Identifying players who have run particularly hot or cold in recent weeks will be the goal of his space over the 2024 NFL season.
Spotting guys who are “due” won’t always work out because my children recently lost my magic eight ball, leaving me powerless to predict the future. Nevertheless, we persist in finding NFL players who have overperformed their opportunity and those who have been on the wrong side of what we’ll call variance. Because “luck” is so crass and unsophisticated.
Since we’re headed into Week 1, I’ll focus today on players due for various forms of regression over the course of the 2024 season, based largely on their 2023 campaigns and their career production rates. Next week we’ll have those sweet, sweet small sample sizes with which to draw outlandish hypotheses of player prospects. In my best Bart Scott voice: Can’t wait.
Positive Regression Candidates
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes (KC): Mahomes in 2023 posted career lows in adjusted yards per attempt (6.9) and passing success rate (48.3 percent). Mahomes’ unreliable pass catchers led to a miserable 44 percent air yards conversion rate, on par with Zach Wilson and Daniel Jones. In 2022, Mahomes converted 55 percent of his air yards into real yards. Andy Reid and the Chiefs seem more interested this year in scoring points. And we know KC will continue throwing the ball in the red zone at a high clip. Probably that’s a good development for Mahomes’ fantasy prospects.
Geno Smith (SEA): Loyal Rotoworld Football Show listeners know I’m bullish on the Seahawks passing offense going brrr in 2024 under new OC Ryan Grubb. Faster play, more three-receiver sets, more offensive snaps, more drop backs — it should all be there under Grubb. Geno is due for some (good) touchdown regression too. His 4 percent TD rate in 2023 was below his 5.3 percent rate the year before. Don’t forget: Geno could very well be elite.
Wide Receiver
Garrett Wilson (NYJ): No wideout was further below his expected fantasy point output in 2023 thanks to some of the worst quarterback play in the history of organized football (Zach Wilson’s 4.29 adjusted net yards per attempt was the second worst in the NFL and Garrett Wilson saw one of the league’s lowest rate of catchable targets). Wilson, who commanded a hefty 30 percent of the Jets’ targets and 52 percent of the team’s air yards in the team’s lost 2023 season, will immediately benefit from competent QB play this fall. But you knew that already.
Chris Olave (NO): Olave’s 2023 season had all the makings of one with immense upside. Sadly for Olave drafters, Derek Carr was abysmal on deep shots, as Olave was able to reel in just eight of his 32 downfield targets. A mere three wideouts saw more downfield looks in 2023. Despite the lack of deep ball success, Olave was still 21st in yards per route run among receivers. If (when) Carr and Olave connect on more of those high-leverage attempts, Olave should remind folks why they were giddy about drafting him in 2023.
Davante Adams (LV): Miserable QB play produced a down year for Adams last season, even while he continued dominating opportunities like a typical alpha WR1. Among receivers who had at least 80 targets, Adams saw the ninth worst catchable target rate and converted a meager 43 percent of his air yards. Garden Minshew, I think, is enough of an upgrade to project slightly more efficiency for Adams in 2024. Antonio Pierce’s ground-and-pound obsession could be an issue for Adams’ volume, however.
Jonathan Mingo (CAR): Yes, it was probably his fault, but Mingo had the second highest fantasy points under expected in 2023. His expected fantasy points — don’t try to feed your family with those; I’ve tried — were in line with Pop Douglas and Gabe Davis. Mingo’s catchable target rate was dead last in 2023. It’s something to monitor for folks in 24-team leagues.
Negative Regression Candidates
Running Back
Gus Edwards (LAC): Gus Bus found the end zone early and often last season as the Ravens’ default RB1. Only five backs had more inside-the-ten (green zone) rushing attempts than Edwards, who converted those high value touches into a whopping 13 touchdowns. Edwards, who led the league in inside-the-five carries, did not have a rushing score outside the green zone. Without that kind of opportunity locked in — and as he shared the LA backfield with J.K. Dobbins — Edwards this year profiles as a touchdown-reliant fantasy option who won’t have the green zone chances he enjoyed in 2023.
Raheem Mostert (MIA): Maybe the Dolphins see Mostert as their red zone hammer and he’ll continue piling on touchdowns near the paint. It’s worth noting that Mostert in 2023 had 33 green zone rushes — the third most among RBs — and 14 green zone touchdowns, leading all backs. Mostert also ran hot as a pass catcher in the red zone: He had three TDs on just six inside-the-20 receptions in 2023. A more prominent role for De’Von Achane or slightly less positive game script for a Dolphins offense that was very much a front-running unit in 2023 and Mostert’s high value looks could easily dissipate in 2024.
Wide Receiver
Courtland Sutton (DEN): Folks who have been drafting fantasy teams since St. Patrick’s Day knew this was coming. Sutton last season had 10 touchdowns on 59 receptions for a cool 17 percent TD rate. That … isn’t happening again. As Ben Gretch of Stealing Signals recently wrote, Sean Payton is threatening to build the entire plane out of running back targets with checkdown king Bo Nix under center. This could ding Sutton’s opportunities to the point where he is more of a touchdown-dependent WR3 in fantasy.
Jordan Addison (MIN): Addison’s solid rookie year included 10 touchdown catches on 70 receptions, or a 14.4 percent TD rate. Eight of those scores came outside the red zone. He likely can’t keep that up, and he gets a QB downgrade with Sam Darnold in place of Kirk Cousins. I’m scared. Hold me.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET): This isn’t me telling you to feel badly about taking St. Brown in your drafts this summer. He should be fine (though I believe Jameson Williams’ pass game involvement has been understated and his emergence could ding ARSB’s fantasy output). You should know St. Brown scored a touchdown on 8.5 percent of his receptions in 2023. He came into last season with a touchdown rate of 5.5 percent.
