Week 15 Expected Points: Jets’ young backfield taking flight

Hello, and welcome to my Week 15 Expected Points article.

For those who may be new here and are curious about expected points, you should know that expected points come from the previous week’s games and are not projections. Expected points (EP) apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where a player is on the field when they receive said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected fantasy points based on what they did with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected (FPOE).

Expected points are a usage stat that can help us identify players to target in the coming weeks, which I attempt to do every week in this article.

In addition to the handful of players I write up, I provide the highest EP totals from the previous week for:

• 50 running backs
• 50 wide receivers
• 24 tight ends

With plenty of potential gems to target in Week 15, here are some guys who caught my eye.

Running Backs

Week 14 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
Chuba Hubbard	CAR	30.3	-9.6	20.7
De’Von Achane	MIA	29.1	-10.2	18.9
Zach Charbonnet	SEA	29.1	9.2	38.3
Tyrone Tracy Jr	NYG	22.3	-3	19.3
David Montgomery	DET	21.3	-1.9	19.4
Kyren Williams	LAR	19.6	4.1	23.7
Chase Brown	CIN	18.9	5.4	24.3
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	18.9	0.4	19.3
Bijan Robinson	ATL	18.4	1.7	20.1
James Conner	ARI	18	4.2	22.2
Saquon Barkley	PHI	16.4	-2	14.4
Isaiah Davis	NYJ	15.4	0.3	15.7
Sincere McCormick	LV	15.4	-4.5	10.9
Josh Jacobs	GB	15.2	9.4	24.6
Rachaad White	TB	14.7	10.2	24.9
Isaac Guerendo	SF	14.5	12.3	26.8
Alvin Kamara	NO	14.3	-1.4	12.9
Tony Pollard	TEN	14	0.4	14.4
Braelon Allen	NYJ	13.4	-1.3	12.1
D’Andre Swift	CHI	12.8	-7.8	5.0
Isiah Pacheco	KC	12.4	-4.3	8.1
Jaylen Warren	PIT	12	-2.8	9.2
Rico Dowdle	DAL	11.8	3.3	15.1
Tank Bigsby	JAC	11.8	1.4	13.2
Jerome Ford	CLE	11.3	-3.6	7.7
Aaron Jones	MIN	11.2	5.2	16.4
Najee Harris	PIT	10.7	0.6	11.3
Gus Edwards	LAC	8	1.6	9.6
Travis Etienne	JAC	7.8	3.2	11.0
Patrick Taylor	SF	6.8	1.7	8.5
Nick Chubb	CLE	6.6	-1.8	4.8
Kendre Miller	NO	6.4	2.8	9.2
Tyjae Spears	TEN	6.2	-2.9	3.3
James Cook	BUF	6	-1.1	4.9
Kenny McIntosh	SEA	6	0.5	6.5
Kimani Vidal	LAC	5.9	-2.5	3.4
Emari Demercado	ARI	5.8	-0.3	5.5
Blake Corum	LAR	5.7	-2.3	3.4
Jaylen Wright	MIA	5.2	-1.9	3.3
Ameer Abdullah	LV	5	-4.2	0.8
Tyler Allgeier	ATL	4.9	7.4	12.3
Kenneth Gainwell	PHI	4.5	0.8	5.3
Ty Johnson	BUF	4.2	9.3	13.5
Jamaal Williams	NO	4.1	-0.6	3.5
Travis Homer	CHI	4	0.1	4.1
Sean Tucker	TB	3.9	0.8	4.7
Kareem Hunt	KC	3.5	0.4	3.9
Bucky Irving	TB	3.4	-0.6	2.8
Cordarrelle Patterson	PIT	3.2	-2.1	1.1
Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	3.1	-1.5	1.6

Isaiah Davis (NYJ, 15.4 Expected Points)

Jets rookie Braelon Allen was an obvious streamer in Week 14 against the Dolphins with Breece Hall (knee) sidelined. The rookie who was slept on was Isaiah Davis, who the Jets selected in the fifth round of this year’s draft.

Arguably the better of the two backs, Davis looked the part in last week’s loss to the Dolphins, rushing for 10-40-1 while also catching 3-of-6 targets for 27 additional yards. Davis and Allen both saw 16 opportunities in the defeat, but Davis was the only running back to find the end zone on Sunday while averaging 5.2 YPT, and also led the Jets with 3.80 YCO/ATT.

Hall is trending toward missing a second consecutive game, which would put Allen and Davis back in the driver’s seat for Week 15 against the Jaguars. Both backs would be fringe RB2/RB3s and on the streaming radar for those in need of help at the position.

Tank Bigsby (JAX, 11.8 Expected Points)

The Jaguars changed things up with their backfield rotation in Week 14’s win over the Titans. With both Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby healthy, Bigsby led the backfield with 18 carries for 55 yards and a touchdown, while Etienne rushed four times for 20 yards. Per the Fantasy Points Data suite, Bigsby saw 16 of his team-high 20 opportunities come on first or second down while narrowly leading the backfield 30-28 in total snaps.

Bigsby has been hit or miss with the opportunities given to him this season. Through the first seven weeks, Bigsby ran for 67-415-4 while averaging an impressive 6.5 YPT. Since Week 8, Bigsby has averaged just 3.7 YPT on 57 total touches, but the shift we saw last week suggests he could be a solid volume-based play in Week 15 against the Jets.

Since Week 9, the Jets have allowed the 17th-most fantasy points per game (21.3) to opposing running backs in PPR leagues but have held opposing backs to just 3.6 YPC over that span — the third-lowest total in the league. If you’re streaming Bigsby, you’re doing so because of the expected touches and the potential to steal a goal-line touchdown.

He’s a relatively thin play in PPR leagues, having provided his managers with just five receptions in 12 games, but those in need of a dart throw can take a shot on Bigsby, who has shown flashes at various points in the season.

Don’t miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.

Wide Receivers

Week 14 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
Ja’Marr Chase	CIN	30.8	14.3	45.1
Puka Nacua	LAR	28	13.8	41.8
Tyreek Hill	MIA	23.9	4.2	28.1
Jordan Addison	MIN	22.1	17.2	39.3
Calvin Ridley	TEN	21.9	-9	12.9
Amari Cooper	BUF	21.5	-6	15.5
Jaylen Waddle	MIA	20.6	0.3	20.9
Brian Thomas Jr	JAC	20.4	-3.8	16.6
Adam Thielen	CAR	19.7	-0.5	19.2
Davante Adams	NYJ	19.1	6.8	25.9
Ray-Ray McCloud	ATL	18.8	-0.7	18.1
Wan’Dale Robinson	NYG	18.4	-10.6	7.8
Drake London	ATL	17.3	-5.3	12.0
Josh Palmer	LAC	16.6	-2.8	13.8
Malik Nabers	NYG	16.6	-1.7	14.9
Garrett Wilson	NYJ	15.9	2.5	18.4
Jakobi Meyers	LV	15.5	-1.8	13.7
DeAndre Hopkins	KC	14.7	-1.5	13.2
Tim Patrick	DET	14.3	8	22.3
CeeDee Lamb	DAL	13.9	7.5	21.4
Jauan Jennings	SF	13.8	14.2	28.0
Khalil Shakir	BUF	13.8	7.8	21.6
Marvin Harrison Jr	ARI	13.7	-4.8	8.9
DJ Moore	CHI	13.3	-2.4	10.9
Jameson Williams	DET	13.1	-0.1	13.0
Justin Jefferson	MIN	13	19.2	32.2
DeVonta Smith	PHI	12.3	1.4	13.7
Quentin Johnston	LAC	12	3.8	15.8
Cooper Kupp	LAR	11.9	8.3	20.2
Christian Watson	GB	11.8	3.6	15.4
Xavier Legette	CAR	11.7	-5.8	5.9
Jalen McMillan	TB	11.4	10.5	21.9
Darnell Mooney	ATL	10.9	9.3	20.2
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	NO	10.6	-1.5	9.1
Amon-Ra St Brown	DET	10.4	-0.1	10.3
Rome Odunze	CHI	10.4	9.8	20.2
Xavier Worthy	KC	10.1	-0.5	9.6
Darius Slayton	NYG	9.9	-5.2	4.7
Mack Hollins	BUF	9.5	6.2	15.7
Sterling Shepard	TB	9.4	0.9	10.3
DK Metcalf	SEA	9.2	-0.3	8.9
Jerry Jeudy	CLE	8.9	8.5	17.4
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	8.8	10.8	19.6
Dontayvion Wicks	GB	8.6	0.3	8.9
Tee Higgins	CIN	8.4	-4.1	4.3
Tre Tucker	LV	8.4	-5.7	2.7
Deebo Samuel	SF	8.3	-2.8	5.5
Keenan Allen	CHI	8.2	-2.2	6.0
Kevin Austin Jr	NO	8	-6.5	1.5
Andrei Iosivas	CIN	7.7	0.4	8.1

Adam Thielen (CAR, 19.7 Expected Points)

You don’t have to look too far down the list to find Adam Thielen’s name. The veteran receiver had the ninth-most expected points of any receiver in Week 14’s loss to the Eagles and has seen a healthy target share since returning to the Panthers’ lineup in Week 12.

Here’s where Thielen ranks among receivers over the last three weeks in a few key areas:

• 25 targets — 8th
• 258 receiving yards — 8th
• 21.7 percent target share — 26th
• 3 end zone targets — 2nd
• 17.3 PPR points/gm — 16th
• 2.54 YPRR — 20th
• 0.245 TPRR — 30th
• 21 first read targets — 11th

There’s a lot working in Thielen’s favor as of late, and that’s without mentioning he’s facing a Cowboys defense that’s allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game (37.3) to opposing receivers in their last five games.

Far from the player he once was, Thielen remains a target hog in a Panthers offense that’s short on receiver talent. If he stays healthy the rest of the way, he could wind up being on a lot of championship fantasy rosters a few weeks from now. This week, he profiles as a solid top-24 option who could sneak in a WR1 week if a few things break his way.

Tre Tucker (LV, 8.4 Expected Points)

This play is exclusively for desperate managers in deeper fantasy leagues, but I can’t help but feel compelled to mention it, given the recent struggles of the Falcons’ secondary.

Fresh off allowing five touchdown passes and elite performances to Justin Jefferson (7-132-2) and Jordan Addison (8-133-3), the Falcons’ secondary has struggled to slow anybody as of late.

Admittedly, Tre Tucker is in a much different class than Jefferson/Addison, but the Falcons have allowed the eighth most passing yards per game (229.1) this season and have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game (122.4) to receivers when targeted out wide. The 13 touchdowns they’ve allowed when targeted out wide are the most of any team in the league, and the 129.6 passer rating they’ve allowed on said targets is also the highest of any defense in the league.

That’s the Falcons; now for Tucker.

Over the last two weeks, the Raiders have kept wide receiver routes to a minimum. While Tucker and Jakobi Meyers continue to run a high volume of routes, the Raiders’ WR3 and WR4 have combined to run just 26 routes. Tucker saw only one target in Week 13’s loss to the Raiders, but he did take it for a 58-yard touchdown. Tucker has seen five or more targets in three of his last five games and went for 7-82-0 on eight targets against the Broncos.

Those in in deep leagues desperate for help at WR4/WR5 could do worse than an explosive dart throw like Tucker against the Falcons’ porous secondary.

Tight Ends

Week 14 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
Trey McBride	ARI	26.4	-12.4	14.0
David Njoku	CLE	20.9	-3.7	17.2
Michael Mayer	LV	15.5	-1.7	13.8
Sam LaPorta	DET	12.3	-1.9	10.4
Tucker Kraft	GB	11.1	2	13.1
Kyle Pitts	ATL	10.5	-8.1	2.4
Travis Kelce	KC	10.3	-0.8	9.5
Daniel Bellinger	NYG	10.1	-0.6	9.5
Tyler Conklin	NYJ	9.6	-3.3	6.3
Brock Bowers	LV	8.8	-0.6	8.2
George Kittle	SF	8.7	12.4	21.1
Noah Gray	KC	8.5	-1.9	6.6
Juwan Johnson	NO	8.3	6.7	15.0
Jake Ferguson	DAL	7.7	-1.5	6.2
Noah Fant	SEA	7.6	-2.8	4.8
TJ Hockenson	MIN	7.2	1.3	8.5
Jonnu Smith	MIA	7.1	6.3	13.4
Cade Otton	TB	6.8	3.2	10.0
Grant Calcaterra	PHI	6.6	4	10.6
Evan Engram	JAC	6.5	0.8	7.3
Nick Vannett	TEN	6.1	-4.7	1.4
Pat Freiermuth	PIT	5.9	7.9	13.8
Chigoziem Okonkwo	TEN	5.8	-2	3.8
Mike Gesicki	CIN	5.8	-0.4	5.4

Tyler Conklin (NYJ, 9.6 Expected Points)

From Weeks 9-11, Tyler Conklin caught just 3-of-6 targets for 12 scoreless yards. In his last two games, the veteran tight end has caught 7-of-10 targets for 64 yards and now gets a Week 15 matchup against a Jaguars defense that’s allowed the 12th most targets per game (7.8) and the 11th most PPR points per game (14.4) to opposing tight ends in their last five weeks.

Despite his limited targets, Conklin’s 153 routes run since Week 9 are still tied for 11th most amongst tight ends over that span, while his 50.3 percent slot rate ranks 12th. The matchup is favorable, and we’ve seen Conklin provide viable fantasy weeks before. During the first eight weeks of the season, he turned in four double-digit PPR performances.

If you’re lacking that elite option in Week 15, Conklin could do just enough to move you through to the next round of the fantasy playoffs.

NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.