What do you get when you combine a truckload of opportunities with no touchdowns?
Diontae Johnson answered this question for us last season when he finished the year ranked seventh in targets (147) but finished as the WR48 in fantasy points per game (10.6) and dead last in fantasy points over expectation (-60.4).
Johnson’s fantasy finish was among the most disappointing we saw last season and nearly rivaled the zero-touchdown output we saw from Cole Kmet (60-612-0) in 2021. Fortunately for Johnson, Kmet, and fantasy managers like ourselves, a wild amount of variance exists within football and this fantasy game we dabble in. A scoreless 2021 didn’t stop Kmet from finding the end zone seven times last season, and Johnson is a prime candidate for a bounce-back in touchdowns this year.
For those who wonder what might have been or what could have happened and how we can leverage these touchdowns (or lack thereof) for our own benefit, look no further.
The fine folks at Pro Football Focus provide us with in-depth expected touchdown totals to help us answer these very questions and use them to our advantage. For those interested in how predictive expected touchdowns can be, FantasyPoints.com’s Scott Barrett touched on the value of them earlier this summer.
Using these expected touchdown totals and our knowledge of high-value touches and team situations as they stand today, let’s look at some running backs who could be among the league’s best scorers in 2023.
NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, Pro-Football-Reference.com, and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.
Brian Robinson, WSH
2022 Totals
Total TDs: 3
Total X-TDs: 5.8
X-TDs Per 17 Games: 8.2
Robinson’s rookie season didn’t start off the way he had hoped. The 2022 third-round pick suffered a gunshot wound to his leg in late August and was sidelined for the first four weeks of the regular season.
Soon after his Week 5 return against the Titans, the Commanders thrust Robinson into the workload most of us anticipated seeing throughout much of the offseason, as he finished the year with 205 rushes for 797 yards and two touchdowns. His 17.1 rush attempts per game put him on pace to finish with the fifth-most rush attempts over a 17-game span (290.7), while the 1,129 yards he was on pace for would have ranked eighth amongst running backs.
Where Robinson struggled to make any noise was down near the goal line. He saw nine carries from inside his opponent’s five-yard line last season but produced just two rushing touchdowns. That’s the bad news. The good news is the volume he saw in this high-value area was among the league’s best.
Robinson was on a 17-game pace to handle 12.8 rush attempts from inside opponents’ five-yard lines, ranking 13th among all backs last season. Even in an offense that’s expected to see changes under Eric Bieniemy, the expectation is Robinson will continue to handle the majority of short-yardage and goal-line touches. Assuming that’s the case, Robinson should see a substantial boost in touchdown production.
Antonio Gibson, WSH
2022 Stats
Total TDs: 5
Total X-TDs: 8.3
X-TDs Per 17 Games: 9.4
Sticking with our Commanders for a moment, I believe a world exists where Robinson and his running mate, Antonio Gibson, can both see scoring increases in 2023.
Yes, Robinson is expected to handle most of the goal-line work, but from a red zone opportunity standpoint, both Gibson and Robinson saw plenty of scoring opportunities in prime real estate.
As previously mentioned, Robinson returned in Week 5. Gibson and Robinson appeared in 11 games together last season, with each back seeing 21 red-zone opportunities in said games. Robinson’s opportunities (12) narrowly edged out Gibson’s (11) in goal-to-go situations. Gibson’s history as a receiver should allow him to draw plenty of targets in this area of the field, which Bieniemy prioritized during his time in Kansas City.
I can’t stop thinking about how Bieniemy utilized Jerick McKinnon in 2022. Operating as the Chiefs’ primary pass-catching back, McKinnon posted career-highs as a receiver, finishing with a line of 56-512-9 on 71 targets — all career-highs. Early reports out of camp suggest Bieniemy is already eyeing more passes (and screens) for his running backs this season.
Of the 71 targets he saw, 17 of McKinnon’s targets came in the red zone, finishing second in red zone targets behind Austin Ekeler (21). While I wouldn’t expect McKinnon, or any running back for that matter, to haul in another nine scores on 17 red-zone targets, McKinnon’s red-zone usage could signal some things we should expect from Gibson in the red zone as Washington’s pass-catching back.
Admittedly, the Chiefs’ backfield has been in a bit of flux over the last two seasons, but it’s interesting to note that Jerick McKinnon has led all Chiefs running backs in red-zone snaps over that span. Last season, McKinnon out-snapped rookie Isiah Pacheco 136-51 in the red zone, with each back playing in all 17 regular season games. McKinnon’s versatility as a playmaker and a pass blocker made him a valuable part of Bieniemy’s offense last season, and the same could be said of Gibson this season.
Gibson graded as PFF’s second-best running back in pass-blocking last season and allowed just one pressure on a career-high 42 pass blocks. It’s possible I’m trying too hard to make Gibson a thing in 2023, but evidence continues to mount for a strong fantasy season.
Rhamondre Stevenson, NE
2022 Stats
Total TDs: 6
X-TDs: 9.3
X-TDs Per 17 Games: 9.3
Assuming Bill Belichick doesn’t go out and sign somebody to vulture meaningful touches from Stevenson, the 9.3 expected touchdowns he had last season may be well below what he could provide in 2023.
Stevenson’s expected totals are promising but could be on the rise if the Patriots are better than last season. While Matt Patricia masqueraded as an offensive coordinator last season, the Patriots struggled to move the ball. They ranked 26th in yards per game, 24th in EPA/play (-0-047), and 25th in offensive success rate at 41.1 percent.
New offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien has one simple task this season: be better than Patricia. It’s not a high bar to clear.
Knowing what we do about the Patriots’ struggles under Patricia, it should come as no surprise to hear that the team also ranked 29th in red zone trips (45) and was just as low in red zone opportunities (pass attempts + rush attempts) with 127. The Patriots performing even at league average in 2023 could result in 10+ trips to the red zone and 30+ plays in that part of the field.
Last season, Stevenson handled 32 percent of the Patriots’ running back opportunities. Now with the Bills, Damien Harris shouldered the second-highest percentage of touches at 21 percent. Harris’ 39 red zone opportunities were far and away the most on the team, while the returning group of Ty Montgomery, Kevin Harris, and Pierre Strong combined for seven red zone opportunities.
We’re just two years removed from Damien Harris rushing for 15 touchdowns, with 11 of those scores coming from inside the 10-yard line. With Harris now gone and Stevenson already serving as the primary back in this part of the field last year, a double-digit touchdown season could very much be on the horizon for New England’s RB1 should the offense take a step forward.
Joe Mixon, CIN
2022 Stats
Total TDs: 9
X-TDs: 13.6
X-TDs Per 17 Games: 16.6
Two full years with Joe Burrow under center have been kind to the Bengals and their offensive weapons. Since 2021, the Bengals have gone 22-11, appeared in a Super Bowl, and finished seventh in points per game in both seasons. Their EPA per play of 0.072 over that same span ranks sixth.
One of the biggest beneficiaries of the Bengals’ offensive success has been Joe Mixon.
Mixon tied for the third-most touchdowns among running backs in 2021 with 16 and ran it back with a nine-touchdown outing in 2022. His 101 red zone opportunities are tied for third-most with Dalvin Cook, and his 66 green zone opportunities (touches occurring inside the opponent’s 10-yard line) are good for tops in the league. When it comes to expected touchdowns, only Austin Ekeler has more X-TDs than Mixon over the last two years. Below is a list of the top 10.
| Player | Team | X-TDs |
| Austin Ekeler | Chargers | 28.7 |
| Joe Mixon | Bengals | 25.6 |
| Jonathan Taylor | Colts | 23.6 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | Free Agent | 21.8 |
| Leonard Fournette | Free Agent | 21.7 |
| Najee Harris | Steelers | 21.7 |
| Jamaal Williams | Saints | 21.3 |
| Dalvin Cook | Free Agent | 21.0 |
| Antonio Gibson | Commanders | 19.5 |
| Josh Jacobs | Raiders | 19.0 |
Mixon’s biggest threat out of the backfield was Samaje Perine, who is now with the Broncos. Even with Perine in the backfield, Mixon has still handled 65 percent of his team’s rushing attempts and 35 percent of the running back opportunities. Veterans Trayveon Williams and Chris Evans will compete with rookie Chase Brown to fill the void left by Perine, but the share of Cincinnati’s backfield touches largely belong to Mixon.
An elite passing attack could suppress Mixon’s touchdown upside. But if he continues to capitalize on the scoring opportunities given to him, he has a chance to be on the high end of running back touchdown totals in 2023.
NOTE: If you enjoyed this article, be sure to check out Part 2: Using Expected Touchdowns to Predict WRs and TEs Who Could Score More in 2023.
