The dynamic game of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) requires much more than simply knowing the sport for which we’re entering contests to be successful. We must be adaptable, precise, and open to learning from previous endeavors, the latter of which will be the primary focus of this weekly written piece. Game Theoretic methodologies will allow us to analyze and dissect the previous week’s winner of the largest and most prestigious Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournament on DraftKings – the Millionaire Maker. These same tenets of Game Theory, which can most simply be explained as the development of decision-making processes given our own skill and knowledge, assumptions of the field based on the cumulative skill and knowledge of others playing the same game, and the rules and structure of the game itself, will allow us to further train our minds to see beyond the antiquated techniques of roster building being employed by a large portion of the field. Approaching improvement through these methods will give us insight into the anatomy of successful rosters and will help us develop repeatably profitable habit patterns for the coming weeks. We’ll start by looking at the previous week’s winning roster, extract any pertinent lessons for future utilization, and finish with a look ahead towards the coming main slate.
Winning Roster
Dominate the season with FantasyLife+, which gives you the award-winning tools, rankings and projections to make this fantasy season one for the ages! Use promo code SEASON20 for 20% off at checkout. Click here to get started
Lessons Learned
Chalk Isn’t All Bad
DraftKings user sws42680 utilized two players rostered by more than 20% of the field, typically my threshold to classify a play as chalk. Chalk develops on every slate, and it is typically tied closely to point-per-dollar projections, meaning the plays project well and are being rostered at a high clip because of it. That means we aren’t as concerned with whether to play the chalk or not as we are how to play the chalk. Which leads us into the next lessons learned from Week 1 – the importance of roster construction.
Importance of Roster Construction
Two of the players with the highest projected ownership for Week 1 were Tyreek Hill and Andre Iosivas. But the real lesson comes from the realization that the two were likely to be rostered together for a large chunk of their ownership due to the field’s desire to fit in the top projected raw points getter in Hill without sacrificing median projection throughout the remainder of the roster. That meant we could be certain that a large portion of the field would be looking to the salary extremes when they built their rosters, making balanced rosters like the one that shipped the $100 Milly Maker on DraftKings carry significant leverage. The roster utilized players all priced at $7,000 and below, which was one of the easiest ways to generate leverage on the field in Week 1. But to do that, DraftKings user sws42680 needed to find the players that could post separator scores in that pricing tier. Which leads us into the next lesson learned from Week 2 – separator scores matter immensely.
Separator Scores Matter Immensely
There were three separator scores on this roster – Baker Mayfield, J.K. Dobbins, and the Bears DST. Mayfield finished second on the slate in raw points at quarterback but returned the highest salary multiplier at the position. Dobbins returned a top-three score at running back and did so through the top salary multiplier at the position. The Bears DST finished with the top raw point total at the position. These are scores that would have been difficult to win without. Furthermore, all three were on less than 10% of rosters in play, with Dobbins and the Bears DST both checking in with minuscule ownership. Scores that would be difficult to win without matter much more than median salary multipliers.
Looking Ahead
Cooper Kupp
Cooper Kupp is sure to be highly owned in Week 2 after he erupted for 21 targets and Puka Nacua was sent to injured reserve. But the Rams play a Cardinals team that ranked 31st in points allowed per game in 2023 (26.8) and just ceded 34 points to the Bills in Week 1. The heavy rates of Cover-4/quarters utilization by Jonathan Gannon’s Cardinals defense plays right into Kupp’s skillset at this point in his career after the veteran amassed a hefty 0.56 fantasy points per route run against the primary coverage alignment in 2023, which ranked ninth in the league. Furthermore, I expect Kupp’s average depth of target to increase against the Cardinals considering their low blitz rates and poor pressure rates. Kupp satisfies to lessons learned in that chalk isn’t always bad and separator scores matter immensely.
Jordan Mason
We’ll have to wait on practice reports and the status of Christian McCaffrey on this one, but I currently project CMC to rest another week after what Mason did to a solid Jets front four on Monday Night Football. The bigger point of emphasis here is that Mason saw 100% of the running back opportunities if you remove the three targets for fullback Kyle Juszczyk, who is more of a blocking specialist than a running back. That presents the potential for immense value at a basement salary of just $5,200 on DraftKings. He is likely to be chalky, but it just might not matter. Which brings us back to the first lesson learned – how can we play the chalk differently than the field?
Kyren Williams
Enter Kyren Williams, who is unlikely to be played at a heavy rate with either Kupp or Mason based on salary and game theoretic reasoning. The field doesn’t like to play running backs with a pass-catcher from the same team, particularly if you do so without their quarterback in Matthew Stafford. This simple inclusion simultaneously makes the roster unique while also gaining access to a large portion of the expected touches from the Rams against a poor defense in the Cardinals. One simple move now separates the roster from the other chalk that includes Kupp and Mason. You’re effectively free to do whatever you want with the remainder of the roster through one decision.
Malik Nabers
Nabers might never be priced this low throughout the remainder of his career. Yes, Daniel Jones looked bad. Yes, the offense failed to find the end zone in Week 1. But that just might not matter considering Nabers’ pedigree and a get-right matchup with the porous Commanders secondary on tap. Nabers garnered significant ownership in Week 1, but I can’t see that increasing after the field watched Jones feed Wan’Dale Robinson 12 targets against the Vikings. But Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is a master of disguised pressure, consistently near the top of the league in unique blitz packages. He pressured Jones a whopping 15 times in Week 1. On the other side of that equation are the Commanders after Baker Mayfield was kept clean on a massive 67.6% of his dropbacks.
