Identifying players who have run particularly hot or cold in recent weeks will be the goal of his space over the 2024 NFL season.
Spotting guys who are “due” won’t always work out because my children recently lost my magic eight ball, leaving me powerless to predict the future. Nevertheless, we persist in finding NFL players who have overperformed their opportunity and those who have been on the wrong side of what we’ll call variance. Because “luck” is so crass and unsophisticated.
I’ll be upfront with you and say the Week 1 data, as always, is quite noisy and difficult to interpret with much confidence. It’s hard to be sure about a defense’s funnel tendencies after a single game. Probably this is not breaking news for you, the savvy fantasy footballer, the knower of numbers.
I’ve done my best to drill down on defenses that look like weak rush defenses or exploitable secondaries in the NFL’s opening week, weighing offensive tendencies in the funnel equation. Things will be that much clearer after Week 2. Let’s get into it.
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Pass Funnel Defenses
Vikings vs. 49ers
New season, same as the old season: The Niners are once again looking like one of the NFL’s most extreme pass funnels. The reason isn’t so complicated. San Francisco is good against the run, as evidenced in Week 1 when they allowed the second fewest yards before contact per rush and a low 5.2 percent explosive rush rate against the Jets.
Look for the Vikings to ultra pass heavy in their Week 2 matchup against the Niners. Kevin O’Connell’s team remained as pass-first as ever on opening day against the Giants, posting the NFL’s seventh highest early down pass rate. Minnesota was four percent over its expected drop back rate (they were over their expected drop back rate in 15 of 17 regular season games in 2023).
The Vikings and 49ers were among last week’s top 10 fastest paced offenses. Though the game total here has dropped by one point (to 45.5), I like its shootout potential. San Francisco was seventh last week in two high safety use after finishing 2023 in the top ten; there should be plenty of short and intermediate pass attempts from the Vikings. It could make Johnny Mundt, who last week led Minnesota tight ends in routes and targets, an interesting option in deeper formats. Jalen Nailor could see an uptick in routes and targets too, especially if Jordan Addison (ankle) is sidelined.
Many are saying it, so I will too: Let Sam Darnold Cook.
Giants vs. Commanders
Washington’s defense appears to be what we in the industry call an Everything Funnel because, well, they’re unspeakably awful in every way. In Week 1, however, the Bucs leaned hard on the pass against the Commanders to the tune of the league’s seventh highest pass rate over expected. Tampa passed on 57 percent of their plays in neutral game script against Washington.
The Giants might not have a choice but to attack the Commanders via the pass. Their run game appears nonfunctional at best and I wouldn’t be stunned to see the G-people force feed looks for Malik Nabers after a downright depressing NFL debut. I suppose this would be a positive development for the PPR scam widely known as Wan’Dale Robinson, who led the Giants with 12. targets in Week 1. 15 of Daniel Jones’ 20 pass attempts between zero and nine yards in Week 1 were deemed catchable. So he has that going for him, which is nice.
An early Washington lead could generate quite a bit of passing volume for New York: Last week, they dropped back at a 76 percent rate while trailing against Tampa.
Run Funnel Defenses
Chargers vs. Panthers
To say I’m confident in the Chargers’ ability to wreck the Carolina offense on the ground is an understatement. Everything in this game screams a Classic Greg Roman game plan of relentless ground and pound against a Panthers defensive line missing their best player.
The Saints in Week 1 had the NFL’s fifth lowest pass rate over expected against Carolina. Klint Kubiak’s offense had a 44 percent pass rate while leading last week, generating 30 running back carries. The Chargers, meanwhile, were five percent below their expected pass rate and posted the week’s eighth best rush EPA. J.K. Dobbins led all rushers in Week 1 in yards before contact per rush as LA bullied the Raiders into submission. You might say the run was established.
Here’s to hoping Dobbins — who had 10 rushes in Week 1 to 11 for Gus Edwards — gets a shot to be LA’s clear lead back in a mouth-watering matchup. Edwards, for what it’s worth, was brutally ineffective in Week 1. With the right game script, both Dobbins and Edwards could get there for fantasy purposes against the lifeless Panthers. Roman’s Chargers had a lowly 43 percent pass rate while leading last week against Vegas.
Bengals vs. Chiefs
The Chiefs — one of 2023’s most reliable run funnels — were quietly quite bad in Week 1 against the run. KC allowed the league’s second highest rushing success rate and the sixth highest yards before contact per carry to the Ravens. Baltimore’s game plan was to establish it against the Chiefs: They ran the ball at a 47 percent clip in neutral situations (when the game was within one score either way). Only six teams were more run-heavy in such situations.
Zack Moss could be in for a decent day unless game script really gets away from the Bengals, trapped in their usual September doldrums. Moss last week saw nine of 12 running back carries in the Cincinnati backfield and had the team’s only two rushing attempts inside the 10 yard line. That Moss ran more routes than backfield mate Chase Brown doesn’t hurt matters.
Cardinals vs. Rams
You’re starting James Conner, obviously, and you should know he’s in a fantastic spot against a dead-on-arrival Rams front seven that last week gave up the league’s highest rushing success rate and rush EPA — by a shockingly wide margin. The Rams were Week 1’s fifth most pronounced run funnel.
Falcons vs. Eagles
The whole plane will be made of Bijan Robinson in Week 2 against Philadelphia. With Kirk Cousins unable to move and the Falcons trying to get by while the old veteran QB’s Achilles tendon gets back to 100 percent, look for lots and lots of Bijan.
The Packers last week had a 50 percent pass rate in neutral situations against the Eagles, the tenth lowest rate in the league. It’s no wonder Green Bay attacked the Eagles on the ground: Philly allowed a league-high 4.29 yards before contact per rush. Only the Rams allowed a higher rush EPA in Week 1. Eagles opponents in 2023 had the NFL’s lowest neutral pass rate. Robinson could be in line for 30 touches this week.