Week 16 Expected Points: Backup RBs ready to lead you to victory

Hello, and welcome to my Week 16 Expected Points article.

For those who may be new here and are curious about expected points, you should know that expected points come from the previous week’s games and are not projections. Expected points (EP) apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where a player is on the field when they receive said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected fantasy points based on what they did with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected (FPOE).

Expected points are a usage stat that can help us identify players to target in the coming weeks, which I attempt to do every week in this article.

In addition to the handful of players I write up, I provide the highest EP totals from the previous week for:

• 50 running backs
• 50 wide receivers
• 24 tight ends

With plenty of potential gems to target in Week 16, here are some guys who caught my eye.

Running Backs

Week 15 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
James Conner	ARI	23.5	7.3	30.8
Chase Brown	CIN	21.9	4.4	26.3
Josh Jacobs	GB	20.4	3.2	23.6
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	18.2	10.2	28.4
Kyren Williams	LAR	17.3	-4.1	13.2
Brian Robinson Jr	WAS	16.7	-5	11.7
Tyjae Spears	TEN	16.7	10.5	27.2
Aaron Jones	MIN	16.1	2.5	18.6
Joe Mixon	HOU	16	-5.4	10.6
De’Von Achane	MIA	15.1	-0.5	14.6
Travis Etienne	JAC	14.6	-2.1	12.5
Jonathan Taylor	IND	14	-1.9	12.1
Bijan Robinson	ATL	13.8	0.7	14.5
Saquon Barkley	PHI	13.8	-4.4	9.4
Isaac Guerendo	SF	13.5	-2	11.5
Ameer Abdullah	LV	13.4	6.2	19.6
Rico Dowdle	DAL	12.6	2.3	14.9
Tyrone Tracy Jr	NYG	12.4	-7.9	4.5
Bucky Irving	TB	11.9	1.4	13.3
Rachaad White	TB	11.7	4.4	16.1
Devin Singletary	NYG	11.4	1.7	13.1
D’Andre Swift	CHI	10.9	-1	9.9
James Cook	BUF	10.8	15.5	26.3
Tony Pollard	TEN	10.2	0.3	10.5
Ty Johnson	BUF	10.2	7.1	17.3
Chuba Hubbard	CAR	10.1	-1.2	8.9
Breece Hall	NYJ	9.8	3.3	13.1
Alvin Kamara	NO	9.6	7.4	17.0
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	9.6	-0.1	9.5
Zach Charbonnet	SEA	9.4	4.2	13.6
Kareem Hunt	KC	8.8	-2.9	5.9
Antonio Gibson	NE	8.6	-0.2	8.4
Justice Hill	BAL	8.6	9.2	17.8
Jaleel McLaughlin	DEN	8.4	-2	6.4
Alexander Mattison	LV	8.3	-3.9	4.4
Derrick Henry	BAL	8.3	-1.6	6.7
David Montgomery	DET	8.2	-0.7	7.5
Isiah Pacheco	KC	7.9	-2.2	5.7
Kenneth Gainwell	PHI	7.7	1.3	9.0
Cam Akers	MIN	7.6	0.8	8.4
Ray Davis	BUF	7.3	3.6	10.9
Raheem Mostert	MIA	6.9	-1.8	5.1
Tank Bigsby	JAC	6.9	-2.7	4.2
Jerome Ford	CLE	6.7	11.7	18.4
Sincere McCormick	LV	6.7	-2.2	4.5
Kendre Miller	NO	6.5	-1.9	4.6
Javonte Williams	DEN	6.1	-1.8	4.3
Blake Corum	LAR	5.7	-1.7	4.0
Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	5.7	-0.6	5.1
Kimani Vidal	LAC	5.7	-1.5	4.2

Jerome Ford (CLE, 6.7 Expected Points)

Jerome Ford’s 6.7 expected points in last week’s loss to the Chiefs won’t turn any heads, but Ford should be in line for a larger workload with Nick Chubb (foot) now out for the season.

During the first six weeks of the season, Ford operated as the Browns’ lead back and was the RB30 in expected fantasy points (59.2). Despite taking a back seat to Chubb after Chubb returned in Week 7, Ford’s 107.7 total PPR points still lead the Browns by a wide margin, as Chubb managed just 65.3 fantasy points in his eight games played.

This week, Ford and the Browns get a Bengals defense that’s currently ranked 31st in points allowed per game (27.6) and that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game (27.4) to opposing running backs since Week 10. Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who is making his first start of the season, also averaged 6.0 running back targets per game in the three starts he made last season, which is great news for the PPR scammers.

Fantasy managers who have been rostering Ford in hopes of his number getting called in a big moment may finally have their chance to deploy him in a plus Week 16 matchup.

Kendre Miller (NO. 6.5 Expected Points)

Alvin Kamara exited Week 15’s game against the Commanders with a groin injury and didn’t return to the field. Kamara’s injury is reportedly more severe than the team initially thought, and the early word is he is unlikely to play in Week 16 against the Packers.

Enter Kendre Miller.

The second-year back played on 26 offensive snaps last week, leading all running backs (including Kamara), and rushed for a season-high 46 yards on nine carries while also running a season-high 14 routes.

Miller, who was drafted by the Saints in the third round of last year’s draft, was once thought to be the eventual replacement for Kamara. Miller’s size (5'11"/220), and pass-catching abilities had him profiling as an every-down back when he left TCU after the 2022 season.

In just 12 games as a pro, Miller has caught 12-of-16 targets for 116 yards while also rushing for 69-286-2 in limited action.

His expected volume alone will have Miller in fringe RB2 territory this week against the Packers, but the Packers have also allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs (25.2) since Week 11 and have allowed 7.8 targets to them over that span. It’s a situation that feels tailor-made for Miller and one he could flourish in as a Week 16 streaming option.

Wide Receivers

Week 15 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
Amon-Ra St Brown	DET	33.3	6	39.3
Malik Nabers	NYG	26.7	-2.5	24.2
Brian Thomas Jr	JAC	25.3	7.2	32.5
Justin Jefferson	MIN	23.3	-3	20.3
Davante Adams	NYJ	22.9	19.9	42.8
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	22.1	-3.8	18.3
CeeDee Lamb	DAL	22	4.6	26.6
DeVonta Smith	PHI	21.9	6.1	28.0
Keenan Allen	CHI	21.9	-1.7	20.2
Jerry Jeudy	CLE	21.3	0.5	21.8
Xavier Worthy	KC	20.4	-0.8	19.6
AJ Brown	PHI	18.4	6.6	25.0
Ja’Marr Chase	CIN	17.9	0.5	18.4
Mike Evans	TB	17.8	19.1	36.9
Terry McLaurin	WAS	17.8	8.5	26.3
DJ Moore	CHI	16.2	-1.2	15.0
Wan’Dale Robinson	NYG	15.7	-7.9	7.8
Puka Nacua	LAR	14.9	2.9	17.8
Quentin Johnston	LAC	14.8	0.7	15.5
Tee Higgins	CIN	14.8	5	19.8
Courtland Sutton	DEN	14.7	-2.5	12.2
Jakobi Meyers	LV	14.7	-3.8	10.9
Jordan Addison	MIN	14.5	-1.2	13.3
Tim Patrick	DET	14.4	-1.4	13.0
Jauan Jennings	SF	13.8	-8.7	5.1
Deebo Samuel	SF	13	-8.1	4.9
Michael Pittman Jr	IND	12.9	-1.1	11.8
Khalil Shakir	BUF	12.6	3.3	15.9
Jayden Reed	GB	12.5	-1.4	11.1
Josh Downs	IND	12	-5.8	6.2
Nico Collins	HOU	11.7	6	17.7
Rome Odunze	CHI	11.5	-5.6	5.9
Ladd McConkey	LAC	11.2	5.6	16.8
Zay Flowers	BAL	11.1	0.2	11.3
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	NO	10.9	-2.1	8.8
Marvin Harrison Jr	ARI	10.6	-5.4	5.2
Elijah Moore	CLE	10.5	-8.6	1.9
Christian Watson	GB	10.4	-1.8	8.6
Parker Washington	JAC	10.2	-1.8	8.4
Tyreek Hill	MIA	10.1	-4.5	5.6
Jameson Williams	DET	10	2.7	12.7
Malik Washington	MIA	9.7	0.5	10.2
Romeo Doubs	GB	9.7	9.3	19.0
Adam Thielen	CAR	9.6	0.5	10.1
Jalen Coker	CAR	9.5	11.5	21.0
Jalen McMillan	TB	9.5	9	18.5
Garrett Wilson	NYJ	9.3	5.3	14.6
Kayshon Boutte	NE	8.7	-4.8	3.9
DeAndre Hopkins	KC	8.4	0.2	8.6
Devin Duvernay	JAC	8.4	-1.2	7.2

Jakobi Meyers (LV, 14.5 Expected Points)

Whether you realize it or not, if you have Jakobi Meyers on your roster, you should probably be starting him. Six Week 12, the expected points leaders at wide receiver look like this:

• Puka Nacua - 79.4 EP
• Malik Nabers - 78.0 EP
• Jakobi Meyers - 72.2 EP

Meyers has seen the third most points among all wide receivers over the last four weeks, and his 45 targets over that span trail only Malik Nabers (46).

Meyers has only one top-24 PPR week over that span, but Meyer’s volume is such that he’s capable of turning in a high-end week any time he is on the field.

This week, Meyers gets a Jaguars defense that’s allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game (39.2) to opposing receivers since Week 10, along with the sixth-most air yards per game (229.8) and second-most yards after catch (76.8) per game.

Meyers is seeing the kind of volume fantasy managers dream of from their receivers. The matchup is great on paper, and Aidan O’Connell is expected to be back under center after missing Week 15’s game with a knee injury.

Demario Douglas (NE, 6.1 Expected Points)

Demario Douglas just missed the cutoff for the above table, but he has an intriguing Week 16 matchup against the Bills. Douglas leads all Patriots receivers in targets (74), receptions (56), receiving yards (503), and receiving touchdowns (2). He also leads the team with a 78.8 percent slot rate.

This week, Douglas and the Patriots get a Bills defense that has struggled to slow slot receivers as of late.

Since Week 11, the Bills have allowed the second-most receiving yards per game when targeted in the slot (131.7) and have allowed 12.7 slot targets per game over that span. The 10.4 YPA the Bills are allowing from the slot ranks fourth-highest in the league.

In 10 games played with Drake Maye, Douglas is averaging 10.0 fantasy points per game and has seen five or more targets in five of nine games since Week 6. Douglas only caught three passes for 11 yards in last week’s loss to the Cardinals, but he did find the end zone in the defeat.

The Patriots should be in a negative game script for much of Sunday’s game against the Bills. In the event they find themselves in comeback mode, I like Douglas as a cheap PPR scam in leagues where you can start 3-4 wide receivers every week.

Tight Ends

Week 15 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
Brenton Strange	JAC	21.1	-2.8	18.3
Jonnu Smith	MIA	21	-1.2	19.8
Trey McBride	ARI	18.2	-0.5	17.7
Chigoziem Okonkwo	TEN	16.3	-2.4	13.9
Sam LaPorta	DET	15	3.1	18.1
Foster Moreau	NO	12.4	1.5	13.9
Travis Kelce	KC	12.3	-5.6	6.7
Noah Fant	SEA	11.9	-7.4	4.5
Dalton Kincaid	BUF	10.9	-1.6	9.3
Stone Smartt	LAC	10.5	-0.5	10.0
Colby Parkinson	LAR	10.4	-6.3	4.1
Pat Freiermuth	PIT	10.2	1	11.2
TJ Hockenson	MIN	10.2	0	10.2
George Kittle	SF	9.7	0.4	10.1
Noah Gray	KC	9.7	0.4	10.1
Brock Bowers	LV	8.9	-2.4	6.5
Josh Whyle	TEN	7.8	6.9	14.7
Kylen Granson	IND	7.8	-0.1	7.7
Kyle Pitts	ATL	7	-0.2	6.8
Jake Ferguson	DAL	6.8	-2.5	4.3
Juwan Johnson	NO	6.5	-3.3	3.2
Hunter Henry	NE	6.1	0.4	6.5
Austin Hooper	NE	5.9	0.9	6.8
Mike Gesicki	CIN	5.6	1.1	6.7

Brenton Strange (JAC, 21.1 Expected Points)

Sitting atop the tight ends expected points list from Week 15 is Jaguars tight end, Brenton Strange. With Evan Engram ruled out for the season, Strange stepped in to see a career-high 12 targets in Week 15’s loss to the Jets, and walked away with 11 catches for 73 yards and 18.3 PPR points, which was good for the overall TE2 finish on the week.

Last week marked the fifth game Strange has played without Engram, and it was the third game without Engram in which he drew five or more targets. He’s finished as a top-12 fantasy tight end in four of those five games.

For a position as thin as tight end, it doesn’t take much for somebody to get there, and Strange has been consistent with his fantasy production sans Engram. Over their last five games, the Raiders have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (15.7), while surrendering the eighth most targets per game (8.8).

Strange has been listed as limited in both practices to start the week, but we don’t need to be concerned about that until the team gives us a legitimate reason to be. If you find yourself desperate for a tight end streaming option in this week’s semi-finals matchup, there are worse plays you can make than Strange.