Week 14 Expected Points: Can Nick Westbrook-Ikhine be a bye week hero?

Week 14 Byes: BAL, DEN, HOU, IND, NE, WSH

Hello, and welcome to my Week 14 Expected Points article.

For those who may be new here and are curious about expected points, you should know that expected points come from the previous week’s games and are not projections. Expected points (EP) apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where a player is on the field when they receive said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected fantasy points based on what they did with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected (FPOE).

Expected points are a usage stat that can help us identify players to target in the coming weeks, which I attempt to do every week in this article.

In addition to the handful of players I write up, I provide the highest EP totals from the previous week for:

• 50 running backs
• 50 wide receivers
• 24 tight ends

With plenty of potential gems to target in Week 14, here are some guys who caught my eye.

Running Backs

Week 13 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
Bijan Robinson	ATL	24.3	1.2	25.5
Bucky Irving	TB	21	6.5	27.5
Josh Jacobs	GB	20.8	0.9	21.7
De’Von Achane	MIA	20.3	0.7	21.0
Alvin Kamara	NO	20.1	-4.2	15.9
Joe Mixon	HOU	18.5	3.4	21.9
Jonathan Taylor	IND	17.9	-0.6	17.3
David Montgomery	DET	17.2	-1.8	15.4
Najee Harris	PIT	17.1	7.8	24.9
Rico Dowdle	DAL	16.7	4.6	21.3
Kenneth Walker III	SEA	16.6	-10	6.6
Chase Brown	CIN	15.8	3.2	19.0
James Conner	ARI	14.1	-3	11.1
Saquon Barkley	PHI	14	5.7	19.7
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	13.8	-1.4	12.4
Brian Robinson Jr	WAS	13.6	4.3	17.9
Derrick Henry	BAL	12.8	1.3	14.1
Jaleel McLaughlin	DEN	12.4	-3	9.4
Tony Pollard	TEN	11.7	-0.9	10.8
Tyrone Tracy Jr	NYG	11.6	2.9	14.5
Aaron Jones	MIN	11.2	0.6	11.8
Travis Etienne	JAC	10.4	-1.6	8.8
Jonathon Brooks	CAR	10.3	-3.2	7.1
Kyren Williams	LAR	10.2	8.1	18.3
Ameer Abdullah	LV	9.8	-2.5	7.3
Rachaad White	TB	9.6	-0.8	8.8
Justice Hill	BAL	9.6	-3.5	6.1
Javonte Williams	DEN	9.4	-2	7.4
James Cook	BUF	9.1	9.9	19.0
Breece Hall	NYJ	9.1	-1.1	8.0
Nick Chubb	CLE	8.8	3.7	12.5
Jaylen Warren	PIT	8.7	1.7	10.4
Raheem Mostert	MIA	8.6	-3.2	5.4
Sincere McCormick	LV	8.4	0.1	8.5
Ray Davis	BUF	7.8	5.9	13.7
D’Andre Swift	CHI	7.8	1.6	9.4
Christian McCaffrey	SF	7.5	1.2	8.7
Chris Rodriguez Jr	WAS	7.3	8.1	15.4
Isaiah Davis	NYJ	6.4	5.8	12.2
Jordan Mason	SF	6.3	1.5	7.8
Braelon Allen	NYJ	6.2	-1.5	4.7
Zach Charbonnet	SEA	6.1	6	12.1
Jerome Ford	CLE	5.9	1.3	7.2
Cordarrelle Patterson	PIT	5.8	2.5	8.3
Isiah Pacheco	KC	4.8	1.1	5.9
Antonio Gibson	NE	4.4	7.8	12.2
Isaac Guerendo	SF	3.8	4.8	8.6
Chris Brooks	GB	3.7	1.2	4.9
Michael Burton	DEN	3.2	2.9	6.1
Kene Nwangwu	NYJ	0.2	5.8	6.0

Sincere McCormick (LV, 8.4 Expected Points)

For as much as I hate the Raiders’ backfield, I’m now on my second straight week of touting one as a streaming option. Last week it was Ameer Abdullah who followed up his Week 12 performance (17.5 PPR points) against the Broncos with a 7.3 performance in last week’s loss to the Chiefs.

In that loss, third-year back Sincere McCormick posted a career-high in carries (12) and rushing yards (64), while also adding two catches for another yard. Head coach Antonio Pierce said after the game that McCormick will “keep getting opportunities,” setting the stage for a potentially busy day in Week 14 against the Buccaneers.

Zamir White (quad) didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday, and Alexander Mattison (ankle) has been limited all week, but the team knows what they have in Mattison, who’s unlikely to be on the roster after this season. The Raiders would be better suited to play guys like McCormick, who may offer them some upside that extends beyond this season.

As I mentioned in this week’s Backfield Report, McCormick has been solid with his limited work over the last two weeks. On 17 carries, he’s averaging 5.7 YPC, as a respectable 3.35 YCO/ATT, and has forced a missed tackle on 23.5 percent of his carries. He gets a favorable matchup against a Buccaneers’ defense that’s allowed the 15th most PPR points per game to RBs (22.2) over the last five weeks and has allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate (6.3 percent) per FantasyPoints.com.

With guys like Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, and Joe Mixon all on bye, McCormick could have some upside as a boom-or-bust RB2 if the volume is there again in Week 14.

Braelon Allen (NYJ, 6.2 Expected Points)

There are probably more cases against Braelon Allen than there are for him heading into Week 14’s game against the Dolphins. With that said, the “for” case starts and ends with the potential volume he could see if Breece Hall (knee) is ruled out. Hall has missed the Jets’ first two practices of the week, and with little to play for at this point in the year, the Jets may shelve their star running back for at least a week or longer.

Allen’s 67 rush attempts on the year are second to Hall and well ahead of the five carries RB3 Isaiah Davis has. Allen has also caught 12-of-17 passes for 97 yards and a touchdown. Allen has been short on efficiency this season. If his 3.6 YPC isn’t underwhelming enough for you, his 4.3 yards per touch ranks ties with Devin Singletary, Kyren Williams, and Jaleel McLaughlin for 47th amongst 65 running backs (min. 50 touches). Like Williams, it could be pure volume that makes Allen a top-24 fantasy running back in Week 14 if Hall sits.

Wide Receivers

Week 13 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
Drake London	ATL	27.3	-10	17.3
DJ Moore	CHI	27.1	-3.4	23.7
Elijah Moore	CLE	24.1	-4.9	19.2
Parker Washington	JAC	22.2	2.1	24.3
Jerry Jeudy	CLE	21.3	19.2	40.5
Malik Nabers	NYG	20.3	-5	15.3
Tee Higgins	CIN	20.2	-2.3	17.9
Mike Evans	TB	20.1	5.7	25.8
Ladd McConkey	LAC	19.6	1.1	20.7
Garrett Wilson	NYJ	19.6	-10.5	9.1
Davante Adams	NYJ	19.2	-1.6	17.6
Marvin Harrison Jr	ARI	18.4	-1.4	17.0
Nico Collins	HOU	18.3	1.6	19.9
Jakobi Meyers	LV	17.7	-2	15.7
Ja’Marr Chase	CIN	17.5	3.1	20.6
DK Metcalf	SEA	17.4	-6.8	10.6
Brian Thomas Jr	JAC	16.8	1.9	18.7
Adam Thielen	CAR	16.4	7.5	23.9
DeAndre Hopkins	KC	15.9	-2.9	13.0
Justin Jefferson	MIN	15.2	1.7	16.9
Tyreek Hill	MIA	14.8	5.5	20.3
Puka Nacua	LAR	14.8	2.5	17.3
Jameson Williams	DET	14.4	-4.8	9.6
Terry McLaurin	WAS	14.3	13	27.3
Xavier Legette	CAR	14.2	-4.9	9.3
Courtland Sutton	DEN	13.8	2.4	16.2
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	TEN	13.7	7.4	21.1
Brandin Cooks	DAL	13.7	-3.1	10.6
Keenan Allen	CHI	13.6	10.7	24.3
Jayden Reed	GB	12.5	7.2	19.7
Amon-Ra St Brown	DET	11.8	0.5	12.3
Xavier Worthy	KC	11.6	-1.2	10.4
Michael Pittman Jr	IND	11.5	-2.3	9.2
Michael Wilson	ARI	11.2	-0.7	10.5
Alec Pierce	IND	10.6	-1	9.6
Zay Flowers	BAL	10.5	-0.4	10.1
Kayshon Boutte	NE	10.4	-1.3	9.1
Jordan Addison	MIN	10.2	-0.8	9.4
Ray-Ray McCloud	ATL	10.1	3.2	13.3
KaVontae Turpin	DAL	9.9	-0.4	9.5
George Pickens	PIT	9.2	7.2	16.4
AJ Brown	PHI	9.1	2.5	11.6
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	8.6	3.3	11.9
Andrei Iosivas	CIN	7.9	4.6	12.5
Jaylen Waddle	MIA	7.6	3.7	11.3
Demarcus Robinson	LAR	6.3	6.6	12.9
Marvin Mims Jr	DEN	6.2	13.7	19.9
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	NO	4.5	7.1	11.6
Calvin Austin III	PIT	3.4	7.5	10.9
Tre Tucker	LV	2.1	11.8	13.9

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN, 13.7 Expected Points)

The Jaguars are one of the premier pass funnel defenses in the league, as our own Denny Carter pointed out in this week’s Funnel Defense Report. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine pushed his touchdown total on the season to eight on the season in last week’s loss to the Commanders when he caught 3-of-8 targets for 61 yards and two scores.

Westbrook-Ikhine’s eight targets tied a career-high and were more than he’s seen in any other game this season. It was also one more than the seven Calvin Ridley saw.

Will Levis doesn’t have much of a future as an NFL starter, but we have to enjoy him while we’ve got him. The erratic gunslinger ranks seventh amongst quarterbacks (min. 100 dropbacks) in deep throw rate (13.8 percent), and his 9.0 ADOT is good for ninth-highest in the league. You may also be surprised to know that his 75 percent adjusted completion percentage ranks higher than the likes of Justin Herbert, Bo Nix, Matthew Stafford, Josh Allen, and C.J. Stroud — to name a few.

Westbrook-Ikhine has seen five or more targets in four of his last five games. The volume should be there against the Jags. If Levis can put a few more targets in his hands, it could spell a big day for the explosive playmaker.

Jordan Addison (MIN, 10.2 Expected Points)

It’s been a rough season for Jordan Addison. His elite touchdown production (10) in 2023 has fallen off in a big way, as he’s on pace for just 6.8 touchdowns this season, and he’s averaging fewer targets per game this year (5.7) than he did in 2023 (6.4).

Addison topped 50 receiving yards just twice in his first seven games of the season but has had 54 or more yards in each of his last three games, which includes an 8-162-1 outing in Week 12 against the Bears. He’s averaging 7.7 targets/gm over that short stretch and now gets a Falcons defense that’s allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game (39.9) to opposing receivers since Week 8.

This season, the Vikings have the third-highest pass rate over expected and could find themselves in a high-scoring affair against former teammate Kirk Cousins and the Falcons. Ranked by RotoPat as a fringe WR3/WR4 on the week, Addison could turn in another solid week in what is a plus matchup on paper.

Tight Ends

Week 13 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
David Njoku	CLE	32	-5.8	26.2
Brock Bowers	LV	23.3	6.9	30.2
Travis Kelce	KC	22.3	-8.5	13.8
Jonnu Smith	MIA	21.3	0	21.3
Trey McBride	ARI	20.1	1.5	21.6
Hunter Henry	NE	18.3	-3.8	14.5
Evan Engram	JAC	14.9	-3.8	11.1
Sam LaPorta	DET	13.8	1.8	15.6
Cade Otton	TB	13	-7	6
Taysom Hill	NO	12.6	-2.9	9.7
Isaiah Likely	BAL	12.3	2.5	14.8
Tommy Tremble	CAR	11.8	0.9	12.7
Pat Freiermuth	PIT	11.6	7.2	18.8
Zach Ertz	WAS	11.5	1	12.5
Dalton Schultz	HOU	10.9	6.2	17.1
Noah Gray	KC	10.5	-0.7	9.8
Mark Andrews	BAL	10.4	8.5	18.9
Tucker Kraft	GB	10	3.8	13.8
Luke Schoonmaker	DAL	9.1	-0.8	8.3
Juwan Johnson	NO	8.7	-0.1	8.6
Mike Gesicki	CIN	7.7	2.6	10.3
Dallas Goedert	PHI	7.6	4.9	12.5
Theo Johnson	NYG	7.5	2.9	10.4
Austin Hooper	NE	7.3	6.9	14.2
Johnny Mundt	MIN	5.4	4.8	10.2

Pat Freiermuth (PIT, 11.6 Expected Points)

In Week 12 against the Browns, Pat Freiermuth caught all four of his targets for 59 yards. Since Week 8, the Browns have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game (23.4) to opposing tight ends, although it’s worth noting they were on the receiving end of Taysom Hill’s 43.7-point outburst in Week 11.

Still, in a week where Mark Andrews and reliable streamers like Hunter Henry and Zach Ertz are on bye, Freiermuth makes for a nice pivot against a team he played well against just weeks ago. Freiermuth’s target volume has been disappointing this season. From Weeks 5-11, he saw three or fewer targets per game, but in his last two weeks, he’s averaged 5.5 targets/gm and has a 0.196 TPRR.

If Freiermuth isn’t your cup of tea, you can always take a shot on a Will Dissly bounce back after he saw just one target on 20 routes. Prior to last week’s disaster, Dissly had caught four or more passes in each of his last three games and his 0.23 TPRR since Week 6 ranks 12th amongst TEs (min. 30 targets).