Spotting guys who have overperformed their opportunity and those who have been on the wrong side of what we’ll call variance — because “luck” is so crass — can help us with waiver wire additions, start-sits, and sneaky DFS plays, if you’re into that sort of thing.
That’s my goal with the Regression Files: Pinpointing players seemingly due for regression to the mean, for better or worse.
We’ll start with players who have run cold of late, and who might be due for something of a bounce back in Week 9 and beyond.
Regression Candidates (The Good Kind)
Quarterback
Bryce Young (CAR)
Young, whose career prospects I am not allowed to discuss until he has retired from pro football, is throwing a lot in the red zone and doesn’t have much to show for it. In fact, Carolina has the NFL’s third highest red zone pass rate. Yet Young’s 3.3 percent touchdown rate is 23rd among 30 qualifying QBs. Curious.
Young’s average depth of target and his yards per attempt have seen slight increases since Frank Reich mercifully handed play calling duties to offensive coordinator Thomas Brown. That should, I think, be good for Young’s fantasy prospects going forward. In Week 8 against Houston, we saw a more aggressive, pass-first look from the Panthers, who were 4 percent above their expected pass rate. That’s well above their season-long rate of 1 percent.
Though his drop back success rate and EPA is among the worst in the NFL, Young should have touchdowns coming his way if the Panthers remain pass-heavy inside the 20. No QB, by the bye, is further under his expected fantasy points than Young.
Sam Howell (WAS)
Howell is a regression candidate with important context: Washington’s offense, under offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy, is 7.5 percent above their expected pass rate -- the third highest mark in the NFL through Week 8. The Commanders have been even more pass heavy of late: From Week 5-8, they’re 9 percent above their expected pass rate.
This total abandonment of the run (Our Commanders!) has generated 23 inside-the-ten pass attempts for Howell this season. Only three quarterbacks have more. Howell has managed a touchdown on eight of those 23 throws. It’s not a bad rate, but it’s not a sterling model of efficiency either.
With four touchdowns against the Eagles in Week 8, Howell’s TD numbers certainly began their regression. More passing in the green zone and Howell’s early-season struggles could easily turn into a string of multi-touchdown outings. On a side note, if Howell can keep the Commanders starting gig, could be top two or three in passing yardage. Since Week 4, no QB has thrown for more air yards than Howell. So you have that going for you, which is nice.
Running Back
D’Andre Swift (PHI)
It’s not like Swift has disappointed anyone who drafted him based purely on vibes. He’s fantasy’s fifth highest scoring running back since taking over the Philly backfield in Week 2. He’s third in rushing attempts and second in rushing yards over that glorious little stretch.
Swift has gotten rather unlucky where it counts though. Even with Jalen Hurts tush pushing his way to rushing touchdowns and Kenneth Gainwell seeing inside-the-ten work, Swift is sixth among running backs with 15 carries in the green zone. That’s resulted in a meager two touchdowns. The Eagles happen to be the league’s run heaviest team inside the 10 yard line, and for good reason. Assuming Swift remains the lead back — a fairly safe bet — he should benefit bigly running behind an elite offensive line helping the Eagles bulldoze their way into the end zone time and again.
Wide Receiver
DK Metcalf (SEA)
Metcalf returned from his various physical ailments in Week 8 and ran colder than cold against a gettable Cleveland secondary. Metcalf converted 153 air yards — the fourth highest of the week — into 67 real life yards. Not very often will a receiver of Metcalf’s caliber see 14 targets and fail to set the proverbial world aflame. So it goes.
I wrote last week about how terribly unlucky Geno Smith and the Seattle offense had been through Week 7, posting elite EPA numbers on early downs but largely failing to score touchdowns. Well, that annoying little trend continued unabated in Week 8 against the Browns: The Seahawks had the NFL’s fourth highest early-down EPA on the week and managed a humble 24 points, 17 of which came in the game’s first nine minutes.
Metcalf drafters should not lose sight of their guy dominating air yards in an offense that should regress in a decidedly good way over the season’s second half. Metcalf has 42.7 percent of the team’s air yards if you remove the game he missed with injury. It’s tough to overstate the value of Metcalf’s opportunity in the Seahawks offense.
Tee Higgins (CIN)
Higgins started the season healthy. Joe Burrow started the season hobbled. Then Burrow was healthy and Higgins was hobbled. Now that both guys are un-hobbled, better days should be on the way for Higgins, one of the most disappointing fantasy picks in recent memory.
Only Chris Olave and Elijah Moore are further below their expected fantasy points than Higgins, who in Week 8 against the 49ers caught five of his six targets for 65 yards while seeing a hearty 33 percent of the Bengals’ air yards.
No wideout with more than 25 targets this season has a lower air yards conversion rate than Higgins (28 percent), which has sunk his yards per route run. For context: Higgins in 2022 had a 61 percent air yards conversion rate. Things will bounce back for the Bengals WR2.
Burrow finally returning to full health two and a half months after sustaining what was obviously a serious calf injury will lift all boats in the Bengals offense, including the unlucky, leaky one in which Higgins resides.
Davante Adams (LV)
Don’t lose your mind and bench Adams after a few (extremely) frustrating weeks. Probably Adams should have had 30 fantasy points Monday night against the Lions. If only he had a quarterback who didn’t want to make Patrick Daugherty quit watching football.
It’ll be fine for Adams. He’s being targeted relentlessly where it counts the most. No one, in fact, has more red zone targets (16) than Adams this season. And only teammate Jakobi Meyers has as many inside-the-ten looks (9) as Adams. That his targets per route run has slipped to 27 percent, a tad below Meyers, doesn’t worry me all that much. Halfway decent QB play — perhaps from rookie QB Aidan O’Connell — should push Adams back toward the mean. Let us pray.
Tight End
Dallas Goedert (PHI)
Boy, let me tell you what: Folks who drafted Goedert in points per route leagues are adding wings to their mansion and rooms to their super yacht every week. No tight end has more pass routes than Goedert, and only Mark Andrews has logged more tight end slot routes this season.
Please stop pointing out that Goedert is the TE8 in fantasy scoring and has done precious little outside of blowup performances against the Rams and the Dolphins. You’re ruining the shtick.
That Goedert is seeing nothing downfield is a problem for those of us who thought he would have elite upside in the high-octane Philadelphia offense. His 5.2 average depth of target is by far and away the lowest of his NFL career. Goedert’s career aDOT is north of 7.2 and as recently as 2021, it was 8.5.
His route running should keep Goedert live for more touchdowns in the coming weeks. His 21.8 percent first read target share is the sixth highest among tight ends. Don’t lose faith in Goedert. Find religion and keep him rolling in Week 9.
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Regression Candidates (The Bad Kind)
Quarterback
Will Levis (TEN)
Putting Levis in this space the week after he wrecked the Atlanta secondary on his way to four touchdown passes feels mean spirited, wrong on a moral level. I should let the rookie have his moment. But no, I can’t, for you must know the Regression Reaper is coming for the mayonnaise-enjoying Titans quarterback.
Levis could very well be a massive upgrade over the fading Ryan Tannehill if he hangs on to the starting gig for the remainder of the season. His willingness to let it fly should be good for everyone in the Tennessee offense. That doesn’t mean his passing profile won’t give fantasy folks some maddening, highly volatile results.
Against the Falcons last week, 28.6 percent of Levis’ throws were at least 20 yards downfield — the highest rate in the league (by far) in Week 8. Levis completed three of those eight deep shots for 141 of his 237 yards and three of his four touchdowns. It’s the sort of thing that’s beautiful when it works, and statistically horrifying when it doesn’t.
The aggressive downfield passing is certainly new for Levis, who in 2022 at Kentucky threw deep passes on just 13.6 percent of his attempts, the 105th highest rate among qualifying QBs. In 2021, his downfield passing rate was 15.7 percent. That ranked 75th among college quarterbacks. Obviously Levis has the ability to launch it downfield; it’s just not what he was asked to do in college.
Fantasy managers desperate for QB help shouldn’t lose sight of the Titans offense remaining steadfastly run heavy. Tennessee was 10 percent below its expected drop back rate in Week 8 against the Falcons, the team’s second lowest mark of the season. Unless the Titans are utterly forced to drop back and chase points for a quarter or two (or three), expect them to be as conservative as ever. Levis, consequently, should be the rare quarterback with precious little floor and an atomic weekly ceiling.
Wide Receiver
Rashee Rice (KC)
Rice as a regression candidate is in the eye of the beholder, or rather, whether you were bullish on Rice entering his rookie season.
The good: Rice has been targeted on a heady 30 percent of his pass routes this season, second in the KC offense to Travis Kelce (35 percent). Rice’s 2.8 yards per route run is just a shade under Kelce’s.
The bad: Rice is running insanely hot near the goal line. He has four grabs inside the 10 for three touchdowns. Three of his six inside-the-20 receptions this year have gone for touchdowns. Maybe that’s just life as a pass catcher in Patrick Mahomes’ offense (Mahomes is the guy who posted a 40 percent TD rate inside the ten in 2022 and has a 50 percent rate this season). But unless Rice gets a full complement of routes and functions as the clear No. 2 option behind Kelce every week, he could be a somewhat maddening fantasy play.
Romeo Doubs (GB)
Doubs has been in this space before, and might be here again if he continues with his stubborn and frankly rude production on not-that-many targets.
Doubs got away with it again in Week 8 against the Vikings. He managed just four grabs for 18 yards but saved his statistical day with a green zone touchdown -- his fourth of the season. Here’s the thing though: Doubs has exactly four green zone receptions, all for scores, on a mere seven targets.
He also has five red zone touchdowns on just six inside-the-20 catches this year. It simply can’t last, and in a deteriorating Green Bay offense captained by the exposed Jordan Love — who might not be long for the Packers’ starting gig — Doubs surely has a frightening floor for the remainder of the season. His 25 percent targets per route run rate leads the team but is hardly indicative of a target-hogging wideout.
Rashid Shaheed (NO)
I know you, the fantasy football manager, know what you’re getting with the blazing fast Shaheed: A fantasy option with no weekly floor and a 25-point ceiling, depending on what he does with his two or three downfield shots. Last week against the Colts, he caught all three of the deep balls thrown his way and had 153 yards and a touchdown. Shaheed is like Chris Olave but good.
Saints head coach Dennis Allen was, well, muted in his praise of Shaheed following the team’s Week 8 win over Indianapolis.
“Look, I don’t think we’re there yet,” Allen said when asked about Shaheed’s development. “I think there’s still a lot of meat left on the bone in terms of what we need to be able to do and what he can do. His explosiveness down the field is probably his biggest trait. … I think it’s all the little bitty intricacies and the little bitty details he’s still gotta improve on. But his speed and his explosiveness make him really difficult to cover.”
He’s still only running about 50 percent of the Saints’ routes and isn’t seeing any intermediate looks from Derek Carr. He has the eighth most air yards in the NFL over the past month, so he is getting the sort of opportunity that can lead to big fantasy outputs. It’s something of a double edged sword though. Forty-four percent of Shaheed’s targets this season have come more than 20 yards downfield. That is the most surefire recipe for driving fantasy managers insane.
Don’t feel obliged to jam Shaheed into your lineup over a wideout seeing more reliable targets — unless, of course, you desperately require the kind of ceiling outcome Shaheed can offer.
