Week 12 Expected Points: Quentin Johnston hopes to stay hot vs. Ravens

Week 12 Byes: ATL, BUF, CIN, NO, NYJ, JAC

Hello, and welcome to my Week 12 Expected Points article.

For those who may be new here and are curious about expected points, you should know that expected points come from the previous week’s games and are not projections. Expected points (EP) apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where a player is on the field when they receive said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected fantasy points based on what they did with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected (FPOE).

Expected points are a usage stat that can help us identify players to target in the coming weeks, which I attempt to do every week in this article.

In addition to the handful of players I write up, I provide the highest EP totals from the previous week for:

• 50 running backs
• 50 wide receivers
• 24 tight ends

With plenty of potential gems to target in Week 12, here are some guys who caught my eye.

Running Backs

Week 11 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
Joe Mixon	HOU	27.9	7.4	35.3
Chase Brown	CIN	26.3	-7	19.3
Jonathan Taylor	IND	20.4	-13.4	7.0
Saquon Barkley	PHI	18.9	14.9	33.8
Breece Hall	NYJ	18.7	12.4	31.1
De’Von Achane	MIA	17.9	2.6	20.5
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	17.9	-5	12.9
Josh Jacobs	GB	17.8	5.6	23.4
Christian McCaffrey	SF	17.3	-2.7	14.6
Alvin Kamara	NO	16.7	-3.8	12.9
Najee Harris	PIT	16.4	-3.1	13.3
David Montgomery	DET	15.3	9.2	24.5
James Cook	BUF	14.9	4.8	19.7
Kenneth Walker III	SEA	14	-0.1	13.9
Austin Ekeler	WAS	13.5	4.1	17.6
Aaron Jones	MIN	11.9	-6.6	5.3
Bijan Robinson	ATL	11.9	-1.6	10.3
Javonte Williams	DEN	11.8	6.9	18.7
Rico Dowdle	DAL	11.6	-6.2	5.4
Brian Robinson Jr	WAS	11.5	2.7	14.2
Kareem Hunt	KC	11.4	-5.4	6.0
Tony Pollard	TEN	11.3	-6.4	4.9
Roschon Johnson	CHI	11.1	0	11.1
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	10.9	8.4	19.3
D’Andre Swift	CHI	10.4	6	16.4
Derrick Henry	BAL	10.3	2.2	12.5
Justice Hill	BAL	10.3	-2.2	8.1
Cam Akers	MIN	10.2	1.4	11.6
Jaylen Warren	PIT	9.9	0.9	10.8
Travis Etienne	JAC	9.9	-3.6	6.3
JK Dobbins	LAC	9.1	9.8	18.9
Alexander Mattison	LV	8.2	1.7	9.9
Jerome Ford	CLE	7.7	0.2	7.9
Kyren Williams	LAR	7.3	1.3	8.6
Samaje Perine	KC	7.2	-4.4	2.8
Audric Estime	DEN	7	-1.5	5.5
Hassan Haskins	LAC	6	-5.9	0.1
Tyjae Spears	TEN	6	-3.2	2.8
Nick Chubb	CLE	5.7	-0.7	5.0
Ameer Abdullah	LV	5.4	5.3	10.7
Blake Corum	LAR	4.6	-0.8	3.8
Deuce Vaughn	DAL	4.6	-1.9	2.7
Zach Charbonnet	SEA	4.6	-2.1	2.5
Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	4.4	1	5.4
Raheem Mostert	MIA	4.4	-4.6	-0.2
Jaylen Wright	MIA	4	-2.4	1.6
Ty Johnson	BUF	4	-2.2	1.8
Jase McClellan	ATL	3.8	-2.3	1.5
Kenneth Gainwell	PHI	3.8	2.1	5.9
Antonio Gibson	NE	3.3	-0.3	3.0

Roschon Johnson (CHI, 11.1 Expected Points)

In the Bears’ first game under offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, the team gave Roschon Johnson a 42 percent snap share to D’Andre Swift’s 58 percent snap share. I was the most split the backfield has been in any game for the Bears this season. Below is a look at the team’s weekly running back snap share courtesy of RotoViz.

It’s only a one week sample, but with six teams on bye, there are limited backfields to pull from if you’re in need of a flier.

Johnson’s usage, if sustainable, could make for a solid fantasy floor on a week-to-week basis. Johnson’s 11.1 expected points ranked 23rd amongst all running backs last week. Johnson ran for only 33 yards on 10 carries last week but did punch in a one-yard score in the defeat. It was the fifth rushing touchdown of the season for Johnson, with all five coming from one yard out. Since Week 3, when Johnson took his first snaps of the season, he and Swift have both handled seven carries inside the five-yard line, but Johnson has seen five carries to Swift’s free when the team’s a yard away from paydirt.

Johnson is giving big 2023 Gus Edwards vibes. Edwards, as you may remember, punched in 13 scores last season while averaging 11.6 carries/gm and 47.6 rushing yards per game. His touchdown dependency made him a risky bet on a week-to-week basis, but he did post eight top-24 fantasy finishes in PPR leagues that season.

The Bears get a challenging Week 12 game against the Vikings, but if Johnson’s increased role proves sustainable, he could be a solid RB3 on the week.

Cam Akers (MIN, 10.2 Expected Points)

Sticking within the same game, Vikings running back Cam Akers has spent the last two weeks solidifying himself as the RB2 behind Aaron Jones. He hasn’t been particularly efficient, rushing 23 times for 63 yards while also catching three passes for 20 yards and a touchdown. In last week’s win over the Titans, Akers surprised with a three-yard receiving touchdown in a situation we would typically expect to see Aaron Jones in.

Jones struggled in last week’s game, rushing for 15-39-0 while playing through a rib injury he suffered in Week 10. Like Johnson, Akers is a thin play in a week that has six teams on bye. He doesn’t quite have the touchdown upside of Johnson, but double-digit touches in back-to-back weeks at least opens the door for a chance at solid fantasy production.

Wide Receivers

Week 11 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
Ja’Marr Chase	CIN	25	1.5	26.5
Tee Higgins	CIN	25	4.8	29.8
CeeDee Lamb	DAL	19.7	-1.1	18.6
George Pickens	PIT	19.6	-2.7	16.9
Jauan Jennings	SF	19.2	5.9	25.1
Amon-Ra St Brown	DET	18.4	20.3	38.7
Cooper Kupp	LAR	18.4	10.2	28.6
Jerry Jeudy	CLE	17.7	8.5	26.2
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	17.5	4.3	21.8
Khalil Shakir	BUF	17.5	-2.5	15.0
Justin Jefferson	MIN	16.2	-2.1	14.1
Rome Odunze	CHI	15	-2.5	12.5
Puka Nacua	LAR	14.4	10.9	25.3
Tyreek Hill	MIA	14.1	5	19.1
DK Metcalf	SEA	13.9	0.1	14.0
Ladd McConkey	LAC	13.2	5.1	18.3
Jordan Addison	MIN	12.7	2.4	15.1
AJ Brown	PHI	12.5	-1	11.5
Deebo Samuel	SF	12.4	-6.3	6.1
Tank Dell	HOU	12.4	-2.6	9.8
Quentin Johnston	LAC	12.3	0.5	12.8
Courtland Sutton	DEN	12.2	2.6	14.8
Elijah Moore	CLE	12.2	6.4	18.6
Keenan Allen	CHI	12.2	-4.1	8.1
DJ Moore	CHI	12.1	1.6	13.7
Garrett Wilson	NYJ	11.8	-6	5.8
Calvin Ridley	TEN	11.5	-1.7	9.8
Drake London	ATL	11.5	-2.4	9.1
Michael Pittman Jr	IND	11.4	-1.8	9.6
Brian Thomas Jr	JAC	11	2.6	13.6
Davante Adams	NYJ	10.9	2.3	13.2
Curtis Samuel	BUF	10.5	6.3	16.8
Cedric Tillman	CLE	10.2	-2.5	7.7
Nico Collins	HOU	10	-0.6	9.4
Xavier Worthy	KC	10	6.8	16.8
Jameson Williams	DET	9.7	12.9	22.6
Kayshon Boutte	NE	9.7	-2.4	7.3
Zay Flowers	BAL	9.7	2.2	11.9
Ray-Ray McCloud	ATL	9.6	1	10.6
DeVonta Smith	PHI	9.4	-2.5	6.9
Jakobi Meyers	LV	9.4	-0.6	8.8
Kendrick Bourne	NE	9.4	8.6	18.0
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	TEN	9.4	10.3	19.7
Demario Douglas	NE	9.2	0.7	9.9
Devaughn Vele	DEN	8.8	1.8	10.6
Josh Downs	IND	8.4	11	19.4
Odell Beckham Jr	MIA	8.4	-5.1	3.3
Jermaine Burton	CIN	7.7	-5.9	1.8
DeAndre Hopkins	KC	7.6	-1.7	5.9
Rashod Bateman	BAL	7.5	-2.5	5.0

Quentin Johnston (LAC, 12.3 Expected Points)

Quentin Johnston brings a three-game touchdown streak into the Chargers’ Week 12 game against the Ravens. The second-year receiver has six touchdowns on the season and is the current WR10 in fantasy points over expected (31.8) on the year — thanks, in part, to his touchdown production. As far as expected fantasy points go, Johnston is the WR77.

On paper, Johnston, who saw a season-high eight targets in Week 11, gets another juicy matchup this week. The Ravens have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season and the most points over their last five games. You have to respect the consistency.

Taking things a bit deeper, the Ravens are also allowing the most receiving yards per game (304.6), and have allowed the second-most receptions of 20-plus air yards (23) on the year. Opposing offenses have attempted 56 deep passes on them, which is tied with the Texans for the most of any team in the league.

Of the six touchdowns Johnston has scored, three of them came on end zone targets, but he’s seen just five end zone targets in his eight games this season. He’s also scored four touchdowns from 20-plus yards out. While he’s far from a target hog, Johnston has earned five or more targets in five games this season. He should make for a solid streaming option against one of the league’s most porous pass defenses.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN, 9.4 Expected Points)

Since Week 7, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has run 154 routes, trailing only Calvin Ridley (167) in Tennessee’s receiving room. In his last five games, Westbrook-Ikhine is averaging 4.4 targets per game and 49.4 receiving yards per game, while also posting two top-24 weeks in PPR leagues.

Over their last five games, when faced with a neutral game script, the Titans have thrown at a 49 percent rate — tying with the Steelers for the third-lowest rate in the league over that span. However, when trailing by three or more points, their pass rate jumps to 60 percent, and they’ve trailed by at least three points on 178 of their plays since Week 7.

Knowing this, there are a few things working in Westbrook-Ikhine’s favor in Week 12. For starters, they get a tough matchup on the road against a 7-4 Texans team. Where things stand right now, the Titans are also 8.5 point underdogs over at BetMGM Sportsbook. On top of all of this, the Texans have also allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers in their last five games.

There are several key receivers on bye this week. Fantasy managers will be without Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Drake London, and Garrett Wilson — just to name a few. In a week that will be chock full of desperate plays, Westbrook-Ikhine has some upside as a flier in deeper leagues. He’s rostered in just 18 percent of Sleeper leagues and has scored double-digit fantasy points in three of his last four games in full-PPR formats.

Don’t miss episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld Football Show all season long for the latest player news, waiver wire help, start/sit advice, and much more.

Tight Ends

Week 11 Expected Points

Player	Team	EP	FPOE	PPR
Brock Bowers	LV	25.8	5.5	31.3
Jonnu Smith	MIA	17.5	10.6	28.1
Hunter Henry	NE	16.6	-4.3	12.3
Zach Ertz	WAS	15.8	2.9	18.7
Luke Schoonmaker	DAL	15.4	-3.8	11.6
David Njoku	CLE	14.5	4.6	19.1
Noah Gray	KC	13	5.3	18.3
Evan Engram	JAC	11.4	-3.6	7.8
Dalton Schultz	HOU	10.6	-2.3	8.3
Jordan Akins	CLE	9.8	-6.9	2.9
Will Dissly	LAC	9.5	8.5	18.0
Brevyn Spann-Ford	DAL	8.7	-0.5	8.2
Dallas Goedert	PHI	8.7	2.4	11.1
Isaiah Likely	BAL	8.4	3.1	11.5
Dawson Knox	BUF	7.5	0.5	8.0
Darnell Washington	PIT	7.2	-1	6.2
Juwan Johnson	NO	7.1	4.9	12.0
Foster Moreau	NO	6.2	1.8	8.0
Austin Hooper	NE	6.1	1.4	7.5
AJ Barner	SEA	5.7	-2.2	3.5
Michael Mayer	LV	5.7	-4.2	1.5
Chigoziem Okonkwo	TEN	5.5	-1.6	3.9
Cole Kmet	CHI	5.5	1.7	7.2
Tucker Fisk	LAC	5.5	-3.9	1.6
Mo Alie-Cox	IND	TE	5.1	-1.4

Luke Schoonmaker (DAL, 15.4 Expected Points)

This silly game we play often goes best when we don’t overthink things. If you find yourself without a reliable tight end this week, why not pivot to the guy who saw 10 targets the previous week? Oh, by the way, he also plays on a bottom-five defense in the league, and his team is sixth in targets (91) to the tight end position this season.

Luke Schoonmaker took over for Jake Ferguson (concussion) in the Cowboys’ Week 11 loss to the Texans and caught 6-of-10 targets for 56 yards. It’s not the first time Schoonmaker has stepped into a meaningful role for the Cowboys’ offense. In Week 2, when Ferguson missed the game due to a knee injury, Schoonmaker also stepped up to catch all six targets he saw for 43 yards.

In his two games filling in for Ferguson, Schoonmaker has been a top-10 tight end in PPR leagues. This week, he and the Cowboys get a Commanders defense that has allowed 13.0 fantasy points per game to the position in their last five games. In four of their last five games, the Commanders have allowed a tight end to score double-digit points.

Head coach Mike McCarthy said earlier this week that Ferguson would be “hard pressed” to play this week. He was also a DNP in the team’s first two practices. Interestingly, CeeDee Lamb (back/foot) also missed Thursday’s practice after being limited on Wednesday. In a game that should feature plenty of passing for the Cowboys, whose 68 percent pass rate leads the league, Schoonmaker makes for a solid streaming option at a position that often lacks high-end upside outside of the top options.

NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.