The dynamic game of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) requires much more than simply knowing the sport for which we’re entering contests to be successful. We must be adaptable, precise, and open to learning from previous endeavors, the latter of which will be the primary focus of this weekly written piece. Game Theoretic methodologies will allow us to analyze and dissect the previous week’s winner of the largest and most prestigious Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournament on DraftKings – the Millionaire Maker. These same tenets of Game Theory, which can most simply be explained as the development of decision-making processes given our own skill and knowledge, assumptions of the field based on the cumulative skill and knowledge of others playing the same game, and the rules and structure of the game itself, will allow us to further train our minds to see beyond the antiquated techniques of roster building being employed by a large portion of the field. Approaching improvement through these methods will give us insight into the anatomy of successful rosters and will help us develop repeatably profitable habit patterns for the coming weeks. We’ll start by looking at the previous week’s winning roster, extract any pertinent lessons for future utilization, and finish with a look ahead towards the coming main slate.
Winning Roster
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Lessons Learned
What is Leveraged May Never Die
The Week 12 main slate was the lowest-scoring main slate of the season, requiring only 208.76 DK points from user afountain to ship the $555 Millionaire Maker GPP. Even so, the opportunities to generate smart leverage were likely at their peak a week ago. What do I mean by that statement? Let’s examine something I said on The33rdTeam.com prior to the slate.
“We have standard optimal practices in DFS that have been proven through rigorous study, reflection, and data crunching. And that’s the same for any game, and the same for game plan development through game theory. We take what we know, we introduce observations from our competition, we make assumptions that lead to hypotheses, and then we re-evaluate. Leverage enters the discussion in the road from the first step to the second step, when we begin to introduce outside factors such as field tendencies, ownership expectations, and observations. Leverage then becomes easier to understand, defined through the act of deviating from optimal practices to generate a boost to expected value equal to or greater than the loss in expected value from the deviation itself. This is leverage, and it’s made possible through an exploitative stance against field tendencies.
On any given slate, the magnitude of the deviation from optimal will vary and take different forms. Which brings us back to the Week 12 slate. From my observations and study of the chalk on the slate, and how that chalk interacts under the umbrella of the $50,000 salary cap, we can make three primary observations. First, the field seems to be struggling to identify the clear top expected game environment on the slate (made possible via the composite ownership from each game on the slate, with the Bills-Eagles game checking in far behind some more fragile game environments). Second, the field seems to be struggling to identify “projectable value,” or players priced below $5,000 that carry solid point-per-dollar median projections. This is important for how we can expect the field to construct rosters. Finally, the field seems to be struggling to identify the top on-paper plays at the running back position.”
And now compare that theoretical discussion to the call for action I proposed at OneWeekSeason.com leading up to the slate.
“Kevin Byard was brought in by the Eagles to erase opposing tight ends, which he largely did against the top tight end in the game in Travis Kelce last week, holding him to just 44 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. With the Bills now utilizing 11-personnel as their base offense in the absence of Dawson Knox, and with the team top-five in PROE against one of the purer pass-funnel defenses in the league, things set up best for the production to flow through the wide receivers. So, the question then becomes, does Josh Allen possess the upside to pass for 300 or more yards and three or more touchdowns in this spot? The answer is unequivocally yes. This game is also likely to be the first game where the Bills are pushed to remain aggressive following the departure of former offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, meaning there might be further untapped upside in this team’s unknown tendencies that we haven’t fully seen without Dorsey and his more cautious approach to handling Josh Allen this season. As we fight through the uncertainty that this slate provides, a focus on team-based upside has the Bills standing head and shoulders above the field. Can Allen pass for 400/5 in this spot? I would say that is within his range of outcomes here as the Bills enter desperation mode while on the outside of the AFC playoff picture looking in.”
Back to the opening statement, where we alleged the slate had the clearest paths of any slate this season to generate leverage smartly. If the deviations from optimal are greater, we theoretically need smaller deviations from optimal to generate more leverage. On the Week 12 slate, we could simply single out the top overall plays and generate leverage due to the struggles from the field. What is leveraged may never die. Okay, that’s a cheesy path to take to explain this concept. In other words, our process in DFS goes as follows. We take what we know, we add in our observations of the field, and we develop a game plan. If the field is making more mistakes, we can stay closer to theoretical optimal and generate leverage at the same time, with the ultimate goal to build the best rosters over time that have the clearest path to first place, because that is all that truly matters in this crazy sport we play.
Looking Ahead
Brock Purdy + Brandon Aiyuk + Deebo Samuel
Yes, there is extreme upside in the elite primary stack of Tua Tagovailoa + Tyreek Hill + Jaylen Waddle. That primary is also likely to be extremely popular. The 49ers present an enigma to the fantasy community. They have scored 30 or more real-world points at such great frequency that their offense carries immense weekly upside in DFS. That said, they are not as concentrated as a team like the Dolphins. All of Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle can theoretically be “the guy” for this offense on a weekly basis. What leads to increased levels of certainty on Aiyuk and Samuel this week are two things – first, the Eagles have an elite rush defense and face the highest pass rate and most pass attempts per game because of it, and second, the Eagles are capable of generating organic pressure without blitzing, increasing the likelihood that Kittle sees his route participation rate take a significant hit. Furthermore, Kevin Byard has been that dude against opposing tight ends since joining the Eagles before Week 7. That leads to an interesting situation for the 49ers. If they still score, but the production is more concentrated than normal, we get the possibility for elite fantasy production from this three-man stack.
Tyreek Hill + Zach Moss + A.T. Perry
Remember that discussion from above about generating leverage smartly? This trio presents another way of doing just that. Tyreek Hill and Zach Moss are not going to go overlooked on this slate. Consider them the top on-paper plays at their respective positions. Furthermore, the low salary of Moss plays extremely well with the high salary of Hill, meaning that pairing is likely to garner extreme combinatorial ownership on this slate. Even so, great on-paper plays. How, then, do we play those two in ways others are not? That’s where Perry comes in, who should be the de facto WR1 for the Saints with Chris Olave battling a concussion, Michael Thomas on injured reserve, and Rashid Shaheed battling a quad injury that New Orleans Saints beat writer Nick Underhill says is likely to keep him out of action in Week 13. Even so, it is more likely that additional ownership lands on Alvin Kamara than it is to trickle down to Perry. The thing about the players priced below $5,000 on DraftKings is that we still need ceiling, which is the piece a lot of the field misses with potential value plays. Salary multiplier means next to nothing with the extremes of player pricing. So, does Perry carry 20-25 DK point ceiling in this spot? That is the question that needs answering before this stack can become viable. More on this in my remaining works throughout the week.