Week 1 is here, and welcome to my weekly DST rankings! I’ve been running a version of this column for three years now, and it has won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Series the last two years running, so I hope that I can continue to provide you with informative and helpful content. I use my research/articles for my own weekly DST streams and waiver adds, so we’re very truly in this together and I promise to keep pushing myself to ensure the information below is useful.
We’ve spent months during this NFL offseason evaluating and analyzing, but truth be told, we were mostly just guessing. We assumed which teams would be good and who would have what roles on their teams, but now we get to actually see these teams in action. When it comes to defenses that means we get to finally see who has schemes that could generate consistent pressure and which players put in the work over the offseason to take their game to another level. We also get to see which offenses we truly want to attack when choosing our defenses.
What you’ll get below, and get every week, is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will the my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.
Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.
BOD Formula and Philosophy
If you’ve read my earlier articles, including my one in the Rotoworld Fantasy Football Draft Guide that explained my BOD rankings formula, then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics like pressure rate and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents definitely factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of matchup.
Since we’re just in Week 1, we don’t have true BOD rankings because we don’t have any stats to add into our formula. In truth, it will likely take about three weeks for us to have enough information to start to see which DSTs we can trust and which offenses we want to attack. Until then, we want to mitigate risk by relying on defenses that have clear talent advantages, track records of success, or offenses that we know are short-handed.
So how do these defenses rank for Week 1?
The Ravens gave up too many big plays last year. We have to acknowledge that. However, they were fifth in sacks and fourth in turnover rate, and have always played a brand of football that makes them a fantasy-friendly defense. Added to that their Week 1 matchup against a rookie quarterback in CJ Stroud who is throwing to an average group of pass-catchers, led by Nico Collins and Robert Woods , so I can’t see Baltimore being too vulnerable to big plays this weekend. They should make things very difficult for Stroud in his first start.
The Commanders are a defense I believe is being underrated this season. They have an elite defensive front and get a healthy Chase Young back this season. Last year they finished eighth in pressure rate, 10th in sacks, and seventh in the rate of opponents’ drives that ended in a score. They also get to play a Cardinals team that is potentially starting Clayton Thune at quarterback and seems likely to be tanking. I envision us attacking the Cardinals throughout the year, and I also envision Washington being a good unit for us in 2023.
The Eagles were my 2nd-ranked defense this offseason. They looked like they were going to lose one of James Bradberry and Darius Slay but somehow kept both as well as Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham . Then they went out and drafted Nolan Smith and Jalen Carter . This should still be an elite unit, and I am not a Mac Jones believer. I think the Eagles will bring heat on him regularly, and I don’t expect Jones to handle it well.
San Francisco was my number one defense this offseason, but they lead Tier Two here because I don’t love the matchup. The 49ers were a tremendous defense last year and signed Javon Hargrave in the offseason. Hargrave had a career-high 11 sacks last year and could be even better while playing alongside reigning Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa and fellow defensive tackle Arik Armstead . However, as of right now, Bosa is holding out for a new contract and will not be on the field on Sunday, which dings the 49ers a little bit. I also just think Pittsburgh is going to be a better offense than they were last year. Kenny Pickett and George Pickens are improving, the offensive line should be better, and working in Jaylen Warren more will be good for them. You’re not avoiding the 49ers, but I just like the other three options more.
The Jaguars are an up-and-coming defensive unit. Last year, they finished fourth in pressure rate even though they were only 28th in sacks, so I think that kind of pressure will eventually lead to higher sack totals this year. They were also sixth in turnover rate and 14th in the percentage of drives that ended in an opponents’ score, so they have proven to be a well-rounded group, and I like their matchup. Despite the love people in the fantasy community have for Anthony Richardson , the Colts are looking like an offense we want to target. Richardson is a dynamic playmaker, but he has a track record of poor accuracy and will turn the ball over. Without Jonathan Taylor , it’s going to put a lot of pressure on Richardson, and I think Jacksonville will take advantage.
This ranking is under the assumption that Cooper Kupp does not play in Week 1. If he does play, I will most likely bump Seattle down, but the Rams without Kupp are simply not an offense I worry about. Seattle had some strong young defensive pieces last year, like cornerback Tariq Wooten, which helped them finish 10th in turnover rate and 12th in sacks. They gave up too many big plays and points, but i don’t see Matthew Stafford hitting on big plays without Kupp. Seattle also added defensive lineman Dre’Mont Jones, defensive back Julian Love , and drafted the consensus top cornerback in Devon Witherspoon , so this should be a better unit than last year.
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The Cowboys were a top-tier unit last year, then traded for Stephon Gilmore and drafted Mazi Smith to add strength to the interior of their defensive line. They are a turnover-happy defense that should continue to perform well in fantasy football. However, I also trust in Brian Daboll and this Giants offense . I don’t think it’s an elite unit, but I think Daboll can scheme ways to create easy reads for Daniel Jones and get the ball into the hands of his playmakers. I think you’re still playing Dallas’ defense, but this is not a smash spot.
I know the Bears will be a better offense this year with D.J. Moore in town and Justin Fields getting better, but I still think this is an offense that should be turnover-prone. That should bear out against a Packers defense that blitzes a lot and will bring a lot of pressure on Fields. The Packers have always had an above-average fantasy defense, finishing last year seventh in pressure rate and third in turnover rate. This offseason, they added solid pieces to the defensive line with Lukas Van Ness , Colby Wooden , and Karl Brooks , so I think the sack numbers will tick up to match the pressure rate.
I know people love this Denver defense, but I tend to think they’re better in real life at limiting points and yardage and are not a great fantasy defense. last year they finished 23rd in pressure rate and 21st in sacks last year. Being stingy with points and yards is great, but if you’re not getting sacks and turnovers (Broncos finished 20th in turnover rate) then you’re not helping fantasy teams much. Now have to play a whole season without Bradley Chubb . Plus, while the Raiders aren’t likely to be great this season, they have talent on this roster with Davante Adams , Josh Jacobs , and Jakobi Meyers .
This is a talented Saints defense with Cameron Jordan , Demario Davis , Tyrann Mathieu , and Marcus Maye . They also signed defensive tackles Khalen Saunders and Nathan Shepherd and used their first two picks on defensive linemen Brian Bresee and Isaiah Foskey , so I still think this could be a strong unit with a really favorable schedule. However, I think the Titans will not be as fantasy friendly to opposing DSTs as we expect. They will still ride Derrick Henry often and Ryan Tannehill doesn’t turn the ball over often. DeAndre Hopkins also still has come juice left and Treylon Burks should play, so even though I like the Saints this week, I don’t think they have the upside of the Tier Two units.
I like both the Bills and Jets defenses and both teams have had offensive line issues this preseason; however, both teams also have the potential to have dynamic offenses are led by elite quarterbacks. It’s hard to get overly excited about playing either of these units, even though they are both talented.
The Vikings defenses will round out Tier Three and is one of the hardest defenses for me to rank because I don’t really love them as a fantasy unit. However, I do want to capitalize on potentially poor quarterback play on the other side with Baker Mayfield
.
Mayfield flashed for one game with the Rams last year, but he has simply never been an accurate and reliable quarterback. He has some elite receivers to throw to, but I just don’t know how efficient this Bucs offense will be.
Tier Four is a long one, but this early in the season we simply don’t know which defenses we truly want to avoid, so there are a lot of fringe deep league options.
The value of the Chiefs defense often comes thanks to their offense. With opposing teams trying hard to keep up with Patrick Mahomes , the KC defense is able to feast on lots of drop backs and passing opportunities, which leads to sacks and turnovers. Last year, the Chiefs finished eighth in pressure rate and fourth in sacks, which should allow them to be a fringe top-10 play even against a strong Detroit offense that is relying heavily on young players.
The Bengals added some good talent in the draft with edge rusher Myles Murphy , cornerback D.J. Turner, and safety Jordan Battle. That’s good for a team that finished 12th in pressure rate last year, but they were also 29th in sacks, 12th in turnover rate, and 19th in the rate of opponents’ drives that ended in a score. That strikes me as just an average defensive unit for fantasy; however, I’m not sure how good this Browns offense will be and reports in spring have not been glowing.
This Carolina and Atlanta showdown is the opposite of the Bills and Jets one. I don’t trust either of these defenses. However, I also don’t love either offense. Yes, Bijan Robinson is talented and Drake London should take another step forward, but Desmond Ridder doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence; at least to the extent that he’ll avoid turnovers or bad mistakes. Similarly, the Panthers are putting a lot of trust in rookie Bryce Young , and we usually want to target defenses against rookie quarterbacks early on.
The Steelers and Patriots are both defenses I think we’ll use often this season, but I just don’t love either of these matchups. The Bears are also a defense I don’t really like, but I don’t yet know what we’re going to see out of Jordan Love , so I think that keeps Chicago in the conversation.
The Chargers and Dolphins are both defenses that I think are solid, but this should be a shootout, so I don’t love the matchup for either defense. The Chargers defense has underperformed of late given the talent they have, but maybe this is the year they put it together after adding Eric Kendricks to help a linebacker corps previously led by talented young players like Kenneth Murray . Miami also made some eye-catching moves by drafting cornerback Cam Smith , signing safety DeShon Elliott, and trading for Jalen Ramsey . However, Miami ranked 18th in pressure rate and 13th in sacks last season and gets a tough task against Justin Herbert and company.
Tier Four also features the Titans, Raiders, and Cardinals, who are all going up against offenses that I’m not entirely sure about. The Saints won’t have Alvin Kamara , and I’m not yet sure what Derek Carr will look like in New Orleans. I don’t believe Sean Payton has fixed everything in Denver this quickly, and both Jerry Jeudy and Javonte Williams are likely to be less than 100%. I also like Sam Howell and I trust that Eric Bieniemy will put together a solid offense in Washington, but Terry McLaurin is battling turf toe, and I think this offense may take a bit to work out all the kinks.
I would not play any of these defenses this week (even though I do think the Giants will be sneaky this season).
As I mentioned above, I will update and repost this article on Sunday morning in case there are any changes with injuries or weather reports, etc. Until then, good luck to all this week!