The dynamic game of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) requires much more than simply knowing the sport for which we’re entering contests to be successful. We must be adaptable, precise, and open to learning from previous endeavors, the latter of which will be the primary focus of this weekly written piece. Game Theoretic methodologies will allow us to analyze and dissect the previous week’s winner of the largest and most prestigious Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournament on DraftKings – the Millionaire Maker. These same tenets of Game Theory, which can most simply be explained as the development of decision-making processes given our own skill and knowledge, assumptions of the field based on the cumulative skill and knowledge of others playing the same game, and the rules and structure of the game itself, will allow us to further train our minds to see beyond the antiquated techniques of roster building being employed by a large portion of the field. Approaching improvement through these methods will give us insight into the anatomy of successful rosters and will help us develop repeatably profitable habit patterns for the coming weeks. We’ll start by looking at the previous week’s winning roster, extract any pertinent lessons for future utilization, and finish with a look ahead towards the coming main slate.
Winning Roster
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Lessons Learned
State of the Slate
The Week 10 main slate brought a lower median game total and fewer teams with elevated Vegas implied team totals. That combined with the tight pricing and relative lack of projectable value on each major site to set up a slate in which the score needed to win major GPPs was likely to be reduced.
In Week 10, we saw only three skill position players surpass 25 DK points, and you likely weren’t winning anything if you didn’t have at least two of them on your roster (Bijan Robinson, Calvin Ridley, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling). Furthermore, it was highly unlikely that rosters contained all three considering their respective ownership levels in the Millionaire Maker (Robinson: 16.7%, Ridley: 3.8%, Valdes-Scantling: 1.0%).
But the macro aspect of the expectation of muted scoring present on the slate should have also fundamentally altered how we construct rosters, paying more attention to team over-stacks and varied one-off production behind it. That is exactly the blueprint that DraftKings user giantsquid utilized on their winning roster, with a 49ers team over-stack (quarterback plus two pass-catchers), which made sense as the 49ers entered the slate with the highest Vegas implied team total, and varied one-offs behind it.
Team Pairing Minus Quarterback
One of the most interesting aspects of the winning roster in Week 10 was the presence of a team pairing that did not include their quarterback. On giantsquid’s roster, that came through the utilization of Austin Ekeler plus Noah Brown. The slate didn’t play out such that both players hit a ceiling outcome, but the process of attacking a team environment where scoring is expected without utilizing the team’s quarterback has a proven record of success, and yet, the field does not utilize that practice at a meaningful frequency. This “player block” mentality is a way to get multiple pieces of a roster “right” with one “bet,” effectively saying “we expect this team to succeed, and I can capture bulk production through these two players.”
Looking Ahead
The State of the Week 11 Main Slate
Median game totals are up compared to last week, which means Vegas is currently expecting more points to be scored in Week 11. If more points are scored, it gives players more opportunity to accumulate meaningful GPP scores, which should increase the score needed to win major GPPs. Pricing is still extremely tight, meaning we are extremely unlikely to see scores in the 220+ range, but we are highly likely to see rosters approach 200 points in GPPs this week. As such, correlations and game environment bets become more important while varied one-offs lose theoretical appeal. Like last week, two teams on the Week 11 main slate currently hold Vegas implied team totals north of 28 points (Lions and 49ers), meaning those two teams should be accounted for on most rosters in play this week.
Team Pairing Minus Quarterback
An interesting aspect of those two teams is that they are typically more reserved when it comes to pass volume and aggression, meaning team pairings without the quarterback jump to the top of the viability matrix. Doing things like pairing Christian McCaffrey with a pass-catcher from the 49ers or Jahmyr Gibbs with a pass-catcher from the Lions, without their respective quarterbacks, are likely to be extremely profitable. Other teams that we can attack in this manor include the Dolphins (De’Von Achane plus pass-catcher without Tua Tagovailoa), the Rams (Kyren Williams plus pass-catcher without Matthew Stafford), and the Jets (Breece Hall plus pass-catcher without Aaron Rodgers).
Players Priced Too Low in Week 11
The general lack of projectable value in 2024 means we are forced to find “value” through different means, most notably finding the players that are fundamentally underpriced relative to their roles, projections, and range of outcomes. In Week 11, that includes Christian McCaffrey ($8,300 after ending 2023 at a salary of $9,700), Puka Nacua (14 targets in his only fully healthy game in 2024, priced at $7,300 in Week 11, De’Von Achane ($7,200; his receiving-only production on games with Tua Tagovailoa this season equates to WR10 production and we get 10-12 carries on top of it and can play him at running back), Cedric Tillman ($5,300; Tillman has averaged almost 11 targets per game without Amari Cooper this season), and Courtland Sutton ($5,900; Sutton has averaged 10 targets per game over his last three games and hit a 3x salary multiplier or higher in each game).
