Identifying players who have run particularly hot or cold in recent weeks will be the goal of his space over the 2024 NFL season.
Spotting guys who are “due” won’t always work out because my children recently lost my magic eight ball, leaving me powerless to predict the future. Nevertheless, we persist in finding NFL players who have overperformed their opportunity and those who have been on the wrong side of what we’ll call variance. Because “luck” is so crass and unsophisticated.
Now that we have our precious Week 1 data, let’s get into which players ran hot and which guys ran cold, and what it means for Week 2 and beyond.
Positive Regression Candidates
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford (LAR)
The Rams in Week 1 against Detroit were 5 percent above their expected drop back rate; only the Browns logged more opening week drop backs than Sean McVay’s team. Stafford had 317 yards and five pass attempts inside the 10-yard line. It all amounted to one touchdown.
Only two quarterbacks in Week 1 had more red zone throws than Stafford. McVay’s Rams have traditionally been among the league’s pass heaviest red zone units. If that continues — even without Puka Nacua — I’d expect Stafford to see a nice bounce back in touchdown production in the next week or two.
Lamar Jackson (BAL)
Not that you’re considering benching Jackson after he poured on the fantasy points on the strength of 122 rushing yards in Week 1 against Kansas City, but realize just how cold he ran as a passer in Baltimore’s loss.
Jackson completed just one of eight red zone pass attempts for nine scoreless yards. He threw six passes inside the 10-yard line and completed none. A little better luck on those high-leverage attempts and Jackson should cook in Week 2 against the down-bad Raiders.
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Wide Receiver
Courtland Sutton (DEN)
It was ugly all around for Denver’s offense in Week 1’s loss to the Seahawks, which looked just slightly less ugly. Sutton drafters did not have a good time as their guy managed 38 yards on four grabs.
But wait. Sutton drafters should know their process was good. Wipe those tears and realize that no wideout had more air yards (172) than Sutton in Week 1, and that his 29 percent target share was the 12th highest of the week. And it’s not as if Sutton collected most of his air yards on a few downfield shots from Bo Nix. Only 18 percent of his Week 1 looks were of the downfield variety. Don’t pull the plug on your can-Nix-support-Sutton experiment just yet.
Amari Cooper (CLE)
Do I feel good about putting a Deshaun Watson wide receiver in this space? I do not. Nevertheless, we persist. Cooper ran ice cold in Week 1 against Dallas, second in the NFL in air yards (171) and commanding a decent 21 percent target share. He was heartbreakingly close to a long garbage time touchdown too. The throw, as it often is from Watson, was slightly off the mark.
The Browns in 2023 led the league in offensive snaps. In Week 1, they ran 76 offensive plays, the fourth most in the NFL. Cleveland’s offense in theory is a fantasy friendly unit. This high-volume offense will continue until morale improves. It means lots of routes and targets for Cooper as the Browns’ clear No. 1 wideout. All he needs is for the Browns to bench their billion dollar quarterback.
Calvin Ridley (TEN)
Another air yards superstar in Week 1, Ridley’s involvement in the Tennessee offense against Chicago was good bordering on great.
Ridley last week saw 24 percent of the Titans’ targets and 70 percent of the team’s air yards. That it all resulted in three grabs for 50 yards must not dissuade you, the process lover. The Titans were 5 percent over their expected drop back rate against the Bears. These aren’t your great grandfather’s Titans, as I wrote last week. They’re going to keep throwing it.
Ridley has a real ceiling in such a positive fantasy environment. It doesn’t hurt that DeAndre Hopkins is playing on one leg.
Keon Coleman (BUF)
Coleman in his first regular season NFL game ran a route on 94 percent of Josh Allen’s drop backs and led the team with a 21.7 percent target share. It’s all bullish for the social media-savvy rookie wideout. That he only had four grabs for 51 yards is immaterial. The process!
Fantasy managers should have come to grips this summer with the Buffalo offense under Joe Brady being a decidedly run first unit. That’s exactly what they were in the second half of the 2023 season. And here’s the thing: It worked. The Bills were top seven in both offensive success rate and EPA per play over the season’s final eight weeks.
On Sunday against the Cardinals, Brady’s Bills offense was a stunning 12 percent below their expected drop back rate. Add nine Allen rushes to that equation and you get a minuscule number of targets to spread around. While Coleman’s Week 1 usage was excellent, a 22 percent target share in this Bills offense is not what it would be in a balanced or pass-first offense.
Tight End
Colby Parkinson (LAR)
Parkinson isn’t in this positive regression space because I think he’ll regularly prove to be a great fantasy option. I only want to point out Parkinson’s superb Week 1 usage in a Rams offense that will be without target-hogging Puka Nacua for the next month.
Against the Lions, Parkinson ran a route on a strong 83 percent of the Rams’ drop backs and caught four of his five targets. He profiles as a classic volume-based tight end option who has a clear path to weekly value in a massive pass-heavy Los Angeles offense.
Negative Regression Candidates
Quarterback
Anthony Richardson (IND)
This is not me taking anything away from Richardson’s terrific opening week performance against the Texans. His flat-footed 68-yard completion to Alec Pierce might be the most impressive throw in the history of organized football.
This is just me telling you that 76 percent of Richardson’s passing yards came in the form of air yards, the second highest rate of the week behind Trevor Lawrence. A-Rich’s average depth of target (18.6) led the NFL by a wide margin. This is, by any definition, a high-variance passing profile — one that will look awfully good when Richardson hits those moon shots, and not so good when those passes hit the turf.
I’ll also note that Richardson in Week 1 had one pass attempt inside the 20-yard line and none inside the 10-yard line. The Colts last week ran a league-low 45 offensive plays and were 10 percent below their expected drop back rate. These are all little hints of coming regression.
Derek Carr (NO)
Three of Carr’s 19 completions against Carolina in Week 1 went for touchdowns. He was nearly 14 percent over this expected completion rate. Though I’m bullish on the new Saints offense and its creativity, fantasy managers would do well to pump the proverbial brakes on tapping Carr as a locked-in starter in 12-team formats for now.
Running Back
Saquon Barkley (PHI)
I’m dropping Barkley in here not to cope about having zero teams with Barkely on the roster, but to tell you he saw an insane number of red zone carries (8) in Week 1 against Green Bay. That’s a pace of 136 red zone rushes this season. Last year, Christian McCaffrey led the NFL with 62 red zone rushing attempts.
Wide Receiver
Seattle Seahawks pass catchers
In drafting my fantasy squads this summer, I made a (strong) bet that the new Seattle offense would be pass first at worst and downright pass heavy at best. This would lift all boats for an offense that disappointed in 2023.
Through Week 1, I am as wrong as anyone has ever been about anything. Seahawks OC Ryan Grubb called an extraordinarily run heavy game against the Broncos last week. The Seahawks were 12 percent below their expected drop back rate. They had a meager 42 percent pass rate while leading in Week 1. A 28 percent target share for Tyler Lockett meant just seven looks from Geno Smith.
If this approach holds in the coming weeks and months, Ken Walker (or Zach Charbonnet) is going to be the unquestioned centerpiece of the Seattle attack, and fantasy managers shouldn’t feel confident about using any of the Seahawks pass catchers, including, sadly, DK Metcalf.
And yes, I am both coping and crying.
George Pickens (PIT)
You’re pleased with Pickens’ 85 yards on six grabs in Week 1 against Atlanta. It was fine, if not spectacular.
The nature of the Pittsburgh offense is going to make it tough for Pickens to be a WR2 this season without eye-watering efficiency. His seven targets against the Falcons constituted a hefty 32 percent target share. Context, as always, is annoyingly important. Arthur Smith’s offense was a whopping 15 percent below its expected drop back rate in Week 1. Justin Fields had a mere 23 pass attempts, 77 percent of which were short of the first down sticks.
This is going to be an ugly offense for fantasy purposes, as you may have suspected. Without a big play or three, Pickens is going to be frustrating. Prepare yourself emotionally and physically for such an outcome.
Allen Lazard (NYJ)
The inevitability of regression might not apply to Aaron’s Guys, and no one has ever been more of an Aaron Guy than his buddy Allen Lazard, who in Week 1 turned nine targets into six catches for 89 yards and two touchdowns (one of those TDs came from Tyrod Taylor in garbage time).
Only Garrett Wilson out-targeted Lazard against the Niners (the two wideouts combined for a 69 percent target share). While Lazard likely won’t be targeted on 28 percent of his pass routes every week — as he was on Monday night — I think it’s fair to say he’ll be the Jets’ WR2 until further notice. Maybe Mike Williams, who ran just six routes against the Niners, will take that role when he’s fully healthy. Obviously Lazard’s multi-touchdown games will be few and far between, but he shouldn’t be dismissed after his strong usage in Week 1.
Alec Pierce (IND)
Regression Files readers know they are not legally allowed to get excited about a big statistical day on little volume. This is a law and order column first and foremost.
Pierce’s three catches for 125 yards and one touchdown against the Texans in Week 1 came with a tidy little 39 average depth of target. The guy had 119 air yards on his three opportunities. This is a conservative Colts offense that was nine percent below its expected drop back rate against Houston. All of the Indy’s pass catchers will struggle to get there for fantasy purposes in games where the Colts enjoy neutral or positive game script. That certainly includes Pierce.
Tight End
Isaiah Likely (BAL)
Cut through all the Mark Andrews copium polluting the air after Week 1 and understand this: Likely against the Chiefs ran a route on 70 percent of the team’s drop backs and was targeted on 34 percent of his pass routes -- an alpha WR1 kind of rate.
I understand Andrews was double teamed and whatnot. That he was so easily taken out of the Baltimore offense is another issue entirely. Likely ran from the slot on 42 percent of his Week 1 routes and 10 percent from the boundary. Baltimore used two tight end sets on 31 of its 80 plays against KC.
I refuse to believe, after an offseason of Ravens coaches pledging more usage for Likely, that Week 1 was entirely fluky. He’ll be a thing. Fantasy folks need to adjust their expectations though.
