Every pick could be the one that makes or breaks your fantasy team, but some selections are more fateful than others. There’s probably not much difference between Mike Evans’ floor and ceiling at this point. But Stefon Diggs? Holy range of outcomes, (don’t put Batman, don’t put Batman) Batman. Most of these potential league-deciders will be found in the early rounds, but not only the early rounds. The variance continues all the way down the board. With this exercise, I’ll attempt to identify the most boom/bust selections in each of the first eight frames. We’ll call them “The Fateful Eight,” the players most likely to swing your team one way or the other. There is no shortage of wonderful services and unique ADPs, but for the purposes of this article I’ll use Sleeper, which meets somewhere in the middle of the more hardcore and casual platforms.
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Round 1 - Jahmyr Gibbs (1.11)
(Writer’s note: This was written before Gibbs’ hamstring injury, which, at least for now, does not appear to imperil his Week 1 status.) Gibbs has no shortage of Round 1 competition — an also-injured injured Puka Nacua, a post-Arthur Bijan Robinson — but his range of outcomes is the widest amongst the top 12 players. For all Gibbs’ 2023 stretch-run glory, he never dislodged David Montgomery as the primary goal-line hammer. He was also disappointingly inefficient as a pass-catching back despite his big-play prowess, checking in 26th in running back yards per route run. Gibbs scored only one receiving touchdown all year. Fantasy managers can’t unsee Gibbs’ game-breaking ability — nor should they want to — but the Lions lack incentive to ditch the two-back approach that served them so well in 2023. That means Gibbs will have to maintain his 5.0-plus YPC while adding production in the passing game and remaining ridiculously efficient in the red zone. It’s not impossible. It’s also not the most likely outcome.
Round 2 - De’Von Achane (2.12)
Marvin Harrison is a rookie wideout going 15th overall, but this one comes down to Kyren Williams at 2.4 and De’Von Achane at 2.12. With Kyren, the risk is already priced in for last season’s RB2 overall. With Achane, nothing is certain. He is the purest boom/bust fantasy prospect in recent memory. When he’s healthy, he’s a born matchup-flipper. When he’s injured — which was often in 2023 — he’s the most obvious “how was I so foolish?” second-round selection of all time. To top it all off, coach Mike McDaniel continues to call Raheem Mostert the leader of the backfield. This is where I get a little more positive. Mostert has worn down in back-to-back years, including badly down the stretch last season. Achane was historically good as a rookie. Legendary rookies don’t tend to see smaller workloads as sophomores. Having now made it an entire year through the NFL’s meat grinder, Achane has presumably learned a thing or two about staying on the field. The downside couldn’t be more obvious. The same is true for the league-winning potential.
Round 3 - Stefon Diggs (3.6)
Or is it Nico Collins at 3.5? Either way, we know there are going to be fantasy failures in the Texans’ crowded offense. We also know even a depressed Diggs effort in 2023 still resulted in the ninth most total PPR points amongst wideouts. He was the WR14 even by average points. Was that fall-off from WR5 status in 2022 about attitude or aging? The Texans are assuming the former. If they’re right, fantasy managers will have a potential top-five receiver playing with the best young quarterback since Patrick Mahomes. If they’re wrong, Diggs will be looking like an albatross at a spot where you could have taken Deebo Samuel or DJ Moore just a few picks later.
Round 4 - Cooper Kupp (4.5)
It would be inaccurate to say Kupp became the next Michael Thomas following his historic 2021. Kupp has at least played some football games amidst the injuries, including enough to finish ahead of Diontae Johnson and Christian Kirk, amongst others, in total PPR points last season. But Kupp has not come within 150 yards of a 1,000-yard campaign since his record-setting effort, while his efficiency has declined as his age has climbed. Kupp’s 1.77 yards per route run last season were by far the lowest of his career, and a disappointing 34th amongst wideouts. The positive case comes in the form of Puka Nacua’s injury uncertainty and a skill corps that remains top-heavy. Kupp himself is healthy for once. It’s just not terribly typical to turn back the clock at age 31. If Kupp does, he could end up a WR1 you got in the fourth round.
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Round 5 - Dalton Kincaid (5.1)
The opportunity could not be more clear. The Bills have put together a potluck receiver corps in Stefon Diggs’ aftermath, hoping one of rookie Keon Coleman, free agent addition Curtis Samuel or third-year fifth-rounder Khalil Shakir emerges as the new No. 1. Or doesn’t. That’s fine if it’s someone different in the WR group every week. Which is where Kincaid comes in. Maybe the second-year first-rounder is ready for No. 1 pass-catcher status after finishing as the TE13 by average PPR points as a rookie. One problem is that he might not always even be the No. 1 seam stretcher in terms of snaps if Josh Allen BFF Dawson Knox stays on the field. Knox is not going to out-target Kincaid, but he could make it difficult for Kincaid to race ahead of his receiver competition. Kincaid averaged a modest five looks per game when Knox was healthy last season compared to 7.7 when he was sidelined. It’s reasonable to assume at least some growth there, but enough to make Kincaid a legitimate fifth-rounder? Kincaid at 5.1 is a bet on talent rather than overwhelming usage.
Round 6 - Rashee Rice (6.11)
This one is pretty simple — is the young man getting suspended or not? If so, he is properly priced as a back-end WR3. If not, he’s a league-scrambling sixth-rounder who could return more value bang for the buck than any other player, especially since his importance to the Chiefs’ offense has only increased following Marquise Brown’s shoulder injury. The fantasy football legal eagles can’t decide if and when the ban might come this summer, but I’ve always felt Alvin Kamara’s Feb. 2022 assault arrest was the best analogue. With the legal system moving typically methodically, Kamara’s three-game sabbatical did not arrive until the following year. The wheels of justice have not been turning any faster in Rice’s case. Of course, the NFL’s one truism when it comes to off-the-field issues is … it just kind of makes it up as it goes along. No assumption is safe, but at this point I am willing to gamble on the upside outcome in fantasy.
Round 7 - Zamir White (7.9)
White’s outcomes are black and white: He’s either going to become a freebie RB2 starter or “instant Alexander Mattison.” Mattison himself has a say in the matter as White’s backup. There is also rookie pass-catcher Dylan Laube. With Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell at quarterback, this is going to be a run-based offense under fire-and-brimstone coach Antonio Pierce. The volume will be there for whomever earns No. 1 status, even if it’s in a committee. Unlike many of the players on this list, White does not have league-winning upside. He will nevertheless be one of the most mispriced picks of the summer if he never relinquishes his current pole position on the depth chart.
Round 8 - Jonathon Brooks (8.7)
Brooks is an eighth-round pick who could be a three-down wrecking ball by October. Or, you know, he might not ever get the starting job. There is plenty working in Brooks’ favor. He was the top back off the board in April’s draft. The central plank of new coach Dave Canales’ Bryce Young rescue mission is re-establishing the run. Maybe every-snap backs aren’t Canales’ first choice, but he was certainly ok with it when circumstance demanded as much in Tampa Bay. Brooks’ competition, Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard, is exceedingly weak. It’s just all about Brooks’ health and post-rehab progress as he tries to get up to NFL speed. If he’s a fast learner, fantasy leagues will be turned on their heads.
