In our everlasting mission to predict the future, a top-down look at how an offense might attack their opponent’s defense is, in my humble estimation, a good place to start.
We find defenses every season that profile as a so-called run funnel, meaning opponents lean unusually hard on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: Defenses that are regularly attacked through the air in neutral situations (generally meaning when the game is within seven points either way).
Identifying those matchups is the point of this column. We’ll get better, more reliable data on how teams are attacking defenses as the season rolls on.
This funnel defense analysis should not be the end-all-be-all for how you determine your weekly fantasy plays. It is but another data point in your brain-rattling decision making on who to play and who to bench.
Pass Funnel Matchups
Commanders vs. Ravens
In the Battle of the Beltway (I can confirm there are many battles on the Beltway every day), there’s almost no path to the Commanders being run heavy against the NFL’s most pronounced pass funnel defense.
Baltimore opponents are now a league-leading 6 percent over their expected pass rate this season. Teams are (reasonably) avoiding the Ravens’ brick wall rush defense and attacking their vulnerable secondary. We saw as much in Week 5 when the Bengals were 5 percent over their expected drop back rate, leading to 43 Joe Burrow drop backs. The Bills in Week 4 dropped back on 66 percent of their plays against the Ravens, far higher than their season-long average of 56 percent. If you’re still unimpressed by the Ravens’ pass funnel ways, consider 82 percent of the yards gained against Baltimore in 2024 have come through the air. Only five defenses are above 70 percent.
Kliff Kingsbury has opened up the pass game a bit over the past few weeks, but not much. Washington still sports the league’s lowest neutral pass rate — a rate that’s actually decreased over their past two games. Jayden Daniels just happens to be a mechanically efficient passer. Daniels’ rushing opportunities and the likelihood that the Commanders will lean on the run as long as they can in this Week 6 matchup probably means Daniels won’t throw 40 passes. Still, there should be unusual volume for Commanders pass catchers. That includes, naturally, Terry McLaurin, whose receiving profile has been astoundingly good for fantasy purposes over the past three games, as I wrote in this week’s Regression Files.
Zach Ertz could also benefit from Kliff and company ratcheting up the PROE (pass rate over expected) Machine. Ertz, much to the zoomers’ dismay, is second on the team with an 18 percent target share. He’s being targeted on a not-entirely-hateful 17 percent of his pass routes. With Baltimore’s defense plays two high safety coverage at the NFL’s 11th highest rate, Ertz could see plenty of underneath opportunities. Do you smell what I smell? A real-deal PPR scam. It smells delicious. I’m hungry for seven catches and 49 yards.
Cowboys vs. Lions
Jalen Tolbert is fresh off leading the Cowboys with 10 targets and a stunning 44 percent of the team’s air yards in Week 5 against the Steelers. The Sunday Night Football hero could keep it going in Week 6 against Detroit, the league’s second most pronounced pass funnel.
Obviously CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson — who played last week as the team’s full-time slot guy — should see inflated target volume if the Cowboys abandon the run and drop back 40 or 50 times against Detroit. We know Dallas is apt to follow this script against a pass funnel. Against the Ravens in Week 3, they were 7 percent over their expected drop backs rate. Rico Dowdle could also see a sprinkle of targets in such a scenario if he can overcome the inevitable Hunter Luepke, who leads the Dallas backfield pass routes over the past two games.
For deeper (deepest) league purposes, KeVontae Turpin could be of some interest in a pass-heavy script. Turpin last week against the Steelers saw five targets on just 15 pass routes. Turpin has the juice. I don’t care that this doesn’t qualify as analytics.
Cardinals vs. Packers
Only four teams are allowing more yards before contact per rush than the Packers through Week 5. Only seven teams have a higher rushing stuff rate. Only three teams have fewer missed tackles against opposing rushers. This might explain why Packers opponents this season are 3 percent over their expected pass rate.
I like the Cardinals’ chances of being forced into a pass-heavy script this week in a game featuring a heady 49.5 total (a total that’s risen by three points since Monday). We don’t have much 2024 history on the Cards facing pass funnel defenses. But when they squared off in Week 3 against the Lions — a top-two pass funnel — the Cardinals dropped back on 70 percent of their offensive snaps, a season high for them. Kyler Murray had 34 pass attempts, his highest total of the young season. The Cardinals were 9 percent over their expected first down pass rate in that matchup; their season-long rate is -5 percent. That’s the stuff.
Marvin Harrison, Jr. and Trey McBride would be the obvious beneficiaries of a game in which Murray drops back a bunch. Michael Wilson, being targeted on 18.5 percent of his routes with an 11.5 average depth of target, could be a secondary beneficiary. He should be under consideration in leagues with multiple flex spots.
Run Funnel Matchups
Lions vs. Cowboys
You know the story: Everyone runs — or at least tries to run — against the heinous Dallas defense. The Cowboys rank as the NFL’s sixth most extreme run funnel defense this season. The pass-first Giants were under their expected drop back rate against the Cowboys, and — to exactly no one’s surprise — Arthur Smith’s Steelers offense was 6 percent below its expected drop back rate against Dallas last Sunday night.
The 2024 Lions, much like the 2023 Lions, want to run it whenever possible. They have a 53 percent neutral pass rate through Week 5 and they run the ball at a 60 percent rate when leading. Few teams have been more run heavy this season. Detroit is 8 percent below its expected drop back rate overall, and in the past two games, they’re 15 percent below.
I’m hardly breaking news in saying Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are both must starts in Week 6. Montgomery doesn’t have a death grip on touches near the painted area so far in 2024. Monty leads the Lions with ten carries inside the ten yard line while Gibbs has seven. Montgomery leads in inside-the-five carries, six to four. Against a Dallas defense with the NFL’s lowest rushing stuff rate (33 percent) and sixth highest yards before contact per rush, both Detroit backs should be in for a big day.
What this means for the Lions pass catchers is slightly less appealing. Unless game script goes wacky in this one, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jameson Williams are likely going to split a smallish target pie. St. Brown, with a 32 percent target share, has been able to survive the emergence of Williams as a target earner. LaPorta, not so much. His 11 percent target share is abysmal and his target per route run rate (13.5 percent) is disheartening at best. The conservative, run-first nature of the Detroit offense leaves an exceedingly narrow path for LaPorta to get back to form while Williams and St. Brown take in 53 percent of the team’s targets.
Jets vs. Bills
The Jets, with their defensive minded, Giga Chad-meme interim head coach, are going to run the damn ball like no one has ever run the damn ball in Week 6. Jeff Ulbrich isn’t just going to establish the run; he’s going to establish the culture, and in the process, bring a smile to every sports media talking head who longs for the pass rates of 1987.
The volume pass game has not worked out for the Jets. They’re 23rd in EPA per play thanks to one of the NFL’s least efficient passing attacks. There is nothing left to do but to hand the ball to Breece Hall and Braelon Allen.
Luckily for the Jets, they play a Buffalo defense this week that practically begs opponents to establish the run. The Bills play two high safety coverage at the league’s fourth highest rate and rarely stack the box with defenders. Consequently, they’re allowing the highest yards per carry (5.2) and the highest yards before contact per rush. The Bills, the seventh most pronounced run funnel defense, are perfectly amenable to a bunch of four and five yard rushes -- gains that should placate the Jets this week.
The Jets will likely see a lot of neutral and positive game script here against a dysfunctional Buffalo offense that will struggle against New York’s defense. That should allow Hall and Allen to have fantasy relevance for the first time in a while.
Packers vs. Cardinals
On the flip side of the aforementioned Arizona-Green Bay matchup, we have the Packers looking at a second straight run heavy game (they were 8 percent below their expected drop back rate last week against the Rams). Cardinals opponents are passing the ball at a league-low 45 percent clip in neutral situations this season. For as bad as the Arizona secondary has been, the team’s rush defense hasn’t been much better: Only six teams allow more yards before contact per rush and a mere four teams give up a higher rushing success rate.
That Jordan Mason couldn’t get loose against Arizona in Week 5 was frustrating for fantasy purposes. I get it. But a closer look at Mason’s Week 5 performance provides a little insight into how the Cards match up against the run: Mason was fifth best last week in rush yards over expected per attempt. Perhaps the Niners shouldn’t have pulled the plug on the run game so quickly.
Green Bay has proven amenable to establishing it against run funnels. I know Malik Willis started in Week 2 against the Colts and the Packers’ game plan was always going to be hugely run heavy, but the extent to which the Pack established it is worth nothing. Green Bay was 25 percent below its expected drop back rate that day. They had a 9 percent neutral pass rate.
Josh Jacobs isn’t good. There’s nothing we can do about that. Thankfully, it doesn’t matter. He should continue leading the Packers backfield here, and with positive game script, Jacobs could see 20-plus touches. With enough game script on Green Bay’s side, Emanuel Wilson could get into the mix. Wilson, with 30 touches over the past three games, is slightly more efficient than the fading Jacobs -- the kind of back who can make a lot out of a little.
You could do worse than Wilson if you’re hard up for running back options in Week 6.
