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Week 15 DFS DraftKings Milly Maker Breakdown

Berry's Saturday SNF double-header Love/Hate
Matthew Berry is bullish on James Cook as a fantasy contributor for Saturday's Peacock double-header. Diontae Johnson? Not so much.

The dynamic game of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) requires much more than simply knowing the sport for which we’re entering contests to be successful. We must be adaptable, precise, and open to learning from previous endeavors, the latter of which will be the primary focus of this weekly written piece. Game Theoretic methodologies will allow us to analyze and dissect the previous week’s winner of the largest and most prestigious Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournament on DraftKings – the Millionaire Maker. These same tenets of Game Theory, which can most simply be explained as the development of decision-making processes given our own skill and knowledge, assumptions of the field based on the cumulative skill and knowledge of others playing the same game, and the rules and structure of the game itself, will allow us to further train our minds to see beyond the antiquated techniques of roster building being employed by a large portion of the field. Approaching improvement through these methods will give us insight into the anatomy of successful rosters and will help us develop repeatably profitable habit patterns for the coming weeks. We’ll start by looking at the previous week’s winning roster, extract any pertinent lessons for future utilization, and finish with a look ahead towards the coming main slate.

Winning Roster

Week 15 2023 DK Milly Winner

Week 15 2023 DK Milly Winner

Sign up to stream the NFL Holiday Exclusive between the Buffalo Bills and the Los Angeles Chargers, only on Peacock, Saturday, Dec. 23 at 7:30 p.m. ET. Visit PeacockTV.com/NFL for more details.

Lessons Learned

Building Rosters in Ways the Field Isn’t Matters

There are three roster-building techniques present on this roster that theoretical generate +EV situations. The first is the QB-RB primary stack. This technique is utilized by such a small portion of the field that it doesn’t take a massive hit rate to generate expected value. Suffice to say, its hit rate over the previous five seasons is greater than its utilization rate by the field. The second is utilizing three value wide receivers, which I loosely define as players priced at $5,000 and below. The field has transitioned to a higher degree of emphasis on the wide receiver position, which does make sense considering the state of the running back position in today’s game. That said, the lower number of wide receivers priced up on this slate gave theoretical credence to paying down at the position as fewer players had to “fail” to make the technique viable. This is also utilized at an extremely low frequency by the field. And finally, three-back builds have decreased in popularity beyond the point of equilibrium (the rate at which the technique hits now outweighs its utilization rate by the field). Running backs are still capable of hitting for GPP-worthy scores but the path to elite-level production has changed of late. The clearest path to GPP-worthy scores at running back in today’s game is 100 yards on the ground and multiple touchdowns. That said, there are backs that carry enough pass game usage to offset the need for multiple touchdowns, but 100 yards on the ground is a near must. You’ll notice that two backs on the winning roster did just that while the third, Rachaad White, did not. An additional 11 yards on the ground would have bolstered White’s score to 26.0 points, enough to be considered GPP-worthy at his salary (the seven DK points through the air would offset the requirement to score multiple touchdowns).

Ownership Can Be Just a Number

The winning roster included two of the top three players in raw ownership. That said, they were built into a roster that negated any concerns regarding ownership via the previously mentioned theoretical roster-building techniques. In other words, and to reinforce something that I build my work around in the realm of theoretics, it is much more important how you play chalk rather than who you play.

Looking Ahead

Evan Engram + Mike Evans

Both the Buccaneers and Jaguars present pass-funnel matchups in Week 16. Trevor Lawrence suffered a concussion in Week 15 and has yet to practice this week (as of Wednesday), meaning he is still experiencing headaches (which is the first step of the concussion protocol). That places his status for Week 16 in doubt. So, while Calvin Ridley has a theoretically positive matchup on the perimeter, the presence of C.J. Beathard under center increases the likelihood of Evan Engram operating as the top pass-catcher in the absence of Christian Kirk (injured reserve) and Zay Jones (week-to-week, hamstring). After consecutive games where the pass matchup was likeliest to funnel production to the short-to-intermediate middle of the field, the Buccaneers now get an opponent that is most susceptible to perimeter production, leaving Mike Evans as a high upside correlation play.

Joe Flacco + Amari Cooper + David Njoku

Flacco has attempted 44 or more passes in all three starts with Cleveland this season, feeding 44 of a total 89 targets (49.4 percent) to Cooper and Njoku during the previous two games (the two games where Cooper was healthy). Flacco has tossed multiple touchdowns in all three starts and has surpassed 300 yards through the air in consecutive games, making this stack a rare occurrence where we can capture bulk upside without sacrificing floor.

Breece Hall

Hall had three consecutive games with eight or more targets before the clunker against the Dolphins last week. The team will also have a full week to prepare backup quarterback Brett Rypien to start against a Commanders defense that has allowed top five running back finishes in each of the previous five weeks. Hall can be rostered at a low $6,100 salary in Week 16.

Chuba Hubbard

Hubbard has seen recent opportunity counts (carries plus targets) of 25, 25, and 24 over the previous three games and now gets the hyper-prevent Joe Barry defense in Week 16. More importantly, that elite volume came in various game environments including two tightly contested games and a blowout loss. Hubbard brings a bankable workload expectation in a good matchup, all wrapped up in a low $5,700 salary.