We had another solid week since we changed the formula for our weekly projections, hitting on six of the top 10 defenses, with all five of our top five defenses finishing inside the top 10. With so many quarterback injuries, we’ve been able to really take advantage of good matchups against back-up quarterbacks, but it’s important to remember that all back-ups are not created equal.
Case in point: Jake Browning and Joe Flacco.
Many thought this Bengals offense would flounder with Browning under center, and it didn’t look good early. However, Browning was a former top recruit with a strong pedigree and showed a good deal of skill on Monday night against the Jaguars. While he may not produce like that every week, we know now he has that ability and need to adjust. Meanwhile, Flacco no longer possesses any eye-popping ability, but he’s a great example of how a smart, veteran quarterback can be bad news for a fantasy defense. Flacco made quick and decisive reads on Sunday, didn’t take any sacks until the final drive of the game, and generally lifted the overall performance of the Browns offense by simply not making dumb mistakes. That’s a major step up from P.J. Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Sometimes that ball security and boring offense can be enough to make a defense a far less attractive play.
As always, the key is to be malleable and not stuck in our ways/opinions. Don’t “set it and forget it” with a defense just because it’s easy. Look at how the matchups are changing and where we can find edges to take advantage of.
BOD Formula and Philosophy
Just a quick reminder of the BOD formula:
(Pressure Rate) + (Knockdowns) + (%Drives ending in a Turnover x2)
Minus
(% Drives ending in a Score) + (Explosive Plays Allowed Per Game x2)
It’s important to clarify that the BOD rankings ARE NOT to be treated as weekly rankings. BOD is meant to tell us who the best fantasy defenses are, but depending on the matchup, they might be ranked differently in a given week. That’s why we have this column where I will be breaking down my rankings for each week and an explanation of why I have the defenses ranked the way I do. The rankings will take into account their BOD ranking, opponent, injuries, weather, etc., but I hope my explanation will help make sense of each ranking.
Special shoutout to Arjun Menon, who calculates the explosive plays per game formula. You can check him out on Twitter here.
Season-Long Accuracy
Throughout the season I’ll keep track of how many top 10 defenses we correctly predicted. I know it’s not quite marking down if I nailed the number one defense each week or the number two, but it’s the most logical way I can think of to keep track of how often a defense I predicted would be a good play actually wound up being a good play. I know we always want the top defense, but I think, more often than not, if we get one of the ten performing defenses of the week, we’re not mad at the result.
SEASON RECORD FOR TOP 10 PREDICTIONS: 68-of-130 (52.3%)
So how do things stack up for Week 14?
Few defenses have benefited from a cushy schedule in the way Miami has lately with their last three games coming against the Raiders, Jets, and Commanders. They’ve averaged 15 fantasy points per game over those games and now they get another plus matchup in a Titans offense that remains below average with Will Levis at quarterback, giving up the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month. The Titans also claim Derrick Henry did not suffer a concussion on Sunday, but he did leave the game without returning, so his status does bear some watching this week. The Dolphins lead the NFL in knockdowns per game and pressure rate and are seventh in opponents’ scoring rate, so they should have another solid day on Sunday.
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This Thursday night game is bound to be ugly, but that can be useful for us for fantasy football defense purposes. The Steelers are coming off a major let down game against the Cardinals and will start Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback, but they are also on the edge of the playoff hunt and need this win over the Patriots to make those chances feel more realistic. The Patriots have been an abysmal offense this season and didn’t get much better with Bailey Zappe under center. Now, they will also likely be without Rhamondre Stevenson, who sprained his ankle on Sunday. That’s a tough task against a Steelers defense that ranks fifth in turnover rate, 10th in pressure rate, and 11th in knockdowns, which is sacks plus quarterback hits. The Patriots have given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month, so this feels like a smash spot.
This is an interesting tier where we get a lot of defenses that have great matchups but would normally not be in our top ten.
You may not think of the Texans as a solid fantasy defense, but they’ve put up eight or more points in three straight games, which places them right in the middle of the pack over that span. On the season, they’re 14th in pressure rate, 15th in turnover rate, and 16th in opponent’s scoring rate, so they’re a slightly above average defense that gets a showdown with a Jets offense that will likely be led by Trevor Siemian or Zach Wilson. Regardless of who starts, it has been bad for the Jets offense as they give up the most fantasy points to opposing fantasy defenses. I think that’s enough for the Texans to be a top five play this week.
The Saints have kind of let us down lately, averaging just 4.6 fantasy points over the last six weeks. On the season, they rank ninth in turnover rate and 10th in opponent’s scoring rate but 23rd in explosive play rate allowed and 29th in pressure rate. However, this week they get a Panthers team that has nothing explosive about it. The Panthers have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game over the last month at 11.25 and have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing offenses on the season. The Panthers haven’t gained 300 total yards of offense since Week 5, so I don’t expect them to challenge a Saints team that still has an outside shot at the playoffs if they can finish the season strong.
The 49ers just absolutely manhandled the Eagles, but it’s important to note that their defense put up just four fantasy points. Over the last month, the Eagles have allowed 4.3 fantasy points to opposing defenses, which makes them the seventh-toughest matchup, but the Seahawks have allowed just 4.5 fantasy points to opposing defenses, which ranks them eighth. That means this is almost an identical matchup based on recent production to one the 49ers scored four points in. Geno Smith looked much healthier last week against the Cowboys, and Kenneth Walker could be back this week, so even if we want to say the Seahawks aren’t really on the same level as the Eagles, they do turn the ball over less, so this should be a tough test for San Francisco. I certainly don’t fault you for wanting to play them and just take whatever you get, but I don’t see this as a high ceiling play. SUNDAY UPDATE: At this point, it seems like Drew Lock is going to start for the Seahawks. I know that Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet are both back, but starting Lock against this 49ers defense is a recipe for disaster. If Geno Smith does start then I would move the 49ers down a bit, but you might not know that in time to make the change, which is risky.
We know we like to attack the Jets offense, but, on the other hand, the Jets are now going to face a Texans offense that just lost impact rookie receiver Tank Dell for the season. That’s going to be a big blow for Houston, who already ranked middle of the pack as a matchup, allowing the 17th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. This Jets defense still ranks third in pressure rate, eighth in knockdowns per game, and 12th in opponent’s scoring rate, so it’s not going to be easy for Houston to put up points. The Jets’ poor offense continues to put the defense in bad situations, so this is more of a floor play than a play that gives us an attractive ceiling. SUNDAY UPDATE: This game is going to be played in the middle of thunderstorms. That’s going to hurt a Texans passing attack that’s already without Tank Dell, so I moved the Jets up a few spots.
The Jaguars had another subpar defensive game on Monday night, putting up just three fantasy points against the Bengals. They’re averaging just 5.2 fantasy points per game over the last two months, so why do I have them this high? Well, the Browns offense has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month and could be without Amari Cooper, who suffered a concussion on Sunday. The Browns have also not committed to Joe Flacco and may put Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center, which would make their offense more prone to sacks and mistakes. This ranking will change if Cooper plays or if Flacco starts, but the Jaguars are fifth in the NFL in opponent’s scoring rate and sixth in the NFL in turnover rate, so this could be a low-scoring affair where the Jags capitalize on a short-handed Browns offense. SUNDAY UPDATE: Joe Flacco is going to start for Cleveland and Amari Cooper is going to play, so I moved the Jaguars down a little bit since the Jags are also going to be missing three cornerbacks.
The Browns defense didn’t step up against the Rams, but it’s important to note that the Rams, with Kyren Williams healthy, are an incredibly tough matchup. Sunday was also the first game ever where Myles Garrett played and didn’t make a tackle, so it’s clear that the Browns star is not healthy. However, given the nature of his injury, I think another week or rest and rehab should help, and the Browns should also get Denzel Ward back for Sunday. With Trevor Lawrence also suffering an ankle sprain and Christian Kirk suffering a groin injury, this could wind up being a solid spot for the Browns. As of now, I’m expecting Lawrence to play because he was not in a boot after the game, and the reports were that it was a low ankle sprain. Yet, even with Lawrence healthy, the Jaguars offense has allowed the 16th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month, so they’re a bang average matchup against a solid defense that could be healthier in Week 14. SUNDAY UPDATE: It seems that Trevor Lawrence will play on a banged up ankle. While that’s certainly better than C.J. Beathard starting for the Jaguars, this mobility should be limited which could be good news for the Browns pass rush, especially with Christian Kirk out for the Jaguars. However, Denzel Ward will NOT return for Cleveland, which certainly hurts that secondary.
It’s unclear what the Giants offense is going to look like coming out of the bye with the possibility that Tyrod Taylor will start under center instead of Tommy “Cutlets” DeVito, who has won his last two starts. What we do know is that this Giants offense lacks healthy playmakers and the offensive line has been a problem all season, which is why the Giants give up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month. Considering the Packers rank ninth in pressure rate and have averaged 7.7 fantasy points per game over the last two months, I think they have a shot to be in the backfield often on Sunday and put up a 9-12 point day.
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The Vikings defense drives me insane. Just when I buy in, they put up a dud and then when I’m critical of them, they have a huge day. Overall, they rank third in explosive play rate allowed, 13th in turnover rate, 15th in pressure rate, and 17th in opponents’ scoring rate, so they’re a fairly average defense in a matchup against a Raiders offense that has given up the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month. I think they can sneak into the top 10, but I have to admit that I don’t really love ranking them this high and I think that says a lot about the back-half of the top 10 this week.
The Colts have been almost an improbably good defense over the last four games, scoring at least 11 points in each game and often because of defensive or special teams’ touchdowns. Given that those are often hard to rely on, the Colts defense feels primed for a letdown in the weeks ahead, and it could come as early as this week given the way Jake Browning looked on Monday night. The Bengals proved that there’s still enough talent on that offense to prevent the Colts from being a slam dunk play; however, this Indianapolis defense ranks fifth in knockdowns per game and 10th in turnover rate, so they can make the big plays that will lead to some fantasy goodness and sneak them into the top 10.
The Ravens are another good defense in a mediocre spot. The Rams have been one of the 10 worst matchups for fantasy defenses with Kyren Williams playing. In fact, over the last month, the Rams allow the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses. Even though Cooper Kupp is not 100%, this is not a good matchup given that the Rams allow the fourth-fewest sacks and have the sixth-best turnover rate in the NFL. The Ravens have prevented points and don’t give up big plays, so their floor is always pretty solid, but the matchup and the Ravens’ inconsistent ability to force turnovers has me questioning the ceiling of this play this week. SUNDAY UPDATE: I’ve moved both the Ravens and Rams up because this game figures to be a wet, sloppy mess. But here is the the thing: both teams feature good running games, so both teams will likely lean heavily on the ground game. That could make this game lowering scoring, and there could be a fumble or two, but run-heavy games tend to be faster games which means fewer plays overall and fewer passing plays. That means fewer sack opportunities for defenses and fewer chances for turnovers, etc. That means these defenses are better plays than if it was a dry day, but I don’t think it’s necessarily a MUST START spot.
Justin Jefferson is set to return for the Vikings this week, but who will be throwing him the ball? The Vikings didn’t commit to Josh Dobbs, so we might see Nick Mullens or Jaren Hall. At this point, it’s hard to know exactly where to rank the Raiders defense until we know who is under center for Minnesota, but we have to expect the Vikings offense to pick things up a bit with Jefferson back, so this isn’t necessarily the plus matchup it’s been recently. SUNDAY UPDATE: The Vikings announced that Josh Dobbs will start. Given how rough he looked last week, that does provide some upside for the Raiders.
The Falcons did what we needed them to do against the Jets in Week 13 and are now averaging 8.4 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. The Bucs had previously been a tough matchup for fantasy defenses, but they’ve been trending down of late, allowing the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month. Over those four games, they’ve failed to score over 21 points (despite playing the Titans and Panthers), turned the ball over six times, and allowed 14 sacks. Now, the Falcons don’t have a great pass rush, but they’re 14th in explosive play rate allowed and 15th in opponent’s scoring rate, so they should keep this one low scoring and a turnover or two gives them a chance to be a solid streamer start.
Over the last six weeks, the Broncos defense ranks sixth with 9.7 fantasy points per game, while the Chargers have been a middle-of-the-pack offense, giving up the 15th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. The issue is that the Broncos defense has buttered their bread with turnovers, ranking third in the NFL in turnover rate, while the Chargers’ offense is ninth-best in the NFL in turnover rate. If the Chargers aren’t going to commit turnovers then the Broncos defense doesn’t have a great pass rush, which means their ceiling in this game is pretty low.
We talked about the Steelers above, but we need to talk about the Patriots going up against Mitchell Trubisky, who did go 11-for-17 for 117 yards and a touchdown against the Cardinals. Arizona’s defense put up just six fantasy points, but over the last two months, the Patriots defense has been about three points per game better than the Cardinals, so it’s safe to expect a slightly better performance, but I don’t believe this is a smash spot because I don’t love the New England defense. They rank 20th in pressure rate and 29th in turnover rate, but they’re sixth in explosive play rate allowed and ninth in opponent’s scoring rate, so they should keep this game low-scoring, but I don’t think they have the talent to put up a big score.
The Cowboys defense averages just three points per game in the six games where they’ve played an offense that is not a top-10 matchup for fantasy purposes. The Eagles may turn the ball over, but they are certainly not a plus matchup for fantasy defenses, which means that the Cowboys are hard to trust this week.
The Bills and Chiefs are two top 10 defenses based on my season-long BOD formula, but they’re also two defenses that have been slipping of late due to injuries. Over the last six weeks, the Bills average 7.2 fantasy points per game, while the Chiefs average 6.6, but over the last month, the Bills are the fifth-worst matchup for fantasy defenses, while the Chiefs are the sixth-worst, so even though these two typically explosive offenses that have been fraught with flaws this year, they’re not plus matchups for fantasy. This is a huge game for both teams, and I expect a tough battle with both Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen showing up to make plays. The talent on these defenses is enough that you could maybe play them in deeper formats, but I don’t love it and I’d be looking elsewhere. UPDATED: I’ve moved the Bills up a couple spots with the news that RB Isiah Pacheco and OT Donovan Smith won’t play for the Chiefs on Sunday.
I don’t feel comfortable starting any of these defenses in any format.
As I mentioned above, I will update and repost this article on Sunday morning in case there are any changes with injuries or weather reports, etc. Until then, good luck to all this week!
