t feel comfortable starting any of these defenses in any format.
As I mentioned above, I will update and repost this article on Sunday morning in case there are any changes with injuries or weather reports, etc. Until then, good luck to all this week!
