Week 13 Expected Points: Luke Schoonmaker gets another chance to shine

Week 13 Byes: NONE

Hello, and welcome to my Week 13 Expected Points article.

For those who may be new here and are curious about expected points, you should know that expected points come from the previous week’s games and are not projections. Expected points (EP) apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where a player is on the field when they receive said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected fantasy points based on what they did with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected (FPOE).

Expected points are a usage stat that can help us identify players to target in the coming weeks, which I attempt to do every week in this article.

In addition to the handful of players I write up, I provide the highest EP totals from the previous week for:

• 50 running backs
• 50 wide receivers
• 24 tight ends

With plenty of potential gems to target in Week 13, here are some guys who caught my eye.

Running Backs

Week 12 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
Josh Jacobs	GB	26.2	2.4	28.6
Aaron Jones	MIN	25	-3.1	21.9
Chuba Hubbard	CAR	24.7	-9.7	15.0
Saquon Barkley	PHI	21	25.2	46.2
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	19.3	5.6	24.9
Tony Pollard	TEN	18.8	3.1	21.9
Nick Chubb	CLE	17.9	1.1	19.0
Kareem Hunt	KC	17.6	-5.9	11.7
Joe Mixon	HOU	16.8	-7.3	9.5
Kenneth Walker III	SEA	16.3	-3	13.3
Bucky Irving	TB	15.9	11.2	27.1
Ameer Abdullah	LV	15.1	2.4	17.5
Jaylen Warren	PIT	14	1.4	15.4
Rico Dowdle	DAL	13.7	-0.9	12.8
Kyren Williams	LAR	12.2	1	13.2
Christian McCaffrey	SF	11.8	-2	9.8
Derrick Henry	BAL	11.8	2.2	14.0
D’Andre Swift	CHI	11.6	-2.1	9.5
De’Von Achane	MIA	11.5	9.1	20.6
Tyrone Tracy Jr	NYG	11	0	11
Rachaad White	TB	10.5	1.2	11.7
Javonte Williams	DEN	10	-7.6	2.4
James Conner	ARI	9.9	0	9.9
Najee Harris	PIT	9.6	-2.2	7.4
JK Dobbins	LAC	9.2	-0.3	8.9
David Montgomery	DET	9	7.3	16.3
Sean Tucker	TB	9	-1	8
Gus Edwards	LAC	8.6	-1.5	7.1
Jonathan Taylor	IND	7.8	-4.3	3.5
Austin Ekeler	WAS	7.7	-3.3	4.4
Devin Singletary	NYG	7	2	9
Zach Charbonnet	SEA	7	-4.8	2.2
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	6.4	-5.1	1.3
Roschon Johnson	CHI	6.4	1.8	8.2
Antonio Gibson	NE	6.3	-0.8	5.5
Justice Hill	BAL	5.8	8.4	14.2
Brian Robinson Jr	WAS	5.2	-1.8	3.4
Jaleel McLaughlin	DEN	4.9	-0.5	4.4
Jaylen Wright	MIA	4.9	-2.1	2.8
Jordan Mason	SF	4.3	-2	2.3
Emanuel Wilson	GB	4.2	-0.1	4.1
Carson Steele	KC	3.5	-1.2	2.3
Samaje Perine	KC	3.5	0.9	4.4
Jerome Ford	CLE	3.4	0.3	3.7
Chris Brooks	GB	3.3	0.3	3.6
Eric Gray	NYG	3.1	-0.5	2.6
Raheem Mostert	MIA	2.9	-1.7	1.2
Cam Akers	MIN	2.8	0.7	3.5
JaMycal Hasty	NE	2.7	0.8	3.5
Kenneth Gainwell	PHI	2.6	5.6	8.2

Ameer Abdullah (LV, 15.1 Expected Points)

I hate this Raiders backfield, but if you’re in a pinch, Ameer Abdullah could be of service. We’ll want to see what Alexander Mattison’s (ankle) status is before making any concrete decisions, but if Mattison and Zamir White (quad) both miss Friday’s game, Abdullah could reprise the role we saw him play in Week 12.

With both backs out in last week’s game against the Broncos, Abdullah stepped up to lead the backfield with 13 total touches, 65 yards from scrimmage, and a touchdown. As I mentioned in my backfield report on Wednesday, Abdullah largely benefitted from his work in the passing game. His 43 routes run led all running backs in Week 12, while his six targets tied for the most in the week.

Abdullah’s 17.5 fantasy points in PPR leagues was good for an RB9 finish on the week, but his receiving production alone netted him 14.7 points, which would have been good for RB13. Mattison has been limited in both practices this week, but if he doesn’t suit up, Abdullah makes for a solid RB3 dart throw against the Chiefs.

Gus Edwards (LAC, 8.6 Expected Points)

Playing in a split backfield with J.K. Dobbins has been tough on Gus Edwards. The veteran running back is averaging just 4.0 fantasy points per game in PPR league and didn’t score his first touchdown until last week’s loss against the Ravens.

This week, however, Edwards should step into a lead role for the Chargers with Dobbins (knee) already ruled out for Week 13. Touchdowns were the one thing that gave Edwards fantasy value in 2023. Without them, he’s lacked fantasy upside and, in many ways, has been abysmal this season.

Edwards has rushed for 63-206-1 on the year. His 3.3 YPC is a career-low. He’s also forced a missed tackle on just 6.3 percent of his rush attempts. Amongst 54 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts this season, only Ezekiel Elliott has a lower MTF rate (5.2 percent).

In a normal situation, we’d be doing a full fade of Edwards, but he feels like a near lock for double-digit rush attempts, and the Falcons’ run defense ranks 14th in rush yards allowed per game (127.2) and has allowed the 15th highest YPC (4.4). Edwards is still a touchdown-dependent back, but his chances at finding the end zone will see a significant boost with Dobbins sidelined. He profiles as a low-end RB3 and is the RB33 in RotoPat’s weekly rankings, but if you’re feeling strapped at the position, Edwards has the upside of a top-24 back should he manage to find the end zone.

Wide Receivers

Week 12 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
Keenan Allen	CHI	24.5	-0.9	23.6
Jakobi Meyers	LV	24.3	-2.2	22.1
Puka Nacua	LAR	21.7	-1	20.7
David Moore	CAR	20.1	0	20.1
CeeDee Lamb	DAL	19.5	-2.7	16.8
Courtland Sutton	DEN	18.2	11.5	29.7
Cooper Kupp	LAR	17.5	2.5	20.0
Jordan Addison	MIN	17.3	12.9	30.2
Jaylen Waddle	MIA	16.3	12.1	28.4
Noah Brown	WAS	16.1	-3	13.1
Rome Odunze	CHI	15.5	-6.6	8.9
Nico Collins	HOU	15.4	4.8	20.2
DJ Moore	CHI	15.2	11.7	26.9
Malik Nabers	NYG	14.2	-1.8	12.4
Devaughn Vele	DEN	14	0	14
Zay Flowers	BAL	13.7	-2.5	11.2
Josh Palmer	LAC	13.3	-6.5	6.8
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	12.6	7.1	19.7
Michael Pittman Jr	IND	12.5	3.1	15.6
Tyreek Hill	MIA	12.5	-2.7	9.8
AJ Brown	PHI	12.3	10.6	22.9
Sterling Shepard	TB	12.1	-5.5	6.6
Amon-Ra St Brown	DET	11.9	0.3	12.2
Tre Tucker	LV	11.9	3.3	15.2
DeAndre Hopkins	KC	11.6	2.9	14.5
Jameson Williams	DET	11.5	0.3	11.8
Jauan Jennings	SF	11.3	-2.3	9.0
Josh Downs	IND	11.2	-5.5	5.7
Tyler Boyd	TEN	11	0.5	11.5
George Pickens	PIT	10.9	-2.1	8.8
Demario Douglas	NE	10.8	0.5	11.3
Xavier Worthy	KC	10.4	-1.3	9.1
Calvin Ridley	TEN	10.3	4	14.3
Jerry Jeudy	CLE	10.2	4.3	14.5
Mike Evans	TB	10.2	1.6	11.8
Ladd McConkey	LAC	9.7	4.6	14.3
Terry McLaurin	WAS	9.5	11.7	21.2
Romeo Doubs	GB	9.4	-1	8.4
Marvin Mims Jr	DEN	9.1	-1.9	7.2
Marvin Harrison Jr	ARI	8.8	-1.1	7.7
Wan’Dale Robinson	NYG	8.4	1.3	9.7
Xavier Legette	CAR	8.4	1.2	9.6
Michael Wilson	ARI	8.2	-0.8	7.4
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	TEN	8.2	4.6	12.8
Elijah Moore	CLE	8.1	-3	5.1
Quentin Johnston	LAC	8.1	-8.1	0.0
Tank Dell	HOU	7.9	2.3	10.2
Jalen Tolbert	DAL	7.4	2.8	10.2
DK Metcalf	SEA	7.3	2.6	9.9
Justin Jefferson	MIN	7.1	-2.4	4.7

Josh Palmer (LAC, 13.3 Expected Points)

Fantasy managers may be surprised to know that Josh Palmer led all Chargers receivers in expected points in last week’s loss to the Ravens. While he only managed three receptions for 38 yards, Palmers’ eight targets led all Chargers players, and his 38 routes run were second only to Ladd McConkey (44).

Palmer ran a combined 37 routes in Weeks 9 and 10 but has run a combined 73 routes in his last two games.

There’s also a chance he benefit’s from the donut Quentin Johnston posted in Week 12’s loss. Johnston earned five targets against the Ravens but failed to haul in a single pass. Pro Focus credited him with three drops, only adding to the brutal outing.

The Chargers are averaging 24.3 dropbacks per game in 11 personnel and are throwing at a 54 percent rate in neutral game scripts. Both rank outside the top 15 in the league but are a far cry from the numbers we saw during offensive coordinator Greg Roman’s days in Baltimore with Lamar Jackson. Since Week 7, the Falcons have allowed the most fantasy points per game (40.8) to opposing receivers, further adding to the intrigue of Palmer as a deep flier where needed.

Demario Douglas (NEP, 10.8 Expected Points)

This isn’t the first time Demario Douglas has found his way into the expected points article, but he continues to be a solid streaming option for fantasy managers. Douglas’ splits with Drake Maye as a starter have been solid from a volume perspective. Here’s a look at those numbers, courtesy of the RotoViz Game Splits app. The “In Split” column is the eight games Douglas has played with Maye.

Douglas has only one top-24 week on his ledger since Maye took over in Week 6, but he has four double-digit PPR performances in seven games. His 66.5 expected points since Week 6 rank 27th amongst all receivers, outpacing names like Tyreek Hill, Terry McLaurin, Jordan Addison, Darnell Mooney, and DeAndre Hopkins — to name a few.

Playing out of the slot at an 80.7 percent rate, Douglas’ role is pretty clearly defined at this point. This season, the Colts are allowing 8.3 targets per game to the slot. 6.5 receptions and 69.9 receiving yards. It’s the kind of weekly production that Douglas’ fantasy managers would welcome, and it’s why I like him as a deeper play in Week 13.

Tight Ends

Week 12 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
Trey McBride	ARI	24	1.3	25.3
Jonnu Smith	MIA	23.6	0.1	23.7
Cole Kmet	CHI	17.2	-3.8	13.4
Brock Bowers	LV	17	-9.2	7.8
TJ Hockenson	MIN	13.1	5.3	18.4
Zach Ertz	WAS	13	2.8	15.8
David Njoku	CLE	12.1	-8.2	3.9
Sam LaPorta	DET	12.1	-7.2	4.9
Travis Kelce	KC	12	0.2	12.2
George Kittle	SF	11.8	8.4	20.2
Hunter Henry	NE	11.7	-2.3	9.4
Dallas Goedert	PHI	10.4	-4.5	5.9
Mark Andrews	BAL	8.6	7	15.6
Noah Gray	KC	8	14.6	22.6
Luke Schoonmaker	DAL	7.9	6.6	14.5
Austin Hooper	NE	7.4	8.5	15.9
Cade Stover	HOU	7.4	4.2	11.6
AJ Barner	SEA	7.3	-2.4	4.9
Theo Johnson	NYG	6.6	0.3	6.9
Tucker Kraft	GB	6.6	4	10.6
Will Dissly	LAC	6.4	2.3	8.7
Jordan Akins	CLE	5.8	1	6.8
Pat Freiermuth	PIT	5.5	4.4	9.9
Cade Otton	TB	4.7	-0.7	4.0
Ja’Tavion Sanders	CAR	4.5	3.4	7.9

Luke Schoonmaker (DAL, 7.9 Expected Points)

Still only rostered in just 17 percent of Sleeper leagues, Cowboys tight end Luke Schoonmaker may once again be a top tight end in fantasy this week. In the three games Jake Ferguson (concussion) either left early or did not play in, Schoonmaker has caught 15-of-20 targets for 154 yards and a touchdown. He’s had a top-12 fantasy week in each of those games.

Per FantasyPoints Data, he earned a 14.6 percent target share in those games, which is just a click below the 15.2 percent target share Ferguson has earned this season.

Schoonmaker cashed in on a 22-yard receiving touchdown in last week’s win over the Commanders but was limited to just four targets on the day. On paper, the matchup is tough. The Cowboys have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends (6.5) over the last five weeks, but at a position so thin, there’s an easy case to be made for Schoonmaker having TE1 upside.