Earlier this week, I published my Week 14 Snap Report, highlighting some running backs who saw encouraging snap shares in their season-openers. This expected points column will work somewhat in conjunction with my weekly snap reports.
For those unfamiliar, expected points apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where they were on the field when they received said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected points based on what they do with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected.
In hopes of pinpointing some deeper plays to make on a week-to-week basis, I’ll utilize what we’ve seen in expected points to highlight some players who could be slept on heading into upcoming weeks.
Under each position, I will also provide tables of expected fantasy points from the previous week, sorted by the most to the fewest expected fantasy points.
NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.
Running Backs
Week 14 Expected Points
| Player | Team | EP | FPOE | PPR |
| Joe Mixon | CIN | 28.6 | -7.1 | 21.5 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | NE | 23.2 | 3.8 | 27.0 |
| Zack Moss | IND | 21.1 | -11.5 | 9.6 |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | 20.2 | -0.4 | 19.8 |
| Tony Pollard | DAL | 20.2 | -3.6 | 16.6 |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | 20.1 | -5.8 | 14.3 |
| Derrick Henry | TEN | 19.2 | -1.1 | 18.1 |
| Breece Hall | NYJ | 18.8 | 7.8 | 26.6 |
| Saquon Barkley | NYG | 18.4 | 6.7 | 25.1 |
| Austin Ekeler | LAC | 18.2 | 2.8 | 21.0 |
| Travis Etienne | JAC | 17.8 | -0.6 | 17.2 |
| De’Von Achane | MIA | 15.6 | -3.5 | 12.1 |
| Raheem Mostert | MIA | 15.3 | 7.7 | 23.0 |
| Rachaad White | TB | 15.2 | 6.3 | 21.5 |
| Javonte Williams | DEN | 14.9 | 3.2 | 18.1 |
| Tyjae Spears | TEN | 14.5 | 3.3 | 17.8 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 14 | 3.2 | 17.2 |
| Jerome Ford | CLE | 14 | -0.8 | 13.2 |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | 13.9 | -0.4 | 13.5 |
| Devin Singletary | HOU | 13.8 | -1.3 | 12.5 |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | 13.5 | -1.9 | 11.6 |
| James Cook | BUF | 11.9 | 13.2 | 25.1 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | 11.1 | -2.3 | 8.8 |
| AJ Dillon | GB | 10.9 | -1.1 | 9.8 |
| Kenneth Walker III | SEA | 10.4 | -1 | 9.4 |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | 10.3 | -1.6 | 8.7 |
| Rico Dowdle | DAL | 10.2 | 2 | 12.2 |
| Chase Brown | CIN | 10 | 9.5 | 19.5 |
| Najee Harris | PIT | 9.8 | -2 | 7.8 |
| Ty Chandler | MIN | 9.8 | -2.6 | 7.2 |
| D’Onta Foreman | CHI | 9.3 | -0.1 | 9.2 |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | 9.1 | 7.2 | 16.3 |
| David Montgomery | DET | 9 | 2.5 | 11.5 |
| Josh Jacobs | LV | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| Kareem Hunt | CLE | 8.7 | 1.3 | 10.0 |
| Samaje Perine | DEN | 7.7 | 1.7 | 9.4 |
Tyjae Spears (TEN, 14.5 Expected Points)
Titans rookie Tyjae Spears has been one of the more interesting running backs in the league. The rare RB2 who actually gets playing time behind Derrick Henry, Spears has rushed 73 times for 358 yards and one touchdown on the year while adding another 39-281-0 through the air.
One of the more efficient running backs, Spears is averaging an impressive 4.9 yards per carry and 5.7 yards per touch. Among running backs with at least 50 carries, he ranks sixth in YCO/ATT (3.47) and is fourth in explosive run rate (8.2 percent), trailing only De’Von Achane, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Jaylen Warren.
That said, the Titans have yet to commit to him in a way that’s enticing for fantasy. Specializing as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, Spears’ skillset has proven more valuable to the Titans in negative game scripts than in more neutral game environments. Here’s a look at the expected points splits between Henry and Spears this season.
| Player | EP | EP When Trailing by 4+ PTs | % of EP When Trailing |
| Derrick Henry | 172.8 | 63.7 | 36.9% |
| Tyjae Spears | 114.7 | 56.4 | 49.2% |
Over the last two weeks, Spears has totaled 34.0 expected points — the 10th-most of any running back. Sticking with the trend of being utilized while trailing, Spears saw 16.2 of EP (47.7 percent) come when trailing by four or more points.
This is notable for anybody buying into Spears’ recent string of success as the Titans prepare to face a Texans team that could be without C.J. Stroud, Tank Dell, and Nico Collins. Fantasy managers eager to start Spears as a potential top-24 option should keep this in mind when making their decisions, as the Titans are currently 2.5-point favorites on BetMGM. That number could grow if/when Stroud is officially ruled out.
With back-to-back top-24 fantasy performances to his name, nobody doubts Spears’ ability to put up meaningful fantasy weeks, but a positive game script against the Texans could limit his overall upside. Our rankings king, RotoPat, has Spears ranked as an RB39 on the week, putting him in RB4 territory.
Rico Dowdle (DAL, 10.2 Expected Points)
Rico Dowdle is on my short list of running backs I’m interested in stashing heading into the fantasy playoffs. The unquestioned RB2 behind Tony Pollard, Dowdle has seen a slight increase in opportunities over the last five weeks.
Since Week 10, Dowdle has had two top-24 PPR finishes, averaging 0.95 fantasy points per touch. For some perspective, Breece Hall’s 0.95 fantasy points per touch on the season are good for sixth-most amongst qualified running backs.
Currently rostered in only 11 percent of Yahoo leagues and 16 percent of Sleeper leagues, Dowdle is a Tony Pollard injury away from turning into a league winner. Fantasy managers who can afford to stash him on a week-to-week basis would be wise to lock him in before Saturday as a high-end insurance option.
Wide Receivers
Week 14 Expected Points
| Player | Team | EP | FPOE | PPR |
| DJ Moore | CHI | 25.5 | 3.3 | 28.8 |
| Calvin Ridley | JAC | 22 | -12.7 | 9.3 |
| Jayden Reed | GB | 22 | -1.5 | 20.5 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | TEN | 21.7 | 3.7 | 25.4 |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | 21 | -0.9 | 20.1 |
| Zay Jones | JAC | 20.8 | -12.9 | 7.9 |
| Amari Cooper | CLE | 20.5 | -5.8 | 14.7 |
| Rashee Rice | KC | 20.4 | -0.2 | 20.2 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | 20 | -13.6 | 6.4 |
| AJ Brown | PHI | 19.6 | -1.2 | 18.4 |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | 19.5 | 8 | 27.5 |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | 19.5 | -6.7 | 12.8 |
| Drake London | ATL | 19.1 | 10.1 | 29.2 |
| Deebo Samuel | SF | 18.2 | 15.8 | 34.0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | LAR | 18.2 | -4.6 | 13.6 |
| Michael Pittman Jr | IND | 17.7 | 1.8 | 19.5 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | 16.6 | 2.5 | 19.1 |
| Chris Godwin | TB | 16.2 | -5.9 | 10.3 |
| Davante Adams | LV | 16.1 | -3.8 | 12.3 |
| Odell Beckham Jr | BAL | 15.4 | 4.3 | 19.7 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | 15.4 | 4.6 | 20.0 |
| Amon-Ra St Brown | DET | 14.8 | -9.7 | 5.1 |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI | 14.8 | -2.5 | 12.3 |
| Puka Nacua | LAR | 14 | 0 | 14 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | SF | 13.8 | 4.8 | 18.6 |
| Jonathan Mingo | CAR | 13.3 | -9.1 | 4.2 |
| Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG | 13.1 | 4.4 | 17.5 |
| Jaylen Waddle | MIA | 11.8 | 2.1 | 13.9 |
| Romeo Doubs | GB | 11.4 | -4.2 | 7.2 |
| Chris Olave | NO | 11.3 | 1.5 | 12.8 |
| Darnell Mooney | CHI | 11.2 | -4.8 | 6.4 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 11.1 | -4.6 | 6.5 |
| Adam Thielen | CAR | 10.6 | 1.8 | 12.4 |
| Jerry Jeudy | DEN | 10.6 | -7 | 3.6 |
| Diontae Johnson | PIT | 10.5 | 4.2 | 14.7 |
| KJ Osborn | MIN | 10.4 | -4.9 | 5.5 |
Jayden Reed (GB, 22.0 Expected Points)
Christian Watson (hamstring) had yet to practice this week when this article was written. Watson missed last week’s loss to the Giants, which paved the way for rookie Jayden Reed to see a team-high 10 targets. A negative game script that resulted in a loss likely factored into Reed’s high-volume day, as the Packers threw at a 63 percent clip, an eight percent increase from their 55 percent pass rate in neutral game scripts.
Reed has played a pivotal role in the Packers’ offense since the start of the season. The rookie second-rounder played on 32 snaps in his Week 1 debut, posting a receiving line of 2-48-0 on five targets while playing 60 percent of his snaps from the slot.
Fast forward to Week 14, Reed has now caught 48 passes for 540 yards and five touchdowns on 70 targets this season, is playing 75.6 percent of his snaps in the slot, and is being targeted on 21.3 percent of his routes. His targets per route run rank slightly ahead of guys like Christian Kirk, Zay Flowers, Josh Downs, and Marquise Brown — to name a few.
This week, Reed and the Packers get a Buccaneers defense that’s allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. More importantly, and specifically for Reed, the Buccaneers have also been heavily targeted in the slot.
The 147 slot targets they’ve allowed this season are tied for fourth-most in the league, and the 1,270 receiving yards they’ve allowed to the slot are good for second-most. They’re also allowing the second-most YAC/REC (6.44) in the slot, and Reed’s 4.7 YAC/REC is good for fourth most amongst receivers who have played at least 60 percent of their snaps from the slot.
Assuming Watson misses this week, Week 15 is ripe for another blowup for Reed, who has three top-12 fantasy finishes in the last five weeks.
Odell Beckham Jr. (BAL, 15.4 Expected Points)
I’m anxiously awaiting Denny Carter’s funnel report article as I write this, but I am certain Ravens receivers will be touched on. Without stealing too much of Mr. Carter’s thunder, let’s just say the Jaguars’ defense has been a true “get right” team for receivers and their quarterbacks.
NOTE: Denny Carter’s Week 15 Funnel Defense Report has since been written and can be read HERE.
Over the last five weeks, the Jaguars have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game (40.7) to opposing receivers, while opposing quarterbacks have scored the second-most points per game (26.5).
Since losing Mark Andrews (ankle) in Week 11 against the Bengals, the Ravens have targeted Beckham 7.5 times per game — 21 percent target share. While Zay Flowers’ nine targets per game and 26 percent target share over that span lead the team, OBJ’s 131 yards are 46 more than the Ravens’ next closest receiver, and his 18.3 aDOT over that span is second only to Courtland Sutton (19.9 aDOT) amongst all receivers in the league with at least 15 targets.
After a slow start to the season, Beckham has slowly rounded into vintage form. Over the last five weeks, here is where he ranks amongst qualified receivers in several efficiency metrics:
- 22.5 Yards Per Reception — 1st
- 6.1 YAC/REC — 11th
- 4.19 YPRR — 2nd
- 91.8 PFF WR Grade — 2nd
In addition to OBJ’s recent success, the Ravens have seen a slight increase in their early-down pass rate and pass rate over expected.
| Weeks 1-9 | Weeks 10-14 | |
| Early-Down Pass % | 56.5% | 61.3% |
| PROE | 0.0% | 1.0% |
OBJ, Zay Flowers, and, to a much lesser degree, Rashod Bateman are all in play this weekend against the Jaguars. Although, Bateman should be reserved for deeper leagues as a fringe WR4.
Tight Ends
Week 14 Expected Points
| Player | Team | EP | FPOE | PPR |
| Evan Engram | JAC | 22.6 | 9.9 | 32.5 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | 16.1 | -1.8 | 14.3 |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | 15.2 | -3 | 12.2 |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | 15.1 | -8 | 7.1 |
| David Njoku | CLE | 14.6 | 12.5 | 27.1 |
| TJ Hockenson | MIN | 12.3 | -2 | 10.3 |
| Gerald Everett | LAC | 11.1 | -2.2 | 8.9 |
| Cole Kmet | CHI | 11 | 0.6 | 11.6 |
| Isaiah Likely | BAL | 10.6 | 8.7 | 19.3 |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL | 10.5 | 4.2 | 14.7 |
| Cade Otton | TB | 10.2 | -0.6 | 9.6 |
| Jonnu Smith | ATL | 9.9 | -3.2 | 6.7 |
| Pat Freiermuth | PIT | 9.7 | -2.9 | 6.8 |
| Davis Allen | LAR | 9.3 | 5.7 | 15.0 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | TEN | 9.1 | 0.5 | 9.6 |
Dalton Kincaid (BUF, 15.1 Expected Points)
A five-week absence from Dawson Knox gave Dalton Kincaid enough time to cement himself as one of the best rookie tight ends we’ve seen in recent years.
During those five weeks, here’s where Kincaid ranked amongst his fellow tight ends.
- 38 targets — 4th
- 31 receptions — 3rd
- 281 yards — 4th
- 2 TDs — 2nd
- 22 percent Target Share — 7th
- 63.3 Expected Points — 4th
Dawson Knox returned in Week 15 against the Chiefs and caught all three of his targets for 36 yards in a game where Kincaid was equally disappointing. Kincaid managed five catches for 21 scoreless yards and 7.1 fantasy points, but fantasy managers shouldn’t be running from him heading into Week 15.
Admittedly, the Bills have a tough matchup against the Cowboys, who have allowed the eighth-fewest points per game to the tight end position over the last five weeks (9.1). However, Those games have also come against the Giants, Panthers, Commanders, Seahawks, and Eagles. Most fantasy managers aren’t starting tight ends on those teams, and Week 14 marked Dallas Goedert’s return from an arm injury he suffered in Week 9.
Despite an underwhelming game against the Chiefs, Kincaid still saw eight targets on the day — second only to Stefon Diggs (11). The 42 routes he ran were his second-highest total of the season.
Kincaid’s Week 15 was disappointing in many ways, but regarding volume and opportunities, it was exactly what we wanted. Don’t be fooled into thinking Knox’s return led to Kincaid’s down week — that was far from the case.
Isaiah Likely (BAL, 10.6 Expected Points)
It’s been a disappointing season for Isaiah Likely, who had only had two games with 40-plus receiving yards heading into Week 14. In Week 1, when Mark Andrews was out, Likely caught just one pass on one target for four yards. In Week 12 against the Chargers, Likely was targeted six times, which he turned into four receptions for 40 yards.
With Andrews expected to miss the remainder of the season, Likely would ideally evolve into a high-end TE1 for the playoff stretch of the fantasy season. A 54-yard touchdown against broken coverage buoyed last week’s 5-83-1 line against the Rams, but his seven targets were the most he’s seen in a game this season.
Over his last two games, Likely has a 19 percent target share and has run an average of 39 routes per game — the third-most routes of any tight end.
As previously mentioned, the Ravens’ Week 15 matchup with the Jaguars is an excellent spot for their receivers and Lamar Jackson. Unsurprisingly, it should also be an excellent spot for Likely. Over the last five weeks, the Jaguars are allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per game (13.4) to tight ends despite surrendering only 5.4 targets per game — the seventh-fewest.
Likely will have some TE1 upside in Week 15 against the Jags.
