In our everlasting mission to predict the future, a top-down look at how an offense might attack their opponent’s defense is, in my humble estimation, a good place to start.
We find defenses every season that profile as a so-called run funnel, meaning opponents lean unusually hard on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: Defenses that are regularly attacked through the air in neutral situations (generally meaning when the game is within seven points either way).
Identifying those matchups is the point of this column. We’ll get better, more reliable data on how teams are attacking defenses as the season rolls on.
This funnel defense analysis should not be the end-all-be-all for how you determine your weekly fantasy plays. It is but another data point in your brain-rattling decision making on who to play and who to bench.
The NFL’s lean toward ground-and-pound football this season has created quite the unique situation for this funnel defense-centric column. Going into Week 5, there are only five true pass funnel defenses: The Patriots, Lions, Ravens, Bucs, and Packers. Every other team is either a slight run funnel or an extreme run funnel. The run is being established at levels the zoomers have never seen.
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Pass Funnel Matchups
Bengals vs. Ravens
The aforementioned Baltimore defense is snuffing out opposing rushing attacks. Only six teams are allowing fewer yards before contact per rush and only four teams are giving up a lower rush EPA through Week 4. The Bengals don’t strike me as the sort of offense that will run into that kind of brick wall in Week 5.
The Bengals last week posted the ultra-rare Cincy game in which Joe Burrow and company were under their expected drop back rate. From Week 1-3, they were 5 percent over their expected drop back rate, and in two games against the Ravens in 2023, they were 7 percent over.
Baltimore playing two high coverage at the league’s fourth highest rate probably means a game full of check downs for Burrow. That translates to a Ja’Marr Chase game. It could also be decent for the team’s tight ends and running backs, though that gets complicated because Chase Brown and Zack Moss are sharing the route running duties, as are Erick All and Mike Gesicki at tight end. Gesicki still has the usage edge. He might be interesting here.
Rams vs. Packers
Green Bay opponents are a collective 4 percent of their expected pass rate through Week 4. Offenses playing the Packers are throwing at a 57 percent rate in neutral game script (when the game is within one score). It’s not shockingly high, but it’s something.
It’s enough to maybe, just maybe push the Rams off their preferred run-first game plan. With Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua sidelined, LA has become one of the league’s most reliably run-first teams: They were 15 percent under their expected drop back rate in Week 3 and 8 percent under in Week 4. Sean McVay’s offense has dropped back on 54 percent of its offensive plays over the past two games.
Boosted pass volume — with Matthew Stafford, a drop back is a pass — should be a boon for Jordan Whittington, who led the team in targets last week, and TuTu Atwell, who had 40 percent of the Rams’ air yards in Week 4. Green Bay’s secondary has been atrocious through the season’s first month, allowing the fourth highest drop back success rate.
I’m going to take the bold stance that Jordan Love will wreck this awful Rams defense in Week 5. That would leave McVay no choice but to jack up the passing volume, as much as he desperately does not want to.
An aside on this game: The Rams have seen the first fewest pass attempts against them on the season (LA opponents are 5 percent below their expected pass rate). Green Bay could establish it pretty hard here and crush the drop back volume that served Packers pass catchers so well in Week 4. It’s something to consider.
Run Funnel Matchups
Jaguars vs. Colts
You clicked on this article because you needed permission to get crazy and start Tank Bigsby in Week 5 against the NFL’s most extreme run funnel defense. You seek said permission because you are a deranged Zero RB sicko who is down extraordinarily bad or you’re in a deep league in which it might be Bigsby or bust. I can relate to both situations.
Travis Etienne in Week 4 led the Jacksonville backfield with 10 carries to seven for Bigsby, and it was Bigsby who had the big play out of the backfield — a 58-yarder during which he showed incredible burst. Thanks in part to that long run, Bigsby is now averaging 5.5 yards after contact per carry (Etienne is at a not-hateful 2.6). Four of Bigsby’s 20 rushes this season have gone for more than ten yards. His production is solid, bordering on unreal (on a small sample, I know, I know).
There very well could be enough rushes to go around against the Colts this week. Indy opponents this year have passed the ball at a 50 percent clip, the fourth lowest mark in the league. There’s a reason the Colts have seen a league-high 151 rushes through Week 4: They stink. They’re allowing the ninth highest yards before contact per rush and a low 41 percent stuff rate. It makes a ten or 12 touches for Bigsby (very) realistic, barring weird game script if Joe Flacco is under center.
I suppose this is a good spot for the middling Etienne too.
Vikings vs. Jets
The Jets can neither sustain drives nor can they stop the run. It’s a bad combo that could lead to a tough season for Aaron Rodgers and his guys.
Only the Colts are a more pronounced run funnel defense than the Jets this season. The Broncos last week leaned all the way into this trend when they were a stunning 15 percent below their expected drop back rate, passing the ball on just 46 percent of their plays in neutral game script. We should, I think see something similar from the Vikings in Week 5.
The Jets through Week 4 have been a poor tackling team. That’s reflected in their 2.67 yards after contact per rush, the NFL’s third highest mark. That should play well for a Minnesota offense sporting the league’s eighth highest rushing success rate and eighth highest yards after contact per rush.
Kevin O’Connell has only been pass heavy (relative to game script) once in three games. He seems content with grinding it out with Aaron Jones and, to a far lesser degree, Ty Chandler (Vikings have a 51 percent pass rate while leading). O’Connell has every reason to keep Sam Darnold from throwing into the teeth of a stellar Jets secondary too. This could mean another low volume day for Darnold, Justin Jefferson, and the rest of the Minnesota passing attack.
49ers vs. Cardinals
This’ll be quick: Expect a big old heaping of Jordan Mason this week against a wretched Cardinals defense. Arizona opponents are a combined 7 percent below their expected pass rate and giving up the fifth highest EPA to opposing rushers. In Week 4, no team allowed a higher rush EPA than Arizona.
For the normies: The Cards are allowing the fifth most fantasy points to running backs.
This, of course, could very much limit drop back volume for Brock Purdy and the Niners’ pass catchers. Purdy is a screaming (positive) regression candidate, as I wrote in the The Regression Files, but Deebo Samuel and the rest could see limited target volume.