In our everlasting mission to predict the future, a top-down look at how an offense might attack their opponent’s defense is, in my humble estimation, a good place to start.
We find defenses every season that profile as a so-called run funnel, meaning opponents lean unusually hard on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: Defenses that are regularly attacked through the air in neutral situations (generally meaning when the game is within seven points either way).
Identifying those matchups is the point of this column. We’ll get better, more reliable data on how teams are attacking defenses as the season rolls on.
This funnel defense analysis should not be the end-all-be-all for how you determine your weekly fantasy plays. It is but another data point in your brain-rattling decision making on who to play and who to bench.
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Pass Funnel Defenses
49ers vs. Patriots
I didn’t mention the Patriots as a clearcut pass funnel defense in my Week 3 column because they played on Thursday night and this column doesn’t publish until Friday morning. So it goes.
New England remains a pass funnel going into Week 4 against the Niners. They are, in fact, the NFL’s most extreme pass funnel, with opponents collectively 8 percent over their expected pass rate this season. The Jets, after being 3 percent below their expected drop back rate in the season’s first two games, were 2 percent over against the Pats in Week 3.
This should set up Brock Purdy and company for a somewhat-to-very pass heavy Week 4 game. Since establishing it hard against the run-funnel Jets in Week 1, the 49ers are 2 percent above their expected drop back rate over the past two weeks. Now they square off against a Patriots defense that has seen a league-high 68 percent neutral pass rate against them in 2024. Target volume for alpha WR1 Jauan Jennings and Brandon Aiyuk should be there in Week 4 if Deebo Samuel and George Kittle remain sidelined. Jennings and Aiyuk combined for 74 percent of the team’s targets and 81 percent of the team’s air yards in Week 3 against the Rams.
Purdy should have plenty of time to operate in the pocket this week. New England’s 14 percent pressure rate ranks 27th and their QB hurry rate is one of the league’s lowest. It’s a decidedly good spot for Purdy and his pass catchers.
Eagles vs. Bucs
Tampa opponents are about 3 percent over their expected pass rate this season. Teams are happy to avoid the Bucs’ solid rush defense, which allows the sixth lowest rush yards before contact per rush and a low 39 percent rushing success rate.
I know it’s hard to imagine the Eagles, with DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown sidelined, leaning into the pass against the Bucs. I’m sure they’ll try to establish the run so hard they open a wormhole to the middle of the 20th century. If they don’t — or can’t — we could see Jalen Hurts drop back a bunch against Tampa. Dallas Goedert could see another double-digit target outing and I suppose Jahan Dotson might be a thing by default. I’m obliged to tell you Parris Campbell functioned as the Eagles’ primary slot guy for much of their Week 3 game against New Orleans. He got that run because slot WR Britain Covey broke his scapula and is out for the next month or so.
Bills vs. Ravens
I was more than a little interested to see if Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady, after conducting an unapologetically run-first offense since the middle of the 2023 season, would lean into the pass a little bit in Week 3 against the pass-funnel Jaguars.
Brady did just that. The Bills were 5 percent above their expected drop back rate on Monday night against the dead-on-arrival Jaguars after being -12 percent in Week 1 and -2 percent in Week 2. Buffalo’s neutral pass rate ticked up and Josh Allen logged a season-high 34 drop backs in a blowout win.
We could (should) see more of the same this week against Baltimore. Ravens opponents this season are 6 percent over their expected pass rate. In last week’s loss to the Ravens, Dallas’ expected drop back rate was 71 percent. Their actual drop back rate was 79 percent. The Raiders in Week 2 against the Ravens were 7 percent over their expected drop back rate.
This all makes too much sense. Baltimore allows a league-low 21.3 percent rushing success rate. Only four teams allow a lower rush yards before contact than Baltimore. While I doubt the Bills will abandon the run, a lean toward the pass should be a positive for Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir, who, according to The Athletic’s Joe Buscaglia, is Buffalo’s clearcut No. 1 wideout. The matchup makes Shakir a sneaky great play in 12-team formats.
You’re allowed to keep the faith in Kincaid, who was targeted on a hefty 31 percent of his pass routes in Week 3 against the Jaguars. More routes could lead to a Kincaid stat line that won’t make you want to quit fantasy football and enter the seminary.
We talked about this game quite a bit on Thursday’s Rotoworld Football Show.
Run Funnel Defenses
Commanders vs. Cardinals
Only the Colts are a more extreme run funnel than the Cardinals through the first three weeks of the season. We saw the Bills go 12 percent below their expected drop back rate in Week 1 against Arizona. The Lions went wildly run heavy in Week 3 against the Cards with a drop back rate of 38 percent, 19 percent below expected.
Though the Commanders are fresh off a somewhat balanced approach against the Bengals on Monday night, I expect Kliff Kingsbury to keep it on the ground whenever possible against his former team in Week 4. A mere three teams have allowed a higher rushing success rate than the Cardinals this season. Arizona opponents have averaged a league-low 42 percent neutral pass rate (when the game is within one score).
It all points to nonstop carries for Brian Robinson, whose workload will be heftier than usual with Austin Ekeler potentially sidelined with a brain injury. Robinson and Jayden Daniels, for what it’s worth, have combined for 86 percent of the Commanders’ rushing attempts through three games.
Rams vs. Bears
With Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua sidelined, the Rams went ultra run-heavy in Week 3’s stunning defeat of the 49ers. LA’s Week 3 drop back rate (54 percent) was 15 percent below expected against the Niners.
Look for a continuation of the establishment this week against a Chicago defense giving up the seventh highest yards before contact per rush. The Bears aren’t necessarily a bad rush defense (they’re eighth best in rush EPA) but they’re not the kind of brick wall that will stop Sean McVay from making Kyren Williams the centerpiece of the Rams offense. Bears opponents are collectively 6 percent below their expected pass rate on the season.
Colts vs. Steelers
The Colts are going to make every effort to hide Anthony Richardson in Week 4 and going forward after Richardson’s startling early-season struggles. Indy has a 55 percent drop back rate on the season; their expected rate is 65 percent. Only the Patriots have a lower neutral pass rate. So it goes.
Jonathan Taylor has 40 touches over the past two games with this run-first approach. That total would likely be higher if the Colts were a higher volume offense. Against a Steelers defense that ranks as the league’s fourth most pronounced run funnel, we can project Taylor for another 20-or-so touches — unless game script goes haywire and Richardson is forced to throw into the teeth of a ferocious Pittsburgh defense. The matchup and the likelihood the Colts will be run heavy make all Colts pass catchers benchable in 10 and 12-team formats. Unless (until?) Richardson is benched for Joe Flacco, Michael Pittman isn’t a top-40 fantasy option.
