You are on the clock and can’t spot any discernible difference between Option A and Option B. You need a tiebreaker. Overall offensive environment is one of the best places to start. Although some of the very worst teams can still produce elite fantasy options, we generally want players in good offenses with good quarterbacks. Shocking, I know. With the caveat that this is a highly subjective exercise and that the criteria sometimes felt like a moving target even to myself, here is my crack at ranking this year’s fantasy offenses 1-32. I have also included a “fantasy dark horse” for each team.
32. Panthers
Can Adam Thielen resurrect his career with a 5-foot-10 rookie quarterback? Can Miles Sanders start catching passes again? That’s coming up later in the show, but first, 31 other things that actually matter.
Fantasy dark horse: Jonathan Mingo. Well, at least as much as the No. 39 overall pick can be a dark horse. The fantasy case for every Panther not named Miles Sanders requires a conspiracy board. Mingo’s — good, young, real life draft capital — necessitates the fewest leaps in logic.
31. Texans
This isn’t your grandfather-passed-out-asleep-at-2:22 PM ET-watching-the-2022-Texans Texans. There’s now a real coaching staff and a serious talent infusion. Rex Burkhead isn’t on the roster. That doesn’t change the fact that it’s a blind rebuild from a fantasy perspective, one including a rookie quarterback. It’s not implausible the No. 1 receiver could be sophomore John Metchie, who didn’t even play in 2022 as he recovered from illness. The upside isn’t just unknown, it’s likely unattainable in 2023.
Fantasy dark horse: Nathaniel Dell. Fantasy sickos are probably too excited about the 23-year-old, group-of-five Day 2 prospect — no one has ever been ready to “miss me yet?” harder than Robert Woods — but Dell is the wildest wild card in a skill corps full of them.
30. Cardinals
The Cardinals are no ordinary tire fire. The smoldering white flames can be observed from outer space. They just happen to have a few actually good players in James Conner and Marquise Brown. There is also the specter of a mid-season Kyler Murray return in a more intelligently designed offense. That star power and upside hope should keep the Birds out of the fantasy cellar.
Fantasy dark horse: Michael Wilson. Cardinals reporter Johnny Venerable came on the Rotoworld Football Show and made the case that Arizona is moving on from Kliff Kingsbury’s pint-sized gadget men in favor of a bigger skill corps. 6-foot-2 rookie Wilson was the only receiver flier the new front office got to take, and he has been blowing up camp. He will be put in position to earn snaps and targets.
29. Patriots
The Patriots have one elite fantasy player in Rhamondre Stevenson, but not so elite that they haven’t stopped trying to sign touch competition. Leonard Fournette or Ezekiel Elliott wouldn’t cut the heart out of Stevenson’s RB1 case, but they would make him just one more uncertain bet in an offense already full of them. Beyond Stevenson are a bunch of players who can max out as a WR3 or streaming tight end option. More likely is WR4 for JuJu Smith-Schuster and the TE18-24 range for either Hunter Henry or Mike Gesicki.
Fantasy dark horse: Kevin Harris seems first in line to serve as Stevenson’s 1B should the Pats fail to sign a free agent. Whomever lands the role figures to bungle into occasional FLEX appeal.
28. Packers
There are prayers. Is there hope? The Packers are turning the keys over to 24-year-old Jordan Love, who has 83 career pass attempts. The last time he played a full season, he had 20 touchdown passes and 17 interceptions. Although a solid athlete, Love is not a dual-threat. He is also dealing with the same skill corps that turned Aaron Rodgers from a back-to-back MVP winner into clock puncher who couldn’t wait to get out of town. There is intrigue and upside in the Christian Watson-led receiver group, but too much of it is theoretical. Watson himself will be hard-pressed to match last year’s efficiency.
Fantasy dark horse: Luke Musgrave. Dubbed “the biggest fast guy I’ve ever seen” by coach Matt LaFleur, Musgrave appears poised to start. He offers big-play upside at a nonexistent ADP.
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27. Rams
The Matthew Stafford expanded fantasy points universe was producing flops before the first hit was even done screening. Stafford was already on fumes even as Cooper Kupp was rewriting the receiver record book down the stretch of the 2021 season. Last year was a complete fiasco and the cavalry has not arrived for 2023. It’s all on Stafford-to-Kupp and a hopefully-resurgent Cam Akers. The dream for any additional upside rests on Tutu Atwell’s 5-foot-9, 165-pound shoulders.
Fantasy dark horse: Tutu Atwell. He did at least make some plays when given the opportunity last year. Atwell is a more promising waiver wire shot in the dark than rookie Puka Nacua.
26. Bucs
The 2022 Seahawks on steroids, the Bucs’ quarterback problems have them looking loaded with stranded assets. With Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask routinely going viral for training camp inaccuracy, there doesn’t seem to be a Geno Smith walking through that door. This is still an NFL offense. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin aren’t going to suddenly stop scoring fantasy points. We just have no way of knowing how severe the Mayfield/Trask penalty should be.
Fantasy dark horse: Chase Edmonds. Although Rachaad White continues to look like a three-down back, he was seriously inefficient as a rookie even with Tom Brady at the controls. It should surprise no one were this to become a committee, one where Edmonds commanded enough touches to get back in the FLEX mix. To be clear, that is not the most likely outcome, and White looks like a summer bargain.
25. Steelers
The Steelers’ ever-loyal press corps is putting a brave face on Kenny Pickett’s supposed second-year development. He’s going deep more. He’s developing chemistry with Allen Robinson. He’s a gamer. Perhaps all of that will be true. It doesn’t change the reality that this is one of the league’s shallower skill corps. There’s also an emerging committee in the backfield, one that could kneecap Najee Harris’ RB2 value while still not providing enough fantasy points for Jaylen Warren to be relevant.
Fantasy dark horse: Jaylen Warren. Warren probably isn’t a “dark horse” by the letter of the law. He’s the RB45 right now on Underdog. I just don’t see the path for Calvin Austin or Darnell Washington. Warren will be a top-36 PPR back if he can consolidate last year’s third-down snaps.
24. Colts
The Colts have the potential No. 1 overall player … who isn’t practicing. They have the potential No. 1 overall rookie … who is a quarterback who might not get to pass much. They have Michael Pittman and … not much else in the skill corps. Alec Pierce and Josh Downs both have theoretical upside, but it will be difficult to reach in what promises to be a run-heavy offense.
Fantasy dark horse: Alec Pierce. The odds Pierce becomes Indy’s new No. 1 receiver aren’t high, but they also aren’t zero percent.
23. Giants
All the Giants have the same problem: Where is the ceiling going to come from beyond Saquon Barkley? Daniel Jones had a 2022 career year under new coach Brian Daboll and still couldn’t crack the top 12 at quarterback. His receiver corps is deeper for 2023 but continues to lack high-end talent. 30-year-old Darren Waller offers more upside at tight end but has missed 14 games over the past two years.
Fantasy dark horse: Jalin Hyatt. You could list almost any Giants wideout, but we might as well bet on the youngest, one who was a big-play machine in college and might have been a first-round pick in another life. Hyatt comes from a rudimentary system where his production was about scheme as much as skill, but Daboll is also a master of that art form.
22. Falcons
The Falcons have hitched three Ferraris to a horse and buggy. Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts and Drake London are each former top-eight picks with immense individual upside. Best of luck to the Falcons tapping it with Desmond Ridder at quarterback. Robinson’s likely workload alone is enough to keep Falcons out of the fantasy basement, but Ridder will be a serious hindrance to Pitts reaching his ceiling or London serving as a consistent WR2.
Fantasy dark horse: Beyond the Falcons’ big three, no skill player has a plausible path to carving out standalone fantasy value. It would take injury ahead of them for Tyler Allgeier or Mack Hollins to get on the radar.
21. Raiders
The Raiders have a pair of fantasy superstars in Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs but questions about their ultimate 2023 ceilings. Adams is currently being treated as the WR10 by Underdog’s ultra-sharp drafting crew. He has not finished that low since he was the WR9 in 2017. Adams was the WR6 by average PPR points in 2022. For his part, unsigned franchise player Jacobs has yet to report to training camp. Concerning, but Adams and Jacobs should both remain top-12 players at their positions even if they underachieve. That’s good news since they are the only bankable fantasy commodities the Raiders have this season.
Fantasy dark horse: Michael Mayer. Free agent addition Jakobi Meyers duplicates many of Adams’ strengths, except worse. That’s a difficult way to make a PPR living. Mayer at least provides a contrast, one that could quickly make hay as a 6-foot-4 seam target.
20. Broncos
I’m having an easy time envisioning Russell Wilson bouncing back under Sean Payton, perhaps too easy. The problem is, I’m still not sure what that even means. Finishing as the QB14 would constitute a major bounce-back for last year’s mega-bust, for instance. I’m also not sure how things will shake out with Wilson’s skill corps. Jerry Jeudy was on the trade block before he wasn’t. Tim Patrick was a coaching staff favorite before he got injured. Javonte Williams is healthy, except for if he isn’t. Payton didn’t know who Greg Dulcich was before deciding he liked him. It’s also possible that the overall offensive environment improves dramatically but there are not as many individual winners as we would like because Wilson and Payton spread the touches wealth.
Fantasy dark horse: Marvin Mims. Mims certainly isn’t a dark horse to managers who spent the summer grinding best ball drafts. For re-draft, he is the lone wideout actually selected by this coaching staff. Mims won’t be a PPR cheat code, but his big plays will have the potential to win weeks if he gets on the field.
19. Saints
The Saints are a strange brew of intriguing young talent and last-gasp veterans. Chris Olave could be one of the breakthrough players of the year, but Michael Thomas is healthy and trying to pick up where he left off in 2019. Kendre Miller was one of the draft’s more exciting Day 2 backs, but Alvin Kamara’s three-game suspension ended up being on the short side. While Kamara is sidelined, it will be pricey free agent addition Jamaal Williams handling the bulk of the work. At the center of it all is Derek Carr, who provides a nice floor but hard-capped ceiling. The Saints are the definition of good-but-not-great for fantasy.
Fantasy dark horse: Rashid Shaheed. Juwan Johnson is probably a more likely tier jumper, but Shaheed was a scarily-efficient big-play machine as a rookie. He’s a higher-upside bet, albeit one currently battling a groin injury.
18. Commanders
There is more here than meets the eye. An under-drafted alpha in Terry McLaurin. An ascendant second-year first-round pick in Jahan Dotson. A reorganized backfield with a clear early-down option in Brian Robinson and potential upgrade in the “J.D. McKissic role” in Antonio Gibson. That is to say nothing of the new forged-by-Mahomesian-fire OC Eric Bieniemy. It all comes down to sophomore starting dual-threat Sam Howell. If he even modestly exceeds expectations, everyone in this skill corps will overperform ADP. If he’s the QB27, it will be a nightmare for a talented group of players.
Fantasy dark horse: Sam Howell. Howell’s ADP hasn’t taken flight because of persistent Jacoby Brissett whispers. He is the starter, however, and even if he doesn’t end up helping his teammates, his running ability will make him streamer relevant.
17. Bears
It seems strange to have the Bears this “high,” but there’s a non-zero percent chance Justin Fields scores more fantasy points than any player in football. D.J. Moore is barely being drafted as a WR2 but could finish as a WR1 if the Bears’ passing attack shows even modest improvement. Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool are spiked-week bench options, and Cole Kmet is an eat-your-vegetables TE1/2.
Fantasy dark horse: Roschon Johnson. Even if he currently profiles as the RB3, Johnson has by far the most overall upside in this rebuilding running back room. Earning camp raves for his pass protection, Johnson is a textbook zero-RB target.
16. Jets
The Jets have a new sheriff in town. Are there enough deputies to keep managers supplied with fantasy points? Garrett Wilson is a no-brainer. Breece Hall is close. Beyond that are role-playing receivers and committee backs who might only have a role for as long as Hall is finalizing his recovery from a torn ACL. Even the tight end room is committee-fied. As for the man in charge, Aaron Rodgers is coming off his worst season since his first year as a starter in 2008. If — when? — he rebounds, it will be in an offense that has stressed balance, potentially limiting his avenues to return to QB1 status.
Fantasy dark horse: Bam Knight. It seems clear Hall won’t be ready for his regular workload to begin the year, and that Knight has become the coaching staff’s second favorite. Even once Hall is 100 percent, Knight could get some of the tougher touches as the Jets look to keep their gifted sophomore healthy.
15. Titans
The Titans are the story of two aging superstars and two ascendant sophomores. Holding it all together is an increasingly-elderly Ryan Tannehill. It’s a high-wire approach, but one that should make for predictable fantasy point allocation if everyone stays healthy.
Fantasy dark horse: Kyle Philips. Likely to literally slot in between DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks, Philips has bulked up and earned the praise of WRs coach Rob Moore. He could stack up some cheap PPR points as a WR4/5.
14. Browns
Deshaun Watson is primed for his first full season since 2020. When last we left him there, he was playing at an MVP level. This Browns skill corps is better than Watson’s final group from Houston. Nick Chubb will be the best running back he has ever played with, while Amari Cooper is probably a better No. 1 than 2020 Brandin Cooks. David Njoku is a top-10 fantasy tight end, and Elijah Moore offers wild card upside. Jerome Ford, Cedric Tillman and Donovan Peoples-Jones all have merit as “free” fliers.
Fantasy dark horse: Cedric Tillman. An aged rookie (23) who had only one good year in a marathon college career, Tillman is nevertheless one of the most intriguing, genuinely large (6-foot-3, 213 pounds) outside prospects in this year’s class. Watson has always known what to do down the field.
13. Lions
Last year’s No. 5 overall scoring team returns with a lean target tree and remade backfield. I do feel a bit leery about hitting on 17 with Jared Goff after what was probably his Lions career year, but it is easy to trust this coaching staff. Amon-Ra St. Brown can’t fail, and each of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have strong top-24 running back cases. Sam LaPorta could crash the top 12 at tight end. If not for Jameson Williams washing out, this group would probably be a little higher.
Fantasy dark horse: Kalif Raymond has been known to run a PPR scam or two. He remains a strong fit in an offense that wants Goff to be a station-to-station point guard.
12. Ravens
The Ravens are going to pass more. They are going to play faster. What had been one of the league’s most embarrassing receiver corps now has first-round rookie Zay Flowers running alongside former first-rounder Rashod Bateman and free agent reclamation project Odell Beckham. That is to say nothing of Mark Andrews. J.K. Dobbins is another year removed from his catastrophic knee injury and Lamar Jackson doesn’t have to worry about his contract anymore. 2019 is never coming back in Baltimore, but this is the closest we are ever going to get.
Fantasy dark horse: Keaton Mitchell. Justice Hill isn’t going to be the third-down back, and it’s possible the Ravens would like to keep Dobbins off his feet in obvious passing situations. Mitchell is a big-play barn-burner who belongs on watch lists.
11. Vikings
You may not like it, but this is what peak fantasy performance starts to look like. The Vikings have fantasy’s No. 1 overall player in Justin Jefferson, a top-five tight end in T.J. Hockenson, a top-20 running back in Alexander Mattison, one of the most intriguing rookies in Jordan Addison, and yes, a borderline QB1 in Kirk Cousins. Further down the board, each of K.J. Osborn, Ty Chandler and DeWayne McBride could come into 2023 relevance.
Fantasy dark horse: Ty Chandler or DeWayne McBride. This is one of the most critical backup competitions in the league. With the Vikes desperate for more efficiency in the run game, Mattison’s change-of-pace complement could end up with some high-value handles.
10. Seahawks
A team beloved for its narrow touch distribution has gotten deeper for 2023, but with blue chip prospects. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is blowing up training camp and making the Seahawks look like the rare team capable of providing three top-36 receivers. In the backfield, Zach Charbonnet has Pete Carroll’s squad appearing ready to produce a pair of top-36 backs. Charbonnet could begin as a weekly FLEX while Kenneth Walker still projects as a top-18 option. With so much talent at his disposal, Geno Smith might actually be able to match what initially felt like an outlier 2022.
Fantasy dark horse: Kenny McIntosh. Walker’s punishing rushing style could make it difficult to stay healthy. Seventh-rounder McIntosh would get a shot in a committee were Walker to go down.
9. Jaguars
One of fantasy’s deepest units, the Jags are only “held back” by their comparatively low individual ceilings. Trevor Lawrence probably won’t be a top-five quarterback. Travis Etienne probably won’t be a top-eight running back. It’s going to be difficult for Evan Engram to repeat last year’s TE7 finish with so much target competition. Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk could struggle to provide consistent top-18 returns as they battle for looks with Zay Jones and company. But what I just described is bankable floor at every one of fantasy’s primary positions.
Fantasy dark horse: Tank Bigsby. It’s not the greatest sign for Etienne that his new early-down competition is literally named Tank. Bigsby is an insurance back who could have standalone value from the jump.
8. Dolphins
With two WR1s and an upside QB1, the Dolphins offer some of fantasy’s highest-end talent. They will get back to you on the rest of it. Dalvin Cook would inject more certainty into a confusing backfield committee. There isn’t a tight end or No. 3 receiver to speak of. It’s possible one of Braxton Berrios or Chosen Anderson end up seeing legitimate targets behind Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Fantasy dark horse: Jeff Wilson. The Dolphins’ No. 3 runner by summer ADP, Wilson is arguably the favorite for goal-line carries in this high-powered offense.
7. Cowboys
The Cowboys have lost not-so-secret weapon OC Kellen Moore but upgraded at receiver with Brandin Cooks sliding in alongside CeeDee Lamb. No. 3 Michael Gallup could return to WR3/4 relevance as he is another year removed from his ACL injury. The loss of Ezekiel Elliott is addition by subtraction in the backfield, though it does downgrade this group in fantasy. Whereas the Cowboys consistently produced a pair of top-24 backs a season ago, there is no one to pair with Tony Pollard. Second-year pro Jake Ferguson has some streamer juice at tight end.
Fantasy dark horse: Malik Davis. I wanted to say Deuce Vaughn, but there is no plausible path to rookie re-draft value for the K-State product. Davis will inherit some of Elliott’s lost work. The question is if it will be enough to crash the FLEX ranks at running back.
6. Bills
Josh Allen maintains the highest individual upside in all of fantasy football. Stefon Diggs is a set-and-forget top-five wideout. They are the only sure things in a surprisingly-unsettled elite offense. Who is the No. 2 passing-game target, Gabe Davis or Dalton Kincaid? How much runway will be given to second-year back James Cook? Is the No. 2 runner Damien Harris or Latavius Murray? There will be fantasy points beyond Allen and Diggs, but it could take longer than expected to figure out where they are coming from.
Fantasy dark horse: Trent Sherfield. The ex-Dolphin seems to have the lead in the Bills’ low-wattage slot competition, which also includes Khalil Shakir and Deonte Harty. Were any of the three to end up dominating snaps, it would create PPR value.
5. 49ers
The 49ers have potential No. 1 overall player Christian McCaffrey, week-winner George Kittle and a pair of WR2s in Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Holding it all together is an elbow(not quite)-reconstructed Brock Purdy, whose interceptions had a proclivity to be dropped last season. How Purdy’s health — and luck — hold up in 2023 will tell the 49ers’ fantasy tale. There is risk here that doesn’t exist in Kansas City, etc.
Fantasy dark horse: Jordan Mason. The second-year UDFA seems to have a real shot at unseating the always-injured Elijah Mitchell as the No. 2 running back. In addition to elite insurance potential, Mason could create standalone value if the 49ers decide to limit McCaffrey’s exposure to between-the-tackles hits.
4. Chiefs
The Chiefs have the No. 1 overall quarterback and No. 1 overall receiver. Isiah Pacheco is an upside RB2 and Jerick McKinnon a lifehack PPR RB3. That is enough to paper over a receiver corps that could produce frustratingly little fantasy value in 2023. Patrick Mahomes has grown too comfortable spreading the ball around, making any of Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, etc. more of a “flag plant” pick than rational exercise. We just don’t know how these targets are going to shake out.
Fantasy dark horse: Justyn Ross. You probably know Ross’ story by now. He would have been a first-round pick if not for injury, so on and so forth. A 2022 medical redshirt, Ross arguably has the most upside of any non-Toney wideout. He could also be left off the 53-man roster.
3. Chargers
An offense with an elite quarterback and running back wants to join the Seahawks in potentially supplying three top-36 wideouts. Quentin Johnston has cooperated with a strong camp, one filled with long touchdowns. Tight end Gerald Everett could also get back in fantasy managers’ good graces under new OC Kellen Moore. A skill corps that has never been hurting for high-end talent is deeper in 2023.
Fantasy dark horse: Whoever wins the No. 2 running back job. There just isn’t much breakthrough potential in this well-defined offense. Joshua Kelley, Isaiah Spiller and Larry Rountree remain the trio vying to back up Austin Ekeler.
2. Bengals
With an elite QB1, two WR1s and a borderline RB1, the Bengals have a legitimate case for the top spot. Joe Burrow has enough reps with this supporting cast that his summer calf injury should not be an early-season concern. The only question is whether an ancillary piece like Irv Smith or Tyler Boyd can create some standalone value.
Fantasy dark horse: Chase Brown. Mixon’s return was not a given. Despite offseason coaching staff hype, Trayveon Williams handled the ball 55 total times during the entirety of his rookie contract. Brown looks like an insurance back who could end up carving out a role of his own.
1. Eagles
The Eagles are the holy grail because they pair locked-in high-end production with predictability. Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are all amongst the most important players at their positions. They are also the only players at those positions in Philadelphia. There will be no flies in the ointment. At the one position that is unsettled, running back, Rashaad Penny and D’Andre Swift are highly volatile, but also potentially profitable. There is a good chance this backfield ends up producing two weekly top-30 options.
Fantasy dark horse: Kenneth Gainwell. The lone holdover “system knower” in the Eagles’ backfield, Gainwell is also a coaching staff favorite without Penny or Swift’s injury baggage. He had a penchant for earning important snaps in 2022.
