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The dynamic game of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) requires much more than simply knowing the sport for which we’re entering contests to be successful. We must be adaptable, precise, and open to learning from previous endeavors, the latter of which will be the primary focus of this weekly written piece. Game Theoretic methodologies will allow us to analyze and dissect the previous week’s winner of the largest and most prestigious Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournament on DraftKings – the Millionaire Maker. These same tenets of Game Theory, which can most simply be explained as the development of decision-making processes given our own skill and knowledge, assumptions of the field based on the cumulative skill and knowledge of others playing the same game, and the rules and structure of the game itself, will allow us to further train our minds to see beyond the antiquated techniques of roster building being employed by a large portion of the field. Approaching improvement through these methods will give us insight into the anatomy of successful rosters and will help us develop repeatably profitable habit patterns for the coming weeks. We’ll start by looking at the previous week’s winning roster, extract any pertinent lessons for future utilization, and finish with a look ahead towards the coming main slate.
Winning Roster
Lessons Learned
Game Environment Bets
Correlating to a specific game environment simultaneously reduces the number of variables that need to go right and maximizes ceiling should those variables work out in your favor. In this roster, DraftKings user ryanella correlated the Dolphins-Chargers game through quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Austin Ekeler, creating a path to first place by taking the top expected contributors from both offenses.
The final outcome notwithstanding, Hill and Ekeler carried rock-solid ranges of outcomes in their own rights, but they were not likely to provide “can’t win without” scores without their game environment blowing up. In other words, the consistent back-and-forth nature of that game provided the environment for heavy fourth quarter scoring, resulting in massive production from the team stack of Tua and Tyreek.
Compare that scenario to another player with an elite range of outcomes from Week 1 in Justin Jefferson, who was no slouch on his way to 150 yards on nine receptions. That said, the Buccaneers – Vikings game never required outlier-type game management from either head coach, meaning Jefferson and the Vikings were never required to truly open up their offense, something that would have provided the environment for Jefferson to absolutely smash.
The Value of Low Ownership
Even with the game environment bet smashing on this roster, it was likely to fall short without the heavy contributions from Brandon Aiyuk and Kendrick Bourne, each of whom appeared on less than six percent of the rosters in play for Week 1. Furthermore, the combination of those two players was likely rostered at a sub-0.13 percent clip considering the individual ownership levels of 2.2 percent on Bourne and 5.7 percent on Aiyuk.
This means that ryanella reduced the number of teams they were competing against that had that combination of players, effectively removing a large portion of the field in their path to first place.
Looking Ahead
Lamar Jackson / Mark Andrews / Zay Flowers / Ja’Marr Chase
One of the most interesting game environment bets to make in Week 2 is to target the Ravens-Bengals game after both teams put up absolute clunkers their first time out. Lamar Jackson managed just 8.6 DraftKings points while Joe Burrow managed just 3.2 in Week 1, which could mean we gain access to two offenses that were expected to be top-five units entering the season and low combined ownership. Furthermore, Ravens running back JK Dobbins was lost for the season in Week 1 after suffering a torn Achilles, which could force new offensive coordinator Todd Monken to the air at greater frequency moving forward.
Ravens tight end Mark Andrews missed Week 1 with a quadriceps injury and is likely to go overlooked coming off injury, assuming he plays. Rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers made an immediate impact for the Ravens, catching 9-of-10 targets for 78 yards in Week 1. These two pass-catchers should account for a large portion of the aerial production for the Ravens this season.
Finally, Ja’Marr Chase was held to just 39 yards in Week 1, marking only the second occurrence of fewer than 50 yards receiving since his rookie season in 2021. This quartet offers immense ceiling at what should be relatively low combinatorial ownership considering the psychological aspects at play.
Derrick Henry / Josh Jacobs
By now, we’re all fairly familiar with the state of the running back position in today’s NFL game – workhorse backs are a dying breed. That said, there are some interesting psychological aspects likely to suppress the expected ownership on both Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs for Week 2.
First off, Henry was out-snapped by rookie Tyjae Spears, something that is likely to lead to “lower than should be” ownership in this spot, against a Chargers defense that is most susceptible to power rushing attacks. But what is most interesting to me is the fact that Henry saw 18 running back opportunities (15 carries and three targets) on 30 offensive snaps, indicating. Player still extremely involved in his offense. Should he snap rate increase, say against an opponent the Titans can more readily attack on the ground as compared to their Week 1 opponent in the Saints, Henry would carry a clear path to 30 or more opportunities in the right game environment.
Jacobs returned from his holdout to completely dominate the running back usage in Las Vegas, parlaying a healthy 80 percent snap rate into 22 running back opportunities (19 carries and three targets) in Week 1.
The best part about these two is that they are priced in a nebulous range of player pricing for Week 1, which invokes a sense of pricing psychology that typically leads to reduced ownership. In other words, both backs are priced above the value pieces but below the elites, making it far more likely they go overlooked as people begin building their rosters for Week 2.