Spotting guys who have overperformed their opportunity and those who have been on the wrong side of what we’ll call variance — because “luck” is so crass — can help us with waiver wire additions, start-sits, and sneaky DFS plays, if you’re into that sort of thing.
That’s my goal with the Regression Files: Pinpointing players seemingly due for regression to the mean, for better or worse.
We’ll start with players who have run cold of late, and who might be due for something of a bounce back in Week 15 and beyond.
Regression Candidates (The Good Kind)
Running Back
Zack Moss (IND)
Folks, he’s back and more unlucky than ever. The Regression Reaper did not deliver for Moss in Week 14 against the Bengals thanks mostly to a phantom holding call against the Colts on a Moss touchdown rush in the first half. I’m not mad about it. Don’t tell the newspaper I’m mad.
In two games since Jonathan Taylor went down with a thumb injury, Moss has 38 of 41 running back carries for Indianapolis and has run a pass route on 70 percent of the team’s drop backs (while seeing ten targets). You simply cannot bench that sort of fantasy profile.
Though the Colts have turned toward the pass since Taylor’s injury — only the Ravens and Eagles have higher neutral pass rates over the past two weeks — they remain a run-first red zone team, with the league’s sixth lowest pass rate over expected inside the 20. You can’t pay the utility bill with The Process, I know, but keep playing Moss and The Process should produce some actual fantasy production.
Wide Receiver
Zay Jones (JAC)
Jones, in the Jaguars’ first game without Christian Kirk, commanded a cool 14 targets, or a 28 percent target share. Variance was not Zay’s friend, to be sure: His 222 air yards against the Browns — the most among all pass catchers in Week 14 — resulted in five grabs for 29 yards. His yards per route run of 0.56 against Cleveland tells the saddest story ever told.
All of Jones’ peripherals were solid last week; he even led Jacksonville with a 27 percent targets per route run. That should pay dividends in this post-Kirk Jaguars offense. Jones was moved around a bit against the Browns, running 25 percent of his routes from the slot (while Calvin Ridley, interestingly, had a 29 percent slot rate, much higher than his 17 percent rate on the season).
Jones remains a more-than-viable WR3 option based solely on the opportunities he’ll see as Jacksonville’s 1B receiving option. Do not, under any circumstances, rage-bench Zay in Week 15 against Baltimore.
Jonathan Mingo (CAR)
The number of unrealized air yards Mingo has seen this season has been something to behold, a truly inspiring stat, a masterstroke by Bryce Young in his deeply forgettable rookie campaign.
That Mingo had 160 air yards and 22 actual yards in Week 14 against the Saints is nothing new, as his beleaguered fantasy managers can attest (through tears and dry heaves). He’s 12th among all wideouts in air yards over the past four weeks and has led Carolina with a hefty 37 percent air yards share over that span. Mingo also leads the team with a 25.5 percent target share over those four weeks, which is nice, if inconsequential in this Panthers offense.
Young, as you may have seen, missed a tragically wide open Mingo last week on what would have been a 45-yard touchdown. Eventually, this ocean of air yards should turn into a halfway usable fantasy line if Young can make one (1) decent throw in his disastrous rookie season.
One factor working against Mingo: The Panthers have gone ultra run heavy over the past month, trying to run the clock out on another miserable season. They’re a stunning 12 percent below their expected drop back rate since Week 11. Against the Saints in Week 14, Young dropped back on just 55 percent of the team’s plays while trailing. That’s going to limit target volume for everyone in the Carolina offense.
Noah Brown (HOU)
One thing I love to do is to spell out the bull case for a receiver who does not have a single reception over his past two games. For me, this is the epitome of fun.
So we arrive at Brown, who has run a route on 77 percent of Houston’s drop backs over the past two weeks, drawn seven targets, and caught none of them. If you can hold your nose for a moment, I’ll tell you Brown has a 26 percent air yards share over that two-game stretch. All of that is secondary to the injuries that have ravaged the Texans’ pass-catching group. Tank Dell is done for the year with a broken leg and Nico Collins sustained another calf injury, leaving Brown — or maybe Robert Woods — as the de facto No. 1 receiver headed into Week 15. Never has a bleaker sentence been written.
This is an entirely different story for Brown and the team’s wideouts if C.J. Stroud is out for Week 15 with a brain injury he suffered last week against the Jets. Brown, despite his recent goose eggs, should not be dismissed as a viable PPR option with Collins and Dell sidelined. Those two stud wideouts, by the bye, combined for 61 percent of Houston’s air yards, 41 percent of their targets, and 43 percent of their red zone targets before Week 13.
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Tight End
Logan Thomas (WAS)
Thomas, a perennial cardio champ — running all the routes and seeing very few targets — is in another theoretically good spot in Week 15 against the Rams.
LA has become a reliable pass funnel defense over the past month, as I may have pointed out in last week’s Funnel Defense Report ahead of the Rams’ matchup with Baltimore (I will never “stop patting my own back”). LA opponents since Week 10 have a 66 percent neutral pass rate. There’s simply no chance Sam Howell and the pass-only Commanders don’t drop back 1.4 million times against these Rams.
Thomas, meanwhile, is well under his expected fantasy output since Week 8. In fact, only David Njoku is further below his expected points over the past six weeks. Thomas has averaged 5.9 targets in Washington losses this season and 4.2 targets in wins. I have news for the folks: The Rams are going to bludgeon the Commanders this weekend. It should fuel target volume for Thomas and the Washington pass catchers against a defense giving up the 12th most receptions to tight ends in 2023.
Regression Candidates (The Bad Kind)
Quarterback
Jake Browning (CIN)
Browning is doing everything the Bengals want him to do. He’s managing the game unlike anyone since Game Managing King Alex Smith. He’s checking down on well-designed screen plays. He’s making safe middle-of-the-field throws to Ja’Marr Chase. Browning — the greatest high school quarterback in history — is doing it all.
And he’s been quite fun for fantasy purposes. Browning is the sort of desperation fantasy option that makes you feel like a certified genius. You’re the god dang Oppenheimer of fantasy football after playing him in Week 13 and 14 and reaping all the rewards.
Browning over those two weeks has 38 expected fantasy points and 57 actual fantasy points. That’s quite the discrepancy. Against the Colts in Week 14, 202 of Browning’s 275 passing yards came after the catch. That means two things: Cincy’s game plan worked beautifully and Browning Got Away With It.
This week Browning and the Bengals square off against a suddenly elite Vikings defense that has put enemy QBs in a blender over the past month. Only the Broncos have allowed a lower EPA per play than the Vikings since Week 10 as defensive coordinator Brian Flores deploys an exotic defense that no one in pro football has ever seen. I think fantasy managers who have been made to feel so terribly smart about Browning need to find another option in Week 15. I fear for Browning’s fantasy floor, and for the Regression Reaper, who surely cometh.
Derek Carr (NO)
It feels wrong to put Carr in this negative regression space. I feel like a bully — a strange sensation for an analytics nerd.
When he’s not being dressed down by furious teammates during games, Carr is running red hot in the green zone. He’s completed exactly eight passes inside the ten yard line this season; all of them have gone for touchdowns. His lackluster fantasy numbers could (should) be even worse as Taysom Hill serves as the Saints’ primary red zone quarterback. The Saints, meanwhile, have passed the ball on 32 percent of their green zone plays this season.
Carr is borderline unplayable going forward. Again, this feels like bullying. Maybe it is.
Running Back
Raheem Mostert (MIA)
The bifurcation of the Miami backfield has left one back (De’Von Achane) with immense PPR upside and one back (Mostert) with touchdown upside. I’ll let you hazard a guess as to which brand of upside I prefer as a nerd who hates touchdowns.
In Week 14 against the Titans, Achane saw every two-minute snap in the Dolphins backfield and drew nine targets on 22 routes, running 14 of those routes from the slot or the boundary. The rookie is functioning as a hybrid RB-WR. Mostert, meanwhile, saw all the green zone snaps and consequently scored two short touchdowns against the Titans. He caught his lone target for four yards.
It’s not that the Dolphins desperately want to operate a balanced offense. They don’t. Only five teams have a higher neutral pass rate on the season; Miami is 2 percent over their expected drop back rate in 2023. But when the Dolphins secure a lead, they become the ‘85 Bears, passing the ball on a mere 51 percent of their offensive snaps. That should, for now, fuel touch-based upside for Mostert.
It’s when the Dolphins fall behind — something I could see them doing in the coming weeks — that Mostert will lose out to Achane on snaps and routes and targets. Miami has a 67 percent pass rate when trailing this year. Struggles for a suddenly injury-marred Dolphins offense down the stretch will be much better for Achane than it will be for Old Man Mostert.
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Wide Receiver
Drake London (ATL)
You gotta hand it to London drafters who were brave enough to roll him out in Week 14 against the Bucs. London racked up ten catches for 172 yards — both season highs. Not even Arthur Smith could ruin things for London and those who drafted him in fantasy leagues.
The Regression Reaper is a patient specter, however, and it could come for Atlanta’s WR1 in the next week or two. The reaper will be assisted by the insanely run-heavy nature of the Falcons offense: They are 7 percent below their expected drop back rate on the season, and to make matters (much) worse, the Falcons pass the ball on a miserable 35 percent of their plays while trailing. That means, in short, that negative game script won’t necessarily fuel London’s target volume. And don’t let Arthur Smith grab a lead. The Falcons drop back to pass on 20 percent of their plays in such scenarios.
I’m legally required to tell you that London converted 172 of his 178 Week 14 air yards, which, suffice it to say, is unsustainable for a receiver who has a 54 percent air yards conversion rate in 2023. Against the run-funnel Panthers defense in Week 14, it’s possible the Falcons set back the game of football by three generations and fail to throw a single pass. I’m kidding, mostly. But it won’t be a good spot for London — or any Atlanta pass catcher.
Demarcus Robinson (LAR)
Robinson didn’t exactly come out of nowhere in Week 14 against the Ravens. The Rams had largely phased out pint-sized Tutu Atwell for Robinson as the team had progressively become more run heavy.
Atwell sustained a brain injury in last week’s game against Baltimore, giving Robinson a full complement of snaps. That’s hardly a bad gig in an LA offense that uses three-wideout sets on a league-leading 90 percent of their offensive snaps.
It’s Robinson’s team-leading ten targets in Week 14 that I view with a (deeply) skeptical eye. I know: You do too. His target volume was made possible by a back-and-forth, pass-heavy game script. The Rams — who had been 3 percent under their expected drop back rate from Week 11-13 — were still 2 percent under that rate against the Ravens. It was the play volume that lifted all boats, including Robinson’s.
Tight End
Will Mallory (IND)
If you’re trying to get fancy in a deep league and start Colts TE Will Mallory, how dare you. That’s way too fancy. Criminally fancy, some would say.
Mallory caught all five of his targets for 46 yards against the Bengals last week. He did so on just 16 pass routes. Though Mallory has seen a route running uptick over the past three weeks, he’s still splitting the pass-catching tight end role with Kylen Granson, who had four targets in Week 14 against the Bengals. I have a sneaking suspicion Mallory won’t repeat his 32 percent targets per route run feat in Week 15.
