Identifying players who have run particularly hot or cold in recent weeks will be the goal of his space over the 2024 NFL season.
Spotting guys who are “due” won’t always work out because my children recently lost my magic eight ball, leaving me powerless to predict the future. Nevertheless, we persist in finding NFL players who have overperformed their opportunity and those who have been on the wrong side of what we’ll call variance. Because “luck” is so crass and unsophisticated.
The data keeps piling up. We now have four weeks’ worth of numbers with which to play.
Offenses Running Hot and Cold Through Week 4
Consider this something of a checkup on which offenses are collectively on the right or wrong side of variance through the first month of the regular season. It’s an exercise I’ll do a few times throughout the year: Checking on which teams are successful on early downs and which ones are struggling on first and second down but getting away with it on third and fourth downs.
Commanders: This is just to say that Kliff Kingsbury’s Perfect Machine is for real, not a figment of your analytics-flooded imagination. Washington is second in early-down EPA per play and first overall. Their 53 percent offensive success rate is by far the NFL’s highest. No team has a higher rate of drives that end in a score (68 percent). While the Commanders have played a slew of bad defenses, there’s every reason to believe Jayden Daniels and company can maintain a top-five offense at worst.
Texans: Houston is 16th in EPA per play and they’ve run red hot on third and fourth downs. Only two teams have a better EPA on later downs through Week 4. There’s something very wrong with the Texans offense. C.J. Stroud is taking a lot of sacks and Houston has been rather run heavy on first downs. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowick needs to figure it out before the team’s third and fourth down luck runs out.
Chiefs: Kansas City is 11th in overall EPA per play and top-5 in EPA on third and fourth down. They’re using every last precious sprinkle of Mahomes Magic to keep getting away with it in an offense begging for a total overhaul. The loss of Rashee Rice, the team’s only dependable pass catcher, threatens to tank the whole aging system, which now hinges entirely on Patrick Mahomes working miracles eighteen times a game and Harrison Butker nailing a 70-yarder with time expiring.
This version of the Chiefs is middling in every respect: They are 10th in points per drive (in line with the struggling Cowboys) and 18th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt. I’m wary of everyone in the KC offense. I think it’s time for fantasy managers to come to grips with the end of Mahomes as a viable fantasy option. Travis Kelce of course, is in line for 10 targets a game with Rice likely done for the year.
Bengals: Cincinnati is a tiny rounding error away from leading the NFL in early down EPA. They’re 11th in EPA on third and fourth downs. Meanwhile, Joe Burrow is seeing one of the lowest pressure rates in the league. The Bengals are running somewhat cold in points (8th) and should see a nice bounce back if they maintain their first and second down efficiency.
Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase, and the team’s running backs would be the primary beneficiaries.
Panthers: Carolina is seventh in EPA per play since Andy Dalton took over for Bryce Young in Week 3. Dalton’s Panthers offense is on par with the Bengals, Vikings, and Lions in offensive success rate over the past couple weeks, and only the Chiefs have a better rushing success rate since Week 3.
Carolina isn’t getting away with it either; they’re fourth in early down EPA since the Daltoning began. With a quarterback who can conduct a pro-style offense, the Panthers offense is very real and Diontae Johnson and whoever functions as the lead back are going to benefit bigly.
Saints: After making the EPA Machine go brrrr unlike anything we’ve ever seen in the first two games of the season, the Saints have crashed back to analytics earth. They’re 22nd in EPA per play over the past two weeks and 25th in offensive success rate. Klint Kubiak’s offense remains crushingly run heavy (9 percent under their expected drop back rate on the season) in every situation.
Kubiak, for whatever reason, has largely abandoned the play action usage that was so wildly successful in the first two weeks. After using play action on 70 percent of their offensive plays in Week 1-2, the Saints deployed play action a mere 20 percent of the time in Week 3-4. I hope Saints fans had fun in Weeks 1 and 2 because it’s over for this offense. Everyone but Alvin Kamara and maybe Chris Olave will be frustrating for fantasy purposes.
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Positive Regression Candidates
Quarterback
Geno Smith (SEA)
Geno, every nerd’s favorite quarterback, has (mostly) been lights out through the season’s first month. He’s leading the league in passing yards and he’s eighth best in completion rate over expected in a Seattle offense that’s been 13 percent over their expected drop back rate since a run-heavy Week 1 against Denver.
The Seahawks, as we saw in horrifying clarity on Monday night against Detroit, have been awful in the red zone. To complicate matters for Geno, 67 percent of the Seahawks’ touchdowns have come on the ground this season. Only three teams have a higher rate of rushing scores. If (when) things even out for the ultra pass-heavy Hawks, Geno will cook.
Daniel Jones (NYG)
Jones remains the most maddeningly awful QB in the game, but I would like to take a moment of my finite time on earth to tell you Jones is way below his expected fantasy rushing output this season. No player, in fact, is further below his expected rushing points through Week 4.
Jones has 24 rushes through four games for just 70 yards. His three yards per carry average is well short of his career rate of 5.5 YPC. If the rushing opportunities continue (and Jones keeps his job), that could regress in a good way … one day.
Brock Purdy (SF)
Pushing the buttons in the Shanahan machine has helped Purdy pile on a league-leading 1,133 passing yards through four weeks. The Niners’ passing attack continues to check all the nerdy efficiency boxes too: They’re second to the Bills in adjusted net yards per pass attempt; sixth in points per drive; sixth in drop back success rate; and third in drop back EPA.
Yet Purdy has five touchdown tosses on 122 attempts, good for a TD rate of 4 percent. This could be touchdown regression come home to roost after Purdy posted a touchdown rate of over 7 percent in each of his first two pro seasons. It could also bounce back if the 49ers continue to move the ball with their usual efficiency. A Week 5 date with an Arizona defense that could be the worst in football might do the trick for Purdy.
Running Back
Zack Moss (CIN)
Moss now has eight rushing attempts inside the 10 yard line — the ninth most in the league — and just two touchdowns to show for it. That Chase Brown saw some of the Bengals’ green zone touches in Week 4 is a bit concerning, but Moss should eventually start to punch in more scores with those high-value touches.
Wide Receiver
Courtland Sutton (DEN)
Denver’s clear-cut No. 1 receiver, who saw 37 percent of the team’s targets in Week 4 against the Jets, remains an air/despair yards darling. He leads the NFL with 499 air yards and has a humble 192 receiving yards to show for it.
Is it frustrating? Yes. Does it make you think you might exist in a vast computer simulation and some teenager alien somewhere out there is tormenting you with Sutton’s bottom-dwelling air yard conversion rate? Yes. Is it good to have 45 percent of your team’s air yards through the first month of the regular season? Also yes. Keep starting Sutton and hope/pray Bo Nix figures it out before his 40th birthday.
Amari Cooper (CLE)
The air yards will continue until morale improves for Cooper and those who drafted him in fantasy leagues this summer with the hope Deshaun Watson could one day be as good as 2023 Joe Flacco. Cooper’s 470 air yards ranks fourth in the NFL through Week 4 while he sees about 26 percent of the Browns’ targets. It’s a good, bordering on great wideout profile, if only Watson could throw one (1) accurate downfield pass.
Cooper’s best-case scenario would be Watson finally being benched for gunslinger Jameis Winston. Even if the Browns do the wrong thing and keep pretending the weak-armed Watson will return to 2019 form, Cooper’s production should regress in a decidedly good way. Don’t lose hope yet. Save that for Week 6.
Christian Kirk (JAC)
Don’t let Kirk’s nice fantasy day against the Texans fool you. He ran ice cold against Houston in every measurable way, turning 178 air yards into 61 actual yards (and a touchdown). Only six of Kirk’s 12 targets against Houston were deemed catchable, a stat that might not stun you if you’ve tracked just how awful Trevor Lawrence has been this season (and last season, and mostly every season since his freshman year at Clemson). Only Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson have a higher rate of uncatchable pass attempts in 2024, per Pro Football Focus.
Keep starting Kirk, who has 15 grabs on 22 targets over the past two weeks with Evan Engram (hamstring) on the sideline. It helps every pass catcher in the down-bad Jacksonville offense that the team has been 4 percent over its expected pass rate in the past couple games after starting the season absurdly run heavy. Kirk’s production should be even better than it has been.
Negative Regression Candidates
Quarterback
Sam Darnold (MIN)
Darnold, who I very much support, is due for a down game or three. He’s thrown a touchdown on a whopping 10.5 percent of his attempts through four games; no other quarterback has a TD rate above 6.8 percent.
Darnold’s drop back success rate could be a harbinger of things to come. He ranks 13th in that metric, alongside struggling passers like Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott. Seventy-nine percent of the Vikings’ touchdowns have come via the pass, the highest rate in the NFL through Week 4. Though Darnold should continue to pass as a top-12 weekly option in a QB-friendly system, he can’t run hot on touchdown tosses forever. I don’t think he can anyway.
Running Back
Jonathan Taylor (IND)
I know he’s down with the lowest high ankle sprain in recorded history, but Taylor has been less than fortunate on his inside-the-10 carries through Week 4. He has six such rushes — third most in the NFL — and just two touchdowns. Taylor has three scores on 16 red zone rushing attempts.
That kind of high leverage touch share should produce more touchdowns when Taylor’s low/high ankle sprain heals.
Wide Receiver
Michael Pittman (IND) and Josh Downs (IND)
It’s not a happy accident that Pittman set season highs in receptions (6) and yards (116) with Flacco under center for most of Week 4. A Flacco offense is a high-volume offense. A Flacco offense is one commanded by a quarterback who can complete short and intermediate passes. A Richardson offense is neither of those things. Downs, meanwhile, caught eight of nine targets for 82 yards and a touchdown against the Steelers. He hadn’t seen that kind of volume since Gardner Minshew was guiding the Indianapolis offense.
This all comes down to whether Joe Flacco starts for the Colts in Week 5. If Anthony Richardson, who left last week’s win over the Steelers with some kind of hip injury, is back in the saddle, Pittman isn’t playable outside of the deepest fantasy formats. A run-heavy offense with the worst passer in the league isn’t gonna do it for Downs and Pittman.
Jordan Addison (MIN)
Addison, who caught all three of his targets for 72 yards and a touchdown in Week 4, looks to have the same profile he had in 2023 when Justin Jefferson was healthy and dominating targets in the Minnesota offense.
That Addison is a big play guy is not a question. He is, and we knew that when he was coming into the NFL. Probably you have a better fantasy option than Addison in 10 and 12-team leagues though. Remember: Addison was targeted on a lowly 10.2 percent of his pass routes last week against the Packers. He has yet to show an ability to command looks with Jefferson in the lineup, which makes sense considering Jefferson is an alien.
Jayden Reed (GB)
Reed is averaging a perfectly normal 19.8 yards per reception and 15.5 yards per target this season. Reed’s yards after the catch average (9.4) is just slightly above his 2023 mark of 5.3. Reed is good, and good players are efficient with their opportunities. But not this good.
I’m confident in saying Reed’s peripherals will deflate in the coming weeks, though an increase in play and pass volume for the Packers with Jordan Love back under center could help counteract that regression. Reed leads all NFL players in fantasy points over expected.
