The dynamic game of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) requires much more than simply knowing the sport for which we’re entering contests to be successful. We must be adaptable, precise, and open to learning from previous endeavors, the latter of which will be the primary focus of this weekly written piece. Game Theoretic methodologies will allow us to analyze and dissect the previous week’s winner of the largest and most prestigious Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournament on DraftKings – the Millionaire Maker. These same tenets of Game Theory, which can most simply be explained as the development of decision-making processes given our own skill and knowledge, assumptions of the field based on the cumulative skill and knowledge of others playing the same game, and the rules and structure of the game itself, will allow us to further train our minds to see beyond the antiquated techniques of roster building being employed by a large portion of the field. Approaching improvement through these methods will give us insight into the anatomy of successful rosters and will help us develop repeatably profitable habit patterns for the coming weeks. We’ll start by looking at the previous week’s winning roster, extract any pertinent lessons for future utilization, and finish with a look ahead towards the coming main slate.
Winning Roster
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Lessons Learned
Roster Construction is More Important Than Ownership
You’ll notice there are numerous pieces of DraftKings user jarussell1025’s Millionaire Maker-winning roster that garnered significant ownership on the Week 11 slate. You’ll also notice that three primary pieces allowed them to leap past the field through the high combinatorial ownership present on their roster – Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, and the Cowboys D/ST. Furthermore, Brian Robinson and Devin Singletary both saw inflated ownership numbers at running back but the two were played together at lower frequency due to a high degree of emphasis placed on the mid-range of player pricing at the position by the field. This led to a unique roster construction corps through the elevated ownership numbers.
Sometimes, It’s Better to be Lucky Than Good
I won’t beat around the bush here, jarussell1025’s roster made very little theoretical sense on this slate. Two Buffalo secondary pass-catchers without their quarterback and a naked statuesque quarterback on a concentrated offense are things that will not return success often. On that note, none of that matters where we sit now as jarussell1025 is a fantasy millionaire and my largest score is $30,000, so take these words at face value as an honest critique as we aim to improve as players.
What is lost in that discussion is the reason why we stack, correlate, and utilize other best practices in DFS. They are designed to reduce the variables in an extremely variant game. That does not mean that seemingly random combinations of nine players can’t ever come together to win major GPPs. In fact, optimal rosters are oftentimes riddled with seemingly random plays. But an optimal roster has never been played in the 12-year history of DFS – ever. We don’t need optimal to win these contests, we need to reduce the number of variables while maximizing ceiling. We just don’t have a large enough sample size to continue throwing uncorrelated and unstacked rosters at the wall to see what sticks.
So, yes, jarussell1025 got lucky this week with an uncorrelated and unstacked roster. That is likely to happen again, but it’s that much more difficult to pull off in limited sample sizes. Take, for example, a correlated pivot from Kincaid and Tyreek Hill to George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk, which the respective salaries would have allowed for. That would have returned an additional 10 points on this roster and simultaneously reduced the number of variables at play.
Looking Ahead
Thanksgiving Theoretics Preview
The field is highly likely to start roster construction with Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, and one of the running backs that are not priced for their expected volume. Brian Robinson, AJ Dillon, and Zach Charbonnet are all expected to be vaulted in borderline workhorse roles due to injuries throughout their respective backfields. Aaron Jones and Emanuel Wilson are expected to be out for the Packer, Antonio Gibson has been limited in each practice this week after missing Week 11, and Kenneth Walker appears highly unlikely to play after suffering an oblique injury in Week 11. That’s important because player pricing for the Thanksgiving slate was released prior to all those injuries. Those three running backs are expected to be on almost 90 percent of the rosters in play on Thursday, which funnels roster constructions towards a common build because they are all priced within $600 of each other.
The theoretics behind the situation make unique combinations of running backs outside of those constraints extremely intriguing. For example, McCaffrey plus a Lions running backs (either Jahmyr Gibbs or David Montgomery), two pay-down options at the position, or both Lions backs are all interesting ways to immediately differentiate rosters on this slate. Furthermore, consider team over-stacks on the teams expected to score the most points. Dak double-stacks and triple-stacks, Brock Purdy double and triple-stacks, and Jared Goff double and triple-stacks should keep you away from the chalk roster construction and provide a clearer path to first place!
Main Slate Preview
Michael Pittman + Mike Evans
The Buccaneers and Colts face off as the two teams in the league utilizing the highest rates of Cover-3. Cover-3 defensive alignments typically allow an opposing offense to target their first reads relentlessly, paving the way for Pittman and Evans to push for their season highs in targets. Success by one also theoretically contributes to a higher success rate from the other, leaving this pairing as a high-upside mini-correlation on the Week 12 main slate.
Josh Allen + Stefon Diggs + A.J. Brown
Josh Allen saw three designed quarterback draws in the team’s first game without Ken Dorsey calling offensive plays, which is important because Dorsey had been lauding Allen all season for his growth in diagnosing pressure and checking the ball down, which had served to limit his rushing upside and downfield, “yolo-type” throws we had grown accustomed to seeing from Allen. Remove the handcuffs on the gunslinger and we could start to see a higher hit rate of elite fantasy returns, beyond the consistent production we have already seen this season. Diggs and Brown both underperformed expectations in Week 11 and could come in lower owned than they otherwise would on the Week 12 main slate if people have that hangover bias fresh in their minds. Now add in the desperation effect the Bills are sure to be feeling as they currently reside out of the playoff picture in the AFC and this game could turn into one of the more exciting game environments of the year, all with what could be low ownership on the primary pieces from each offense.
Nico Collins + Cristian Kirk
Nico Collins is the forgotten member of the Houston offense after Tank Dell and Devin Singletary erupted with Dameon Pierce out and Collins missing Week 10 and returning to a reduced role in Week 11. Christian Kirk took a backseat to Calvin Ridley in Week 11 but has severely outperformed the latter this season. Both of these teams have significant biases associated with them heading into the Week 12 slate, something we can look to leverage against from the same game environment.