There are NFL offenses every season that clearly underperform based on roster composition and talent and schedule. Those are the factors NFL fans can feel in their bones.
How could this offense, with these players, not have won more games?
There are other, far nerdier ways to evaluate underperforming offenses. This includes examining expected points added (EPA) on early and late downs, passing efficiency, rushing environment, and offensive success rate, defined as a play that gains at least 40 percent of yards required on first down, 60 percent of yards required on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth downs.
Below are three teams that checked a lot of these spreadsheet boxes and didn’t have much to show for it in 2024.
Atlanta Falcons
A mere five teams had more yards than the Falcons. They were 14th in total points, however, thanks largely to Kirk Cousins sputtering to an inglorious end to his predictably disappointing and short-lived Atlanta tenure. The Falcons, in short, marched up and down the field all season while failing to punch the ball into the end zone. They scored a touchdown on just 53 percent of their inside-the-20 possessions, the 11th worst mark of the 2024 season.
Atlanta’s offense posted the NFL’s fourth best success rate last season, and with Michael Penix under center for the final three games, the Falcons led the league in success rate and ranked seventh in EPA per play, slightly better than the Ravens. Atlanta was top ten in early down EPA — a decent measure of whether an offense is on schedule — in Penix’s 2024 starts. It’s a small sample, but it’s all we have to work with as the Falcons head into 2025 with Penix as the caretaker of an offense loaded with talent.
The team aced the success rate test throughout the season because their rushing attack, led by Bijan Robinson, was so effective. Atlanta averaged the seventh most rush yards before contact last season and were stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage at the NFL’s fourth lowest rate. The Falcons were a run-first offense in 2024 and that likely won’t change in 2025. Combine Robinson’s rushing with slightly more efficient QB play from the strong-armed Penix and the Falcons could turn all those yards into more points.
One area of (major) concern for Penix was his inaccuracy on intermediate pass attempts. On throws between 10-20 yards, Penix 4 percent below his expected completion rate, ranking 33rd out of 43 qualifying quarterbacks. He’ll have to clean that up in 2025 if the Falcons are going to make the most out of Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and yes, even Kyle Pitts.
San Francisco 49ers
Plagued by a string of injuries that might be deemed comical if they weren’t so tragic — to the Niners and fantasy managers alike — Kyle Shanahan’s offense ran ice cold from start to finish in 2024.
The spreadsheets continue to be very kind to Brock Purdy, as they were to Jimmy Garoppolo during his time as Shanny’s game manager. Purdy leads all quarterbacks in drop back EPA since the start of the 2023 season; such is the magic of the Shanahan offense.
In 2024, Purdy led a San Francisco offense to the fourth most yards and the 13th most points. The 49ers scored a touchdown on 57 percent of their red zone possessions, down from 70 percent in 2023.
They were top ten in both success rate and EPA but failed miserably on later downs, ranking in the bottom half of the NFL in third and fourth down EPA and success rate (they were seventh in early down EPA, better than Washington and Kansas City, to name two offenses). Their late down failings can be linked directly to the absence of Christian McCaffrey, a human cheat code in converting third and short. The loss of CMC crushed the offense’s machine-like rushing efficiency: The Niners were 12th in rush EPA last season after posting an eye-watering, league-leading rush EPA in 2023 that was somehow higher than the passing EPA of 15 teams. That, for those who do not speak metrics, is absurd.
Purdy ran cold where it counts the most too. His inside-the-ten touchdown pass rate fell from 50 percent in 2023 to 33 percent in 2024, and his overall TD rate went from a gaudy 7 percent in ‘23 to a humble 4.4 percent in ‘24, in line with Will Levis and Drake Maye.
It’s not as if Shanahan’s offense tanked in 2024. His 49ers still moved the ball at one of the highest clips in the NFL, it just didn’t end up with the sort of touchdown production to which we’ve been accustomed. I’d bank on Purdy and the Niners regressing in a good way next season.
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona’s offense was downright good in 2024, a tough reality to accept considering Kyler Murray’s lackluster play and Marvin Harrison, Jr.’s disappointing rookie campaign.
The Cardinals were 12th in total points and total yards, with an early down EPA that ranked seventh, just behind the Super Bowl champion Eagles. Like the Niners, the Cardinals did quite well on first and second down — they posted the league’s eighth best drop back and rushing success rates on early downs — while struggling mightily on third and fourth downs. Their fourth down conversion rate (44 percent) was worse than all but four teams last season.
The Arizona rushing attack, led by Plodding King James Conner, was by far the strength of the offense. Their rushing success rate was just a hair short of the Eagles and a mere three teams — the Lions, Eagles, and Ravens — averaged more rush yards before contact in 2024. Arizona rushing attempts were stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage at the eighth lowest rate in the NFL.
Murray’s metrics demonstrated marked improvement in parts of his game, most prominently his intermediate passing. Murray last season ranked tenth out of 43 qualifying quarterbacks in adjusted yards per attempt on throws between 10-20 yards, a big jump from his 2022 and 2023 numbers. He was 6 percent over his expected completion rate on short passes (0-9 yards) after struggling with short-area throws for much of his NFL career. Murray remains one of the league’s worst deep ball throwers; only Mac Jones had a lower adjusted yards per attempt on passes of more than 20 yards downfield last season.
The Cardinals offense proved to be more efficient than it had in previous years under Murray’s watch. Better chemistry between Murray and Harrison and an offense centered on the rushing attack could deliver a surprisingly productive season in 2025.
