The dynamic game of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) requires much more than simply knowing the sport for which we’re entering contests to be successful. We must be adaptable, precise, and open to learning from previous endeavors, the latter of which will be the primary focus of this weekly written piece. Game Theoretic methodologies will allow us to analyze and dissect the previous week’s winner of the largest and most prestigious Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournament on DraftKings – the Millionaire Maker. These same tenets of Game Theory, which can most simply be explained as the development of decision-making processes given our own skill and knowledge, assumptions of the field based on the cumulative skill and knowledge of others playing the same game, and the rules and structure of the game itself, will allow us to further train our minds to see beyond the antiquated techniques of roster building being employed by a large portion of the field. Approaching improvement through these methods will give us insight into the anatomy of successful rosters and will help us develop repeatably profitable habit patterns for the coming weeks. We’ll start by looking at the previous week’s winning roster, extract any pertinent lessons for future utilization, and finish with a look ahead towards the coming main slate.
Winning Roster
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Lessons Learned
Primaries
It is no secret that scoring is down, passing production is down, and red zone offense is down in 2024. This means that there are fewer players, teams, and game environments that harbor fantasy production on a weekly basis. In turn, that makes team over-stacks and game environment bets more important as the chances another team or game environment matches the production of one that hits is that much lower due to the state of the league. The Milly Maker-winning lineup featured a tidy Lions over-stack with Jared Goff paired with both Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. Goff and St. Brown put up difference-making scores that you needed to win this week, while the addition of Williams created a situation where DraftKings user crclngthdrn got three roster spots right with one simple bet – the Detroit pass offense succeeds. Keep this in mind as we head down the home stretch of the 2024 season.
Cheapies
The process for selecting cheap players that can become difference makers on a given slate is not as simple as “this player can put up a solid cost-considered score.” The reason Kendrick Bourne stood out like a sore thumb in Week 11 was based in leverage, not simply betting on Bourne to succeed. If Bourne succeeded, he directly took away from the chances that one of the chalkiest wide receivers on the slate succeeded in Kayshon Boutte, allowing you to lap over a third of the field through one simple bet. In other words, we must consider the entire picture when making bets on cheap players and not just betting on that player succeeding. The way I conceptualize the practice of leverage generation is by utilizing a practice commonly found in computer programming and language, the “if-then” statement. It goes something like this: “if Kendrick Bourne succeeds, then it directly takes away from Kayshon Boutte’s upside.” It doesn’t always have to be a direct pivot or even a player on the same team, but thinking through the causal factors behind a chalky piece failing will allow you to clearly generate leverage moving forward.
Taysom, Taysom, Taysom
Once for every touchdown. For the second season in a row, Saints “tight end” Taysom Hill completely wrecked a slate with a three-touchdown performance. But we knew coming into the season that it was likely he would influence a slate or two considering his role in this offense as a do-it-all player. Hill is a unique player that has a legitimate path to throwing, catching, and rushing for a touchdown in the same game. He led the team with 10 targets, 138 rushing yards, and three scores, propelling DraftKings user crclngthdrn to a Milly Maker win in Week 11. This archetype of player, the player that has a role great enough to destroy a slate in any given week, should always garner our interest in MME play.
Looking Ahead
Baker Mayfield + Mike Evans + Cade Otton
Baker Mayfield has returned a 4x salary multiplier in five of 10 games this season, coming close in another. Simplified as much as we can, that leaves Baker with a 66.6% hit rate for a 4x salary multiplier, or a score needed to keep you on a 200-point pace on DraftKings. He gets his alpha wide receiver back from an extended absence in Mike Evans and has a tight end that has averaged almost 10 targets per game over his last four contests, making this a tidy team stack on another slate where there aren’t many teams or game environments that have meaningful upside.
Rome Odunze (or DJ Moore)
I don’t know how much steam Rome Odunze will get this week or how much the field will buy into his new role in the offense following the insertion of Thomas Brown as the interim offensive coordinator, but he is simply too cheap for his role, matchup, and range of outcomes in Week 12. Odunze saw a solid 11.3 aDOT, 53.6% air yards share, 0.33 targets per route run, 32.3% target share, 29.6% first-read target rate, and 0.42 fantasy points per route run in the first game without Shane Waldron calling the offense, all of which handily led the team. The Bears now get a Vikings team forcing the eighth highest opponent pass rate over expectation and the third most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Odunze stands as a solid on-paper play and would become an elite DFS play should he come in below 10% expected ownership. DJ Moore presents an interesting pivot should Odunze garner heavy ownership as he also saw his role altered with the new offensive coordinator, seeing a higher rate of short area targets (silly 0.9 aDOT) to get the ball into his hands and leverage his YAC abilities.
Jauan Jennings
Another player that has seen his role changed significantly is Jauan Jennings, who is now operating in the X-type wide receiver role vacated by the injury to Brandon Aiyuk. All he has done in that role is see 11 targets in each of the two games while in the role, catching 17 passes for 184 yards and a touchdown in the process. I have to think Deebo Samuel is still not completely healthy and tight end George Kittle missed Week 11 with a hamstring injury that is likely to affect his availability in Week 12. The matchup is far from ideal against a stingy Packers secondary, but his range of outcomes far exceeds his modest salary.
